New York natural gas case study, New York City and Westchester. October 2026

New York City and Westchester natural gas capacity: the utilities design with no reserve margin and rely on delivered services for about 4% of peak demand through 2027

Con Edison and O&R said in May 2025 that their gas systems are designed with no reserve margin for loss of supply on a peak day, and their November 2023 plan shows delivered services, bought each winter, at 78 MDt per day, 4% of peak demand, in winter 2026-2027 with only the Tennessee East 300 project in service, falling to 16 MDt, 1%, once Iroquois ExC is also in service.

4%Delivered services as a share of peak demand, winter 2026-2027, Con Edison and O&R joint system, 2023 plan
1,635 MDtCon Edison's actual peak day load, December 2025, Con Edison system, per Con Edison and O&R
62,500 Dt per dayIroquois ExC capacity for Con Edison's Hunts Point citygate, per the 2023 plan; not yet in service
No reserve marginCon Edison and O&R design basis is N-0, not N-1, per their May 2025 update

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated .

Metro used: this page covers the part of the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ metropolitan statistical area (OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, July 21, 2023) served by Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc. (Con Edison) and Orange and Rockland Utilities, Inc. (O&R), whose records are the New York Public Service Commission's (the Commission's) Case 23-G-0147. Con Edison says it provides gas service in Manhattan, the Bronx, portions of Queens and portions of Westchester County, which gives New York, Bronx and Westchester counties and part of Queens County; O&R delivers gas through two separate systems, one of them in Rockland County.1 Queens County is split between Con Edison and National Grid: Con Edison says it serves portions of Queens, and PA Consulting says National Grid's KEDNY serves parts of Queens and KEDLI the Rockaway Peninsula; the Department of Public Service county table lists both Con Edison and National Grid for Queens. The record read does not split Queens by neighbourhood and this page does not assign places inside it.2 Brooklyn (Kings County) and Staten Island (Richmond County) are covered on the Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island page: PA Consulting says National Grid's KEDNY serves them, while the Department of Public Service county table lists Con Edison for Richmond County and the EIA-176 crosswalk used in the first New York City run lists Con Edison for Kings and Richmond, so the sources differ and neither page assigns their gas utility beyond stating this.2 Putnam County is listed in the county table for Central Hudson Gas & Electric Corporation (Central Hudson) and New York State Electric & Gas Corporation; Central Hudson's gas-only Carmel district is in Putnam County, and Central Hudson's Mahopac Gate is in Somers, Westchester County.3 Central Hudson's record is system-wide and is read on the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh page; Putnam County stays a partial gap here, and so does Orange and Rockland's part of the territory beyond Rockland County, which is covered on that page. Northern New Jersey is covered on the Northern New Jersey page. Confidence is Medium because the figures are system-wide plans that the utilities and the Commission do not allocate by county; they are the most local figures the record has, and each is labeled by its geography.

Key takeaways

  • Con Edison and O&R said in May 2025 that the design basis for their gas systems is N-0, not N-1, that 100% of gas supply resources are assumed available to meet peak design day demand, and that loss of an interstate pipeline, compressor station or gate station is likely to result in loss of gas supply to firm customers on a design winter day.1
  • The November 2023 plan lists delivered services, which grew to 18% of peak demand needs in winter 2019/2020, at 78 MDt per day (4%) in winter 2026-2027 if only East 300 is in service and 16 MDt per day (1%) if Iroquois ExC is also in service, and projects them to be eliminated by winter 2028/2029 with both projects.1
  • The Tennessee East 300 project, 115,000 Dt per day, was fully in service on November 16, 2023 and allowed the Westchester moratorium on new customer load, in place since March 15, 2019, to be lifted; Con Edison and O&R said they do not project the need for any new service moratoria.1
  • Iroquois ExC would add 62,500 Dt per day for Con Edison; the 2023 plan said it was not expected in service before November 2025, the Commission said in September 2024 that it was not yet in service, and National Grid said in May 2026 that it expects ExC in service for November 2027 and that Iroquois was awaiting a Connecticut permit.14
  • The plan lists a first peak demand forecast series of 1,713 MDt per day for Con Edison and 232 for O&R in 2027, a joint 1,945 MDt per day by calculation, and the Commission said in September 2024 that the Companies expect firm design day demand to peak in about 2027 and then begin to decrease.1
  • Con Edison's actual peak day load was 1,635 MDt on December 26, 2025 and O&R's was 218 MDt on February 7, 2026; the update does not state either as a share of design day.1

Which parts of the record fall inside the New York City and Westchester area?

