Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island natural gas capacity: the state commission calls National Grid's downstate system fragile, and new supply is expected for November 2027

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated October 2026.

Metro used: this page covers the part of the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ metropolitan statistical area (OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, July 21, 2023) served by National Grid's downstate gas systems, whose records are the New York Public Service Commission's (the Commission's) Case 24-G-0248: The Brooklyn Union Gas Company (KEDNY), which PA Consulting says serves Staten Island, Brooklyn and parts of Queens, and KeySpan Gas East Corporation (KEDLI), which covers Nassau and Suffolk counties and the Rockaway Peninsula in Queens, both doing business as National Grid. That gives Kings, Richmond, Nassau and Suffolk counties and part of Queens County.¹ Queens County is split between Con Edison and National Grid: Con Edison says it serves portions of Queens, and PA Consulting says National Grid's KEDNY serves parts of Queens and KEDLI the Rockaway Peninsula; the Department of Public Service county table lists both Con Edison and National Grid for Queens. The record read does not split Queens by neighbourhood and this page does not assign places inside it.² The Department of Public Service county table lists Con Edison for Richmond County and the EIA-176 crosswalk used in the first New York City run lists Con Edison for Kings and Richmond, while PA Consulting says KEDNY serves them; the sources differ and the page states both without assigning beyond the consultant's description.² Con Edison's record is covered on New York City and Westchester and Northern New Jersey on Northern New Jersey. Confidence is Medium because the figures are for National Grid's downstate systems together, not split between KEDNY and KEDLI or allocated by county; they are the most local figures the record has, and each is labeled by its geography.

Key takeaways

Which parts of the record fall inside the Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island area?

The table sorts the record by place, using PA Consulting's description of each system's territory, National Grid's gate list and the county lists above. None of the filings splits its figures between KEDNY and KEDLI or allocates them to counties.¹³

National Grid downstate records by whether they fall inside this area (OMB delineation). Source: National Grid filings, the Commission and PA Consulting, in the Notes.¹

System context: upstream pipeline events and the other New York City area pages are not specific to this area.

Has Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island had gas supply problems since 2020?

The record documents events in two winters. In December 2022, during Winter Storm Elliott, the Commission said National Grid and Con Edison required interruptible customers, including power generators, to move to alternate fuels, ran LNG plants and coordinated a public appeal to reduce gas use, and that their final available action would have been to curtail firm customers; it said National Grid was less than 30 minutes from initiating curtailments to an initial group of 30,000 customers.¹ National Grid said that during the January 2026 Polar Vortex (Winter Storm Fern) LNG was called on six days from its Greenpoint and Holtsville plants, that non-firm customers were interrupted as tariffs allow, and that design day conditions did not occur in winter 2025/26.⁴

How much spare gas capacity does Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island have on the coldest day?

The Commission's order says National Grid projects downstate design day demand will rise from 2,829,000 Dt per day in winter 2023/24 to 3,551,000 Dt per day in 2049/50, and that its supplement says slower growth may delay the projected supply gap until 2041/42.¹ National Grid said, as the Commission quotes it, that there is zero allowable contingency or reserve margin, and the Commission wrote that the system as currently configured and supplied is fragile and vulnerable.¹ PA Consulting wrote that winter 2027-28 is the last season the system is viable on a design day without incremental supply from Iroquois ExC or Greenpoint vaporizers 13 and 14, that if neither is operational by 2028-29 a design day supply shortfall occurs under National Grid's Reference Case, and that its modeling assumes no disruption to upstream pipeline deliveries.³ PA also wrote that pipeline capacity limitations exist at the Narrows crossing from Staten Island into Brooklyn, that the existing 30-inch trunk line is at capacity, and that National Grid has identified vulnerabilities specifically in the Brooklyn and Queens regions.³ National Grid's May 2026 update says its downstate system is forecasted to face a supply shortfall described in its LTP Addendum, which was not read for this page.⁴ National Grid said its Greenpoint LNG facility can supply up to 291,000 Dt per day, 10.3% of the 2023/24 downstate design day by calculation from those two figures, the years differing (illustrative).¹

What is driving new natural gas demand?

National Grid projects downstate design day demand to grow, and the filings read name no new large load by customer or service date.¹ System context: a search of other official records found two planned natural gas-fired generator records in the New York counties of the whole metro, both at New York University's central plant in New York County, outside this area, and no Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pipeline notice naming any metro county with a pipeline docket number since January 1, 2025.⁵

Are upgrades arriving in time?

