Pennsylvania natural gas capacity: Harrisburg, Lancaster, Reading, Allentown and Scranton, one thin peak-day margin and one unfilled supply line

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated October 2026.

Key takeaways

Which parts of the record fall inside the five metros?

UGI Gas's tariff lists 46 counties. Ten of the twelve counties in the five metros are among them: Cumberland and Dauphin (Harrisburg-Carlisle), Lancaster (Lancaster), Berks (Reading), Carbon, Lehigh and Northampton (Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton), and Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming (Scranton--Wilkes-Barre). Two are not: Perry County, Pennsylvania, the third county of the Harrisburg-Carlisle metro, and Warren County, New Jersey, the fourth county of the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton metro, so the record does not identify the serving utility for either.⁵

UGI Gas's tariff territory, by whether each county is in one of the five metros (OMB delineation). Source: UGI Gas tariff, Pa. P.U.C. No. 7, Description of Territory.⁵

System context: every capacity figure on this page is UGI Gas-wide. The record does not allocate any of it to a county or a metro, so the same figures apply to all five metros and no metro has a figure of its own.

System context: UGI Gas said in its January 2026 filing that UGI Central Penn Gas, Inc. and UGI Penn Natural Gas, Inc. merged into UGI Gas on October 1, 2020, and its depreciation study calls the consolidated company's former parts UGI North (the former Penn Natural Gas), UGI Central and UGI South (UGI Gas).¹⁴ The tariff read, Pa. P.U.C. No. 7, lists the counties of all five metros in one Description of Territory, and the whole-system peak-day schedule above carries supply lines with contract numbers beginning PNG-P and CPG-P; the filings do not say which lines serve which area or how the 2026-27 schedule divides among them.¹⁴

Harrisburg-Carlisle

Cumberland, Dauphin and Perry counties; population 617,427 in 2025⁶. UGI Gas's tariff lists the City of Harrisburg and many Dauphin County boroughs and townships, and Camp Hill, Carlisle, Lemoyne, Mechanicsburg and other Cumberland County boroughs and townships. Perry County is not listed.⁵

Lancaster

Lancaster County; population 563,159 in 2025⁶. UGI Gas's tariff lists Lancaster County, including the City of Lancaster and boroughs such as Columbia, Elizabethtown, Ephrata, Lititz, Manheim and Mount Joy, and many townships. The filings reviewed do not say whether another gas utility serves part of the county.⁵

Reading

Berks County; population 440,072 in 2025⁶. UGI Gas's tariff lists Berks County, including the City of Reading and boroughs such as Birdsboro, Boyertown, Hamburg, Kutztown, Shillington and Wyomissing, and many townships. The filings reviewed do not say whether another gas utility serves part of the county.⁵

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton

Carbon, Lehigh and Northampton counties in Pennsylvania and Warren County in New Jersey; population 887,615 in 2025⁶. UGI Gas's tariff lists Lehigh County, including the City of Allentown, part of the City of Bethlehem and boroughs such as Catasauqua, Emmaus and Macungie; Northampton County, including the City of Easton, part of Bethlehem and boroughs such as Bangor, Hellertown and Nazareth; and six Carbon County boroughs, including Jim Thorpe, Lehighton and Palmerton.⁵ The tariff names municipalities and marks some "(part)", so it does not show that UGI Gas serves every address in a county. Warren County, New Jersey, has no heading in the Pennsylvania tariff, so the record does not identify its serving utility. The record gives no UGI Gas customer count or load for the metro or any of its counties, so the system-wide figures apply. UGI Gas's peak-day data for February 18, 2025 list a daily average temperature of 20 degrees F for the weather area it labels Reading/Harrisburg/Lehigh/Lancaster/Altoona, which is wider than the metro.⁴ The filings reviewed do not say whether another gas utility serves part of these counties.

EIA's September 2026 inventory lists generator records that list natural gas (existing generation, not new load) in Northampton County, 15 records with 3,439.1 MW of total net summer capacity, and none in Carbon or Lehigh County.¹⁵ EIA lists no planned gas-fired generator in the three Pennsylvania counties, no Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pipeline notice since January 1, 2025 names them, and PJM's Transition Cycle 1 Phase III list shows no natural gas project in Pennsylvania.¹⁵ Warren County, New Jersey, was not searched.

Scranton--Wilkes-Barre

Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming counties; population 574,418 in 2025⁶. UGI Gas's tariff lists Lackawanna County, including the Cities of Carbondale and Scranton and boroughs such as Dunmore and Dickson City; Luzerne County, including the Cities of Hazleton, Nanticoke, Pittston and Wilkes-Barre; and five Wyoming County boroughs, Factoryville, Laceyville, Meshoppen, Nicholson and Tunkhannock, and townships in each county.⁵ The record gives no UGI Gas customer count or load for the metro or any of its counties, so the system-wide figures apply. UGI Gas's peak-day data for February 18, 2025 list a daily average temperature of 15 degrees F for the weather area it labels Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.⁴ The filings reviewed do not say whether another gas utility serves part of these counties.

EIA's September 2026 inventory lists generator records that list natural gas (existing generation, not new load): Lackawanna County 5 records with 1,425.7 MW of total net summer capacity; Luzerne County 9 records with 1,315.8 MW; and Wyoming County 8 records with 125.9 MW.¹⁵ EIA lists no planned gas-fired generator in the three counties, and no Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pipeline notice since January 1, 2025 names them.¹⁵

The five metros together have a population of 3,082,691⁶; the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton figure includes Warren County, New Jersey. No large load, data center, local station or local capacity project in any of the five metros is documented in the UGI Gas books reviewed, so none is claimed for any metro here.

How much spare gas capacity does UGI Gas's Pennsylvania territory have on the coldest day?

UGI Gas said its distribution systems are fed directly by nine interstate pipelines, including Tennessee Gas Pipeline, Columbia Gas Transmission, Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company (Transco), Texas Eastern and Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage; some systems are fed by several pipelines and others are isolated feeds, and the filing does not say which pipeline serves which county.¹³

UGI Gas's schedule, headed "Peak Day Capacity Requirements and Supply Options" for the year ending September 30, 2027, is in dekatherms (Dth).¹

UGI Gas's peak-day capacity and requirements for the year ending September 2027, system-wide, from its January 2026 data request response. The last two rows are our subtraction.¹²

The Outlook Scale treats a projected reserve below 5% of design day as a thin margin; both figures above are below it. The schedule shows no negative balance, no need date and no project. Peaking services from UGI Energy Services, 479,187 Dth, are the largest single line.³

UGI Gas's annual peak-day sendout, interruptible service included, was 1,648.9 MDth in February 2023, 1,705.6 MDth in January 2024 and 1,694.6 MDth in February 2025. The Reading, Harrisburg, Lehigh, Lancaster and Altoona area temperature on those days was 16, 18 and 20 degrees Fahrenheit. These are actual sendout days, a different measure from the 2026-27 requirements schedule, and the record does not compare them.⁴

What is driving new natural gas demand?

The UGI Gas books reviewed document no data center, gas-fired generator or other new large load in the five metros. A search of other official records found none either: EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists no planned natural gas-fired generator in Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry, Lancaster or Berks county, and PJM's Transition Cycle 1 Phase III list shows eight Pennsylvania projects, all solar or solar with storage.¹¹ The search did not find a FERC pipeline filing for a new delivery point or lateral in these counties; its limits are in Note 12. For the added metros, EIA's inventory lists no planned natural gas-fired generator in Carbon, Lehigh, Northampton, Lackawanna, Luzerne or Wyoming