The table sorts the record by place, using each utility's own territory statement, the Department of Public Service county table and the county lists above. None of the filings allocates its figures to counties.12

Where Utility and what was read
New York (Manhattan), Bronx and Westchester counties Con Edison: long-term plan, 2025 and 2026 updates, Commission order of September 2024 and PA Consulting's report, system-wide and joint with O&R
Queens County, part Con Edison and National Grid both listed; places inside Queens are not assigned (National Grid's record is on the Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island page)
Rockland County O&R: Rockland system, covered by the same joint plan and order; Sloatsburg is in Rockland County
Putnam County Central Hudson and New York State Electric & Gas Corporation listed; Central Hudson's Carmel gas-only district is in Putnam County; no Putnam figure read
Kings and Richmond counties On the Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island page; the sources differ on Richmond and Kings

Utility records by whether they fall inside this area (OMB delineation). Source: utility filings in the Notes; Department of Public Service county table (October 2022); USGS GNIS.2

System context: upstream pipeline events, Central Hudson's system and the statewide Commission findings below are not specific to this area.

Has New York City and Westchester had gas supply problems since 2020?

The record documents one event in this area's winters. In December 2022, during Winter Storm Elliott, the Commission said National Grid and Con Edison required interruptible customers, including power generators, to move to alternate fuels and coordinated a public appeal to reduce gas use, and that their final available action would have been to curtail firm customers; the Commission's wording about the 30 minutes before curtailment of 30,000 customers is about National Grid and is on the Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island page.4 The Con Edison and O&R updates read report no later supply event. In its November 2023 plan O&R said that, at the moment, it does not have any gas supply constraints, after describing a 2020 concern in the Sloatsburg area about firm service to two potential large customers that had not materialized.1

How much spare gas capacity does New York City and Westchester have on the coldest day?

Major natural gas pipelines serving New York City and Westchester N Iroquois Gas Transmission Iroquois Gas Transmission Tennessee Gas Pipeline Tennessee Gas Pipeline Texas Eastern Texas Eastern Other transmission pipelines in the EIA layer (interstate and intrastate; unlabeled) Pipeline named in a verified claim on this page (labeled, one color each) Metro counties (boundary used on this page) Major highways (for orientation)
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving New York-Newark-Jersey City. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

Con Edison and O&R. The Commission's September 2024 order says Con Edison and O&R have 77 individual pipeline and storage contracts in service providing 1,794 MDt per day of capacity to their gate stations, and that they expect firm design day demand to peak in about 2027 and then begin to decrease.3 The plan's Appendix B lists peak demand forecast series for Con Edison and for O&R; the text extract does not carry the series labels, and the first series, read here as the Reference Case because it peaks about 2027 as the plan's text says, gives 1,713 MDt per day for Con Edison and 232 for O&R in 2027, 1,945 MDt per day jointly by calculation (illustrative).1 The plan's Figure 28, titled "Con Edison and O&R Forecasted Growth Requires No New Citygate Commitments," draws the supply stack against the design peak as an image with no table of values, so a numeric reserve margin is not established here; the plan says East 300 and ExC together will provide sufficient additional citygate pipeline capacity to reliably meet firm customer peak demand over the full planning horizon.1

Winter Delivered services, East 300 only, MDt per day (share of peak demand) Delivered services, East 300 and ExC, MDt per day (share)
2026-2027 78 (4%) 16 (1%)
2028-2029 67 (3%) 5 (0%)

Con Edison and O&R plan of November 2023, Figure 29, joint system, as printed; the plan lists 0 in both columns from winter 2033-2034.1

The Companies said in May 2025 that their design basis is N-0, not N-1, with no reserve margin for loss of supply on a peak day, and that 100% of gas supply resources are assumed available to meet peak design day demand.1 Con Edison's actual peak day load was 1,635 MDt on December 26, 2025 and O&R's was 218 MDt on February 7, 2026; the update does not state either as a share of design day.1 PA Consulting, the consultant to the Commission's Staff, wrote that for winter 2027-28 either East 300 or ExC must be in service for Con Edison's forecasted design day demand; East 300 has been in service since November 2023.3

What is driving new natural gas demand?