National Grid said in May 2026 that it expects NESE, which will deliver an additional 400,000 Dth per day into the Rockaway Lateral, and ExC, of which KEDLI holds 62,500 Dth per day, in service for November 2027; the PA Consulting report places the first design day supply shortfall under the Reference Case in 2028-29 if neither ExC nor Greenpoint 13 and 14 is operational.⁴³ Iroquois had the necessary FERC and New York State authorization and was awaiting a Connecticut permit before starting construction, and Transco had commenced construction of certain NESE facilities; the record read does not state that Transco holds every approval for NESE; National Grid said the Greenpoint project to raise vaporization to 350,000 Dth per day is not being pursued.⁴ National Grid said it plans to supply its five Long Island CNG sites, which can provide up to 88,000 Dth per day, as contingency for possible delays to NESE and ExC.⁴ It also said it is allowing a KEDNY contract of 25,253 Dth per day at Iroquois South Commack to expire on September 30, 2026 and secured alternative short-term supply, which is 0.9% of the 2023/24 downstate design day, calculated from those two figures.⁴

What does this mean for business gas costs?

National Grid's May 2026 update compares the cost of its peaking resources, in a table whose columns are CNG, city gate peaking and LNG: annual demand costs of $49,396,874, $13,931,095 and $28,014,123, based on winter 2027/28 projections for CNG and city gate and fiscal 2025 revenue requirements for LNG fixed costs; the update does not state how these costs are allocated among customer classes.⁴

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

The record shows interruptible service ending first in practice. In Winter Storm Elliott National Grid and Con Edison required interruptible customers to move to alternate fuels before the last step of curtailing firm customers.¹ National Grid said non-firm customers were interrupted as tariffs allow in January 2026.⁴ The tariff that sets the order of interruption was not read for this page.

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

National layer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for, among other areas, the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions, a discussion that names regions and not counties, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%.^B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.^A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.^A1

Regional layer. This area lies in EIA's East storage region, whose working gas EIA's weekly storage table, released October 22, 2026, lists at 900 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 16, 2026; EIA's weekly report, which carries the five-year-average comparison, could not be read by script.^C1 The nearest regional price EIA publishes is its New York state citygate series, 8.07 dollars per thousand cubic feet for July 2026, the latest month in the series, while its Henry Hub spot price for the week ending October 23, 2026 was 3.28 dollars per million Btu on the first day reported.^C2C3 The pipelines that feed National Grid's downstate gates, Transco and Iroquois, post their notices where a script could not read them, so recent winter or critical notices for them are not established here. These are national and regional facts, not statements about National Grid's systems, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

Policy context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level, a factor or a trigger. Sources are listed separately under Policy sources.

New York City's Local Law 154 of 2021 adds a section to Title 24 of the Administrative Code, under which no person shall permit the combustion of any substance that emits 25 kilograms or more of carbon dioxide per million British thermal units within a building subject to it, with exceptions that include a building of fewer than seven stories whose construction documents application was submitted on or before December 31, 2023, and a building of seven stories or more with an application on or before July 1, 2027.[P1] A New York State Department of Public Service Staff white paper dated February 27, 2025 on the All-Electric Buildings Act (Part RR of Chapter 56 of the Laws of 2023) says the Act's provisions apply to new buildings seven stories or less, with exceptions, effective December 31, 2025 and will apply to all new buildings effective December 31, 2028, and, as applied by the Code Council, to building permit applications substantially complete as of December 31, 2025; the paper's date is February 2025, and the Act's current status was not confirmed from an official source for this page.[P2]

What is the outlook for Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): the Commission calls National Grid's downstate system fragile, National Grid forecasts a supply shortfall and PA Consulting places it in 2028-29 without new supply, and no fix is fully approved in the record read, with ExC awaiting a Connecticut permit, though the figures are for the two systems together. Documented risk factors: recent supply events (Winter Storm Elliott, December 2022, and LNG dispatch in January 2026), which together count as one factor and do not raise the level. Three developments would change the assessment: the Connecticut permit, construction and in-service dates for Iroquois ExC and Transco NESE against November 2027, and National Grid's May 2027 annual update; any Commission action on a moratorium or reserve margin for the downstate systems; or a repeat of the supply cuts of Winter Storm Elliott.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What should Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island facilities check now?

• Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
• Which service. Confirm whether each site takes firm or interruptible service; the record shows interruptible customers moved to alternate fuels in Winter Storm Elliott.
• Which utility. Confirm whether the site is served by National Grid (KEDNY or KEDLI), Con Edison or another utility, because the records differ by utility and Queens is served by more than one.
• Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
• Upcoming proceedings. Track the in-service dates of NESE and ExC and the annual updates in the Commission's long-term plan case for National Grid.

Frequently asked questions

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

• Albany natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• New York City and Westchester natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Northern New Jersey natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Pennsylvania UGI Gas territory natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Philadelphia area natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Notes

1. New York Public Service Commission, Order Regarding Long-Term Natural Gas Plan and Requiring Further Actions, Case 24-G-0248 (issued September 18, 2025), PDF 21 and PDF 64 to 66, PDF 104 and 105. National Grid's KEDNY and KEDLI figures are given for its downstate systems together and are not split. The percentages are run by code (nyc_brooklyn_li_calculations.csv, NYC-C11 to NYC-C13; illustrative): Greenpoint 291,000 and the Iroquois contract 25,253, each divided by 2,829,000. [NYC-15, NYC-16, NYC-17, NYC-18, NYC-19, NYC-35, NYC-36, NYC-38, NYC-39, NYC-37] ↩
2. Con Edison, Final Gas System Long-Term Plan (November 29, 2023), PDF 18; Department of Public Service, Electric and Gas Utility Service Territory by County (October 2022), parsed by code. The EIA-176 crosswalk (editions/draft/crosswalk_test_3a.csv) lists Con Edison for Kings and Richmond counties; the difference from PA Consulting's description is recorded in the batch packet. [NY2-NYC-01, NY2-NYC-05, NY2-NYC-06, NY2-NYC-07]
3. PA Consulting, Final Report on National Grid's Long-Term Gas Plan, for DPS Staff, PDF 14, 70, 71 and 111; Staff analysis. National Grid's gate list: May 2026 update, PDF 12. [NY2-NYC-02, NY2-NYC-03, NY2-NYC-04, NYC-20, NYC-21, NYC-22, NY2-NYC-24, NY2-NYC-25, NY2-NYC-26, NY2-NYC-27] ↩
4. National Grid, Annual Gas System Long-Term Plan Update (May 15, 2026), PDF 21 to 24 and PDF 52. Utility statements. [NYC-23, NYC-24, NYC-25, NYC-26, NYC-27, NYC-28, NYC-29, NYC-30, NYC-31, NYC-32, NYC-33, NYC-34, NYC-40, NYC-41, NYC-42, NYC-43] ↩
5. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet), filtered to the metro's New York counties by code, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by county phrase, both computed by code. A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [NYC-69, NYC-70, NYC-72] ↩
6. Not established, and left out of the page: delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (Transco and Iroquois postings could not be read by script; next capture about March 2027); cost allocation among customer classes and the tariff interruption sequence; National Grid's LTP Addendum on NESE; whether Transco holds every approval for NESE (National Grid states only that construction of certain facilities has commenced); the split of the downstate figures between KEDNY and KEDLI; and which utility serves Richmond and Kings counties where the sources differ.
7. R3 not established beyond the searches in Note 5, and left out of the claims: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation air permit records, interconnection queue entries and FERC eLibrary certificate filings, none of which a script could save; NYISO's load projects are electric load and are not used; news reports are leads only and are not claimed.

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25 and 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩
4. C1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026. Link ↩
5. C2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in New York, monthly. Link ↩
6. C3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily, release of October 21, 2026. Link ↩

Policy sources

Official sources saved and hashed on October 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes.

1. P1. City of New York, Local Law 154 of 2021. Link
2. P2. New York State Department of Public Service, Staff White Paper to Implement the All-Electric Buildings Act, Case 25-M-0149, February 27, 2025. Link

Sources

1. New York Public Service Commission, Case 24-G-0248, long-term gas plans of National Grid. Link
2. New York Public Service Commission, Case 23-G-0147, long-term gas plans of Consolidated Edison and Orange and Rockland. Link
3. New York State Department of Public Service, Electric and Gas Utility Service Territory by County (October 2022). Link
4. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
5. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
6. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link