New Jersey natural gas case study, Northern New Jersey. October 2026

Northern New Jersey natural gas capacity: two utilities' 2026 filings show design-day supply only a few percent above requirements

PSE&G's 2026 Schedule F shows peak day supply 4.7% above requirements for 2026-2027 and Elizabethtown Gas's Schedule LJW-16 shows design peak day supply 4.0% above throughput, both calculated from their figures, with no new capacity project in the filings read; NJNG's design day forecast was not read.

4.7%PSE&G peak day supply above requirement, 2026-2027, whole PSE&G system, calculated from PSE&G figures
4.0%Elizabethtown Gas design peak day supply above throughput, 2026-2027, whole system, calculated from Elizabethtown figures
12 daysForce majeure at Transco's Station 517 from December 13, 2025, per NJ Natural Gas, whole system
16 periodsDaily-balancing periods for NJ Natural Gas interruptible customers, December 2025 to March 2026, whole system

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated .

Metro used: this page covers the New Jersey part of the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ metropolitan statistical area (OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, July 21, 2023): Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex and Union counties. Serving utilities are taken from the Discovery Energy crosswalk built from EIA-176 county lists: Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G) for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Somerset and Union counties; New Jersey Natural Gas Company (NJNG) for Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean; and Elizabethtown Gas for Hunterdon, Middlesex, Morris, Sussex and Union. No gas utility is assigned to Passaic County by the crosswalk, 2.6% of the metro population; PSE&G's own Gas Delivery Districts map of 2007, an image read by eye and not code-verified, shows most of Passaic County in its Northern Division, so Passaic County is treated here as a gap that the PSE&G whole-system table may cover, and confidence is Medium. Where two utilities list the same county, the page does not assign places between them. The New York parts of the metro are covered on New York City and Westchester and Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island pages. The figures below are whole-system tables and statewide findings that the utilities and the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (the BPU) do not allocate by county; they are the most local figures the record has, and each is labeled by its geography.1

Key takeaways

  • PSE&G's Schedule F lists peak day gas supply of 3,245.6 MDth against requirements of 3,100.5 MDth for 2026-2027, a surplus of 4.7% of the requirement as calculated from those two figures, and the calculation is below 5% in 3 of the five winters in the schedule; the table is for PSE&G's whole system.2
  • Elizabethtown Gas's Schedule LJW-16 lists design peak day supply of 680,428 Dth per day against throughput of 654,174 Dth per day for 2026-2027, 4.0% above throughput as calculated from those figures, and the company said it has sufficient firm pipeline capacity, storage deliverability and peaking supply for its design peak day requirements.3
  • NJNG said in June 2026 that several pipeline events in recent years have led to the restriction of firm capacity, and listed a force majeure at Transco's Station 517 in Columbia County, Pennsylvania, starting December 13, 2025 and lasting 12 days, and one at Columbia's Milford Compressor in Pike County, Pennsylvania, lasting 7 days.1
  • NJNG said it plans with ten-year design day projections of firm load; its design day forecast through January 2036 is in a workpaper to be filed separately, which was not read, so NJNG's margin is not established.1
  • In the filings read, Elizabethtown Gas said it has made no new precedent agreements for incremental city-gate transportation, and NJNG's contract changes are extensions, the largest a Texas Eastern contract of 100,000 Dth per day extended from November 2026 to October 2027.13
  • The BPU's June 2022 order, summarizing a consultant's report, said there would be a statewide surplus of 274 MDth per day under the winter design day and a shortfall of 153 MDth per day on a 1-in-90 design day; these are statewide findings from 2022.4

Which parts of the record fall inside Northern New Jersey?

The table sorts the record by utility, using the Discovery Energy crosswalk of utilities to metro counties and the OMB county list. None of the utility filings allocates its figures to the metro's counties.1

Where Utility and what was read
Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Somerset and Union counties PSE&G: Schedule F, whole PSE&G system
Passaic County No gas utility assigned by the crosswalk; PSE&G's 2007 district map, read by eye, shows its Northern Division there (not code-verified)
Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean counties NJNG: June 2026 filing; its design day forecast is in a workpaper not read
Hunterdon, Middlesex, Morris, Sussex and Union counties Elizabethtown Gas: Schedule LJW-16, whole system

Utility records by whether they fall inside Northern New Jersey (OMB delineation). Where more than one utility lists a county (for example Hunterdon, Middlesex and Union), places are not assigned between them. Source: utility filings in the Notes; county crosswalk from EIA-176.1

System context: upstream pipeline events and the BPU statewide findings below are not specific to the metro.