The filings read name no new large load by customer or service date; the Commission's September 2024 order and the plan expect firm design day demand to peak in about 2027.13 A search of other official records found two planned natural gas-fired generator records in the New York counties of the whole metro, both at New York University's central plant in New York County, 4 MW in total with a planned year of 2026, and no Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pipeline notice naming any metro county with a pipeline docket number since January 1, 2025.5

Are upgrades arriving in time?

For Con Edison, the Commission's September 2024 order says the Tennessee East 300 project, in service since November 2023, allowed the moratorium on new customer load that began on March 15, 2019 to be lifted, and that the Iroquois ExC project was not yet in service.3 The plan said ExC would add 62,500 Dt per day for Con Edison's Hunts Point citygate in the Bronx and, in November 2023, did not expect it before November 2025, because it had not yet received all required approvals from the New York or Connecticut state environmental agencies; National Grid said in May 2026 that Iroquois had the necessary FERC and New York State authorization, was awaiting a Connecticut permit, and that ExC is expected in service for November 2027.14 The Con Edison and O&R updates read give no newer in-service date. The plan also says the on-system Queens Transmission Project, with existing pipeline capacity bought at the Texas Eastern LM citygate, increased the supply portfolio serving the Bronx, mid-upper Manhattan and Queens and decreased reliance on delivered services; it gives no cost.1 The one budget in the record is the $250 million Westchester Clean Energy Investment Program that NYSERDA, the Commission and the New York Power Authority announced in 2019 to reduce demand and accommodate new customers.1

What does this mean for business gas costs?

The record read for this area states no cost or allocation among customer classes for Con Edison's or O&R's supply resources, and the one budget it states, the $250 million Westchester Clean Energy Investment Program, is a demand reduction program and not a gas supply cost.1 The rate cases that set cost allocation were not read for this page.

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

The record shows interruptible service ending first in practice. In Winter Storm Elliott National Grid and Con Edison required interruptible customers to move to alternate fuels before the last step of curtailing firm customers.4 The tariffs that set the order of interruption for Con Edison and O&R were not read for this page.

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

National layer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for, among other areas, the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions, a discussion that names regions and not counties, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%.B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.A1

Regional layer. This area lies in EIA's East storage region, whose working gas EIA's weekly storage table, released October 22, 2026, lists at 900 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 16, 2026; EIA's weekly report, which carries the five-year-average comparison, could not be read by script.C1 The nearest regional price EIA publishes is its New York state citygate series, 8.07 dollars per thousand cubic feet for July 2026, the latest month in the series, while its Henry Hub spot price for the week ending October 23, 2026 was 3.28 dollars per million Btu on the first day reported.C2C3 On the Tennessee Gas Pipeline, whose East 300 project serves Con Edison's Westchester gates, the critical notices list shows pipeline conditions notice 405255, restrictions for the October 27, 2026 timely cycle, listed on October 26, 2026; the list holds only postings dated October 24, 25 and 26, 2026.C4 Notices from the Iroquois pipeline, whose ExC project would serve Con Edison's Hunts Point citygate, and from the Texas Eastern pipeline could not be read by script and are not established here. These are national and regional facts, not statements about Con Edison's or O&R's systems, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

Policy context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level, a factor or a trigger. Sources are listed separately under Policy sources.