Has Northern New Jersey had gas supply problems since 2020?

System context: NJNG said in June 2026 that several pipeline events in recent years have led to the restriction of firm capacity, and listed a force majeure at Transco's Station 517 in Columbia County, Pennsylvania, starting December 13, 2025 and lasting 12 days, and a force majeure at Columbia's Milford Compressor in Pike County, Pennsylvania, lasting 7 days, with a start date printed as December 30, 2026 in the filing.1 NJNG said the interstate pipelines have increased the frequency and duration of Operational Flow Orders.1 Elizabethtown Gas's Schedule CLC-8 lists curtailment of one transportation customer on dates in January and February 2026, reason operational.3

How much spare gas capacity does Northern New Jersey have on the coldest day?

Major natural gas pipelines serving Northern New Jersey N Transco Transco Texas Eastern Texas Eastern Other transmission pipelines in the EIA layer (interstate and intrastate; unlabeled) Pipeline named in a verified claim on this page (labeled, one color each) Metro counties (boundary used on this page) Major highways (for orientation)
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving New York-Newark-Jersey City. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

PSE&G. PSE&G's Schedule F gives peak day supply, requirements and surplus for its whole system, with requirements tied to a 3% Loss of Load Probability.2

Winter Peak day supply (MDth) Peak day requirements (MDth) Surplus as % of requirements (calculated)
2026-2027 3,245.6 3,100.5 4.7%
2027-2028 3,243.9 3,088.9 5.0%
2028-2029 3,236.5 3,080.0 5.1%
2029-2030 3,225.7 3,080.6 4.7%
2030-2031 3,208.9 3,078.6 4.2%

PSE&G Schedule F, whole PSE&G system, MDth; the last column is calculated by code as supply less requirements, divided by requirements (illustrative).2

Elizabethtown Gas. Elizabethtown Gas said it has sufficient firm pipeline capacity, storage deliverability and peaking supply under contract to meet its firm winter design peak day demand requirements for 2026/2027 and has made no new precedent agreements for incremental city-gate transportation.3

Winter Total throughput (Dth per day) Total supply (Dth per day) Supply above throughput (calculated)
2026-2027 654,174 680,428 4.0%
2027-2028 656,541 680,508 3.7%
2028-2029 660,246 684,619 3.7%
2029-2030 666,272 690,709 3.7%
2030-2031 676,230 701,750 3.8%

Elizabethtown Gas Schedule LJW-16, design peak day, whole system, Dth per day, as filed; the supply rows include storage and seasonal, pipeline transport, peaking, mechanical, third party, take-back and TPS deliveries. The last column is calculated by code as total supply less total throughput, divided by total throughput (illustrative).3

NJNG. NJNG said it plans with ten-year design day projections of firm load; its design day forecast and associated supplies through January 2036 are in a workpaper to be filed separately, which was not read, so NJNG's margin is not established on this page.1 Its Exhibit JSS-3 lists a February 7, 2026 row ending 786,028, which is the firm sendout column in the extract, in Dth, on a day with 54 degree days; the exhibit states no design day for comparison.1

System context: the BPU's June 2022 order, summarizing a consultant's report for New Jersey firm customers, said there would be a statewide surplus of 274 MDth per day under the winter design day and a shortfall of 153 MDth per day on a 1-in-90 design day. These are statewide findings, from 2022.4

What is driving new natural gas demand?

The filings read name no new large load by customer or service date. A search of other official records found no planned natural gas-fired generator in the twelve New Jersey counties in EIA's September 2026 generator inventory and no Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pipeline notice naming any metro county with a pipeline docket number since January 1, 2025.5

Are upgrades arriving in time?

In New Jersey, the filings read show no new capacity project: Elizabethtown Gas said it has no new precedent agreements for incremental city-gate transportation, and NJNG's contract changes are extensions, the largest a Texas Eastern contract of 100,000 Dth per day extended from November 2026 to October 2027.31 With surplus percentages at or near 5% or below and no project in the record, the page shows no approved or scheduled fix for the margins in the tables above.

What does this mean for business gas costs?

Cost allocation among classes was not read for PSE&G, NJNG or Elizabethtown Gas for this page, and the filings read state no dollar figure for supply margins.

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

The record shows interruptible service ending first in practice. NJNG's Exhibit JSS-2 lists 16 daily-balancing periods between December 4, 2025 and March 2, 2026 for its interruptible transportation and sales customers, 25 customers, reason operational, and defines daily balancing as allowing interruptible transportation customers to keep using gas if their third party supplier delivers what they burn, with usage beyond that billed at penalty rates.1 Elizabethtown Gas's Schedule CLC-8 lists curtailment of one transportation customer on dates in January and February 2026, reason operational.3 The tariffs that set the order of interruption for each utility were not read for this page.

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

National layer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for, among other areas, the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions, a discussion that names regions and not counties, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%.B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.A1

Regional layer. Northern New Jersey lies in EIA's East storage region, whose working gas EIA's weekly storage table, released October 22, 2026, lists at 900 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 16, 2026; EIA's weekly report, which carries the five-year-average comparison, could not be read by script.C1 The nearest regional price EIA publishes is its New Jersey state citygate series, 4.06 dollars per thousand cubic feet for July 2026, the latest month in the series, while its Henry Hub spot price for the week ending October 23, 2026 was 3.28 dollars per million Btu on the first day reported.C2C3 The pipelines named on the map are Transco and Texas Eastern; their posted notices, and Columbia's, could not be read by script, so recent winter or critical notices are not established here, although NJNG itself reported the winter 2025-26 force majeure events at Transco's Station 517 and Columbia's Milford Compressor above. These are national and regional facts, not statements about the utilities' systems, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

Policy context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level, a factor or a trigger. Sources are listed separately under Policy sources.

The BPU said in its July 15, 2026 order on Program Year 7 energy efficiency that the Clean Energy Act mandates savings targets of at least 2% and 0.75% in annual energy usage reductions by customers of electric and natural gas public utilities, respectively.[P3]

What is the outlook for Northern New Jersey gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Northern New Jersey natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): PSE&G's and Elizabethtown Gas's 2026 filings show design day supply only a few percent above requirements, below 5% in most winters, with no fix scheduled in the records read, though the figures are whole-system and NJNG's design day forecast and Passaic County were not reached. Documented risk factors: recent pipeline events (the Transco and Columbia force majeure events of winter 2025-26), which count as a single factor and do not raise the level. Three developments would change the assessment: PSE&G's next Schedule F and Elizabethtown Gas's next Schedule LJW-16, which show how far supply sits above the design day; NJNG's design day forecast in its Workpaper 7; and any new capacity agreement or BPU action on gas capacity.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What should Northern New Jersey facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Which service. Confirm whether each site takes firm or interruptible service; the record shows interruptible customers on daily balancing at NJNG in winter 2025-26.
  • Which utility. Confirm whether the site is served by PSE&G, NJNG, Elizabethtown Gas or another utility, because the records differ by utility and several counties are listed for more than one.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Upcoming proceedings. Track the next BGSS filings of PSE&G, NJNG and Elizabethtown Gas.

Frequently asked questions

Will Northern New Jersey businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The record does not show a shortage. PSE&G's and Elizabethtown Gas's filings show supply above design day requirements, by 4.7% and 4.0% for 2026-2027 as calculated from their figures. This page makes no prediction about outages.

Is there spare gas capacity in Northern New Jersey on the coldest day?

It depends on the utility and the record is whole-system. PSE&G's Schedule F shows peak day supply 4.7% above requirements for 2026-2027, Elizabethtown Gas's Schedule LJW-16 shows 4.0%, and NJNG's margin is not established.

What pipeline events affected New Jersey utilities last winter?

NJNG said a force majeure at Transco's Station 517 started December 13, 2025 and lasted 12 days, and one at Columbia's Milford Compressor lasted 7 days.

Did the BPU find a gas supply deficiency in New Jersey?

The BPU's June 2022 order, summarizing a consultant's report, said there would be a statewide surplus under the winter design day and a shortfall on a 1-in-90 design day; these are statewide findings from 2022.