New York City's Local Law 154 of 2021 adds a section to Title 24 of the Administrative Code, under which no person shall permit the combustion of any substance that emits 25 kilograms or more of carbon dioxide per million British thermal units within a building subject to it, with exceptions that include a building of fewer than seven stories whose construction documents application was submitted on or before December 31, 2023, and a building of seven stories or more with an application on or before July 1, 2027.[P1] A New York State Department of Public Service Staff white paper dated February 27, 2025 on the All-Electric Buildings Act (Part RR of Chapter 56 of the Laws of 2023) says the Act's provisions apply to new buildings seven stories or less, with exceptions, effective December 31, 2025 and will apply to all new buildings effective December 31, 2028, and, as applied by the Code Council, to building permit applications substantially complete as of December 31, 2025; the paper's date is February 2025, and the Act's current status was not confirmed from an official source for this page.[P2]

What is the outlook for New York City and Westchester gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for New York City and Westchester natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): Con Edison and O&R design with no reserve margin and rely on delivered services for 4% of peak demand in winter 2026-2027, a thin margin, and no further fix is approved or scheduled, since East 300 is already in service and Iroquois ExC still awaits its Connecticut permit, though the figures are system-wide. Documented risk factors: one recent supply event (Winter Storm Elliott, December 2022), which is a single factor and does not raise the level. Three developments would change the assessment: the Connecticut permit, construction and in-service dates for Iroquois ExC against the November 2027 date National Grid gave, and Con Edison's and O&R's May 2027 annual update; any statement of Con Edison's design day supply stack and reserve in numbers; any Commission action on a moratorium or reserve margin, or a repeat of the supply cuts of Winter Storm Elliott.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What should New York City and Westchester facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Which service. Confirm whether each site takes firm or interruptible service; the record shows interruptible customers moved to alternate fuels in Winter Storm Elliott.
  • Which utility. Confirm whether the site is served by Con Edison, National Grid, O&R or another utility, because the records differ by utility and Queens is served by more than one.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Upcoming proceedings. Track the in-service date of Iroquois ExC and the annual updates in the Commission's long-term plan case for Con Edison and O&R.

Frequently asked questions

Will New York City and Westchester businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The record does not show a shortage. Con Edison and O&R design with no reserve margin, and loss of an interstate pipeline, compressor station or gate station is likely to result in loss of gas supply to firm customers on a design winter day, in their words; this page makes no prediction about outages.

Is there spare gas capacity in New York City and Westchester on the coldest day?

Con Edison and O&R state no numeric reserve; their plan shows delivered services of 78 MDt per day, 4% of peak demand, in winter 2026-2027 with East 300 only, and says East 300 and ExC together provide sufficient citygate capacity over the planning horizon.

What is Iroquois ExC, and when is it expected?

Iroquois ExC would add 125,000 Dt per day, split equally between Con Edison's Hunts Point citygate and National Grid's South Commack citygate; National Grid said in May 2026 that it expects ExC in service for November 2027 and that Iroquois was awaiting a Connecticut permit.

Did the Commission find a gas supply deficiency in New York City or Westchester?

The record read contains no Commission finding of a deficiency for Con Edison or O&R, and Con Edison and O&R said they do not project the need for any new service moratoria.

Who is cut first if gas service must be curtailed?

In Winter Storm Elliott, the Commission said National Grid and Con Edison required interruptible customers to move to alternate fuels, and that curtailing firm customers would have been their final available action. The tariff sequence was not read.

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

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Notes

  1. Consolidated Edison and Orange and Rockland, Final Gas System Long-Term Plan (filed November 29, 2023), Case 23-G-0147, PDF 4 of the Appendices (Appendix B), and PDF 18, 29, 31, 51, 52 and 56 of the plan; Annual Updates (May 2025, PDF 8; May 2026, PDF 9). The plan's chart of the supply stack (Figure 28) is an image and is not used for any figure. Utility statements. [NY2-NYC-01, NY2-PN-04, NY2-NYC-12, NY2-NYC-13, NY2-NYC-14, NY2-NYC-15, NY2-NYC-16, NY2-NYC-17, NY2-NYC-18, NY2-NYC-19, NY2-NYC-20, NY2-NYC-21, NY2-NYC-22, NY2-NYC-23, NYC-07, NYC-06, NYC-08, NYC-09, NYC-10, NYC-11, NYC-12, NYC-13] ↩
  2. Territory statements: PA Consulting's final report on National Grid's plan, PDF 14 and 111, for DPS Staff; Department of Public Service, Electric and Gas Utility Service Territory by County (October 2022), parsed by code. The EIA-176 crosswalk (editions/draft/crosswalk_test_3a.csv) lists Con Edison for Kings and Richmond counties; the two documents and the crosswalk differ and the difference is recorded in the batch packet. [NY2-NYC-02, NY2-NYC-03, NY2-NYC-04, NY2-NYC-05, NY2-NYC-06, NY2-NYC-07, NY2-NYC-08, NY2-NYC-09] ↩
  3. New York Public Service Commission, Order Regarding Long-Term Natural Gas Plan and Requiring Further Actions, Case 23-G-0147 (issued September 20, 2024), PDF 8, 9 and 12; PA Consulting final report for DPS Staff, PDF 42; Central Hudson, Final Gas System Long-Term Plan (November 21, 2024), PDF 23, for the Carmel district; USGS GNIS for Carmel and Somers. The Commission's order and the PA Consulting report are Commission and Staff records. [NYC-01, NYC-02, NYC-03, NYC-04, NYC-05, NYC-14, NY2-PN-16, NY2-PN-08, NY2-NYC-11] ↩
  4. New York Public Service Commission, Order Regarding Long-Term Natural Gas Plan and Requiring Further Actions, Case 24-G-0248 (issued September 18, 2025), for Winter Storm Elliott; National Grid, Annual Gas System Long-Term Plan Update (May 15, 2026), PDF 24, for ExC and its Connecticut permit. National Grid's statements about ExC are about a project that also serves Con Edison. [NYC-38, NYC-39, NYC-37, NYC-27, NYC-28, NYC-30] ↩
  5. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet), filtered to the metro's New York counties by code, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by county phrase, both computed by code. A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [NYC-69, NYC-70, NYC-72] ↩
  6. The joint 2027 peak (1,945 MDt per day) is run by code (nyc_westchester_calculations.csv, NY2-A-C1; illustrative): 1,713 plus 232. The series labels in Appendix B are not in the text extract; the reading of the first series as the Reference Case is asked in the right-of-reply letter.
  7. Not established, and left out of the page: delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (Iroquois and Texas Eastern postings could not be read by script; next capture about March 2027); cost allocation among customer classes and the tariff interruption sequences for Con Edison and O&R; a numeric design day supply stack and reserve for Con Edison and O&R (the plan's chart is an image); O&R's separate design day figure; Con Edison's own current in-service date for Iroquois ExC; Putnam County's gas utility figures; and the gas utility for the remaining part of Queens.
  8. R3 not established beyond the searches in Note 5, and left out of the claims: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation air permit records, interconnection queue entries and FERC eLibrary certificate filings, none of which a script could save; NYISO's load projects are electric load and are not used (a data center entry there is a gas candidate only if a filing ties it to gas); news reports are leads only and are not claimed.

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25 and 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
  2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
  3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩
  4. C1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026. Link ↩
  5. C2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in New York, monthly. Link ↩
  6. C3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily, release of October 21, 2026. Link ↩
  7. C4. Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company, L.L.C., informational postings, critical notices, as posted October 26, 2026. Link ↩

Policy sources

Official sources saved and hashed on October 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes.

  1. P1. City of New York, Local Law 154 of 2021. Link
  2. P2. New York State Department of Public Service, Staff White Paper to Implement the All-Electric Buildings Act, Case 25-M-0149, February 27, 2025. Link

Sources

  1. New York Public Service Commission, Case 23-G-0147, long-term gas plans of Consolidated Edison and Orange and Rockland. Link
  2. New York Public Service Commission, Case 24-G-0248, long-term gas plans of National Grid. Link
  3. New York Public Service Commission, Case 23-G-0676, long-term gas system plan of Central Hudson Gas & Electric Corporation. Link
  4. New York State Department of Public Service, Electric and Gas Utility Service Territory by County (October 2022). Link
  5. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
  7. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link