Who is cut first if gas service must be curtailed?

NJNG's interruptible customers were placed on daily balancing 16 times in winter 2025-26, and Elizabethtown Gas curtailed one transportation customer in January and February 2026; the tariff sequences were not read.

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Understand your capacity exposure

Discovery Energy reviews service elections, interruption terms and regulatory proceedings for organizations across the U.S. and Canada, so capacity changes are understood before they reach the bill.

Schedule a review

Notes

  1. New Jersey Natural Gas Company, 2027 BGSS and CIP filing, BPU Docket GR26060281 (June 1, 2026), testimony of Jayana S. Shah, PDF 92 and 93, and Exhibits JSS-2 (PDF 102), JSS-3 (PDF 103) and JSS-5 (PDF 106); saved by Sam Strong as a manual browser download. The filing's service list carries a South Jersey Gas caption with the same docket number, which this page does not rely on; the Milford Compressor start date is printed as December 30, 2026 and is asked in the right-of-reply letter; the column assignment in Exhibit JSS-3 is taken from the text extract. Utility statements. [NYC-44, NYC-45, NYC-46, NYC-47, NYC-48, NYC-49, NYC-50, NYC-51, NYC-53, NYC-55] ↩
  2. Public Service Electric and Gas Company, 2026 BGSS-RSG filing (May 29, 2026), Item 16 Schedule F Peak Day Gas Requirements and Supply, PDF 94. Utility statements. The surplus percentages are run by code (nyc_northern_nj_calculations.csv, NYC-C1 to NYC-C5; illustrative): supply less requirements, divided by requirements. The PSE&G Gas Delivery Districts map (2007) is an image in the PDF saved by script (NY2-NJ-01); the reading that Passaic County is in the Northern Division was made by eye and is not code-verified. [NYC-56, NYC-57, NYC-58, NYC-59] ↩
  3. Elizabethtown Gas, 2026 BGSS and CIP filing, Exhibit P-2 (PDF 92), Schedule CLC-8 (PDF 57) and Schedule LJW-16 (PDF 136 and 137). Utility statements; Schedules LJW-19 and LJW-20 are confidential and not read. The percentages are run by code (nyc_northern_nj_calculations.csv, NYC-C6 to NYC-C10; illustrative): total supply less total throughput, divided by total throughput. [NYC-60, NYC-62, NYC-63, NYC-64, NYC-65, NYC-66, NYC-61] ↩
  4. BPU, Order, Gas Capacity (June 29, 2022), summarizing the report of London Economics International (public, redacted copy saved). Commission order; statewide. [NYC-67, NYC-68] ↩
  5. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet), filtered to the twelve New Jersey metro counties by code, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by county phrase, both computed by code. A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [NYC-71, NYC-72] ↩
  6. Not established, and left out of the page: delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (Transco, Columbia and Texas Eastern postings could not be read by script; next capture about March 2027); cost allocation among customer classes and the tariff interruption sequences for PSE&G, NJNG and Elizabethtown Gas; NJNG's Workpaper 7 design day forecast; the counties NJNG and Elizabethtown Gas serve beyond the crosswalk; and a code-verified source for the gas utility in Passaic County.
  7. R3 not established beyond the searches in Note 5, and left out of the claims: New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection air permit records, interconnection queue entries and FERC eLibrary certificate filings, none of which a script could save; news reports are leads only and are not claimed.

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25 and 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
  2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
  3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩
  4. C1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026. Link ↩
  5. C2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in New Jersey, monthly. Link ↩
  6. C3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily, release of October 21, 2026. Link ↩

Policy sources

Official sources saved and hashed on October 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes.

  1. P3. New Jersey BPU, Order on Program Year 7 energy efficiency programs, Docket QO26070382, July 15, 2026. Link

Sources

  1. New Jersey Natural Gas Company, regulatory filings, BPU Dockets GR26060281 and GR26060278. Link
  2. Public Service Electric and Gas Company, 2026 BGSS-RSG filing. Link
  3. Elizabethtown Gas, 2026 BGSS and CIP filing. Link
  4. New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, Order, Gas Capacity, June 29, 2022. Link
  5. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
  7. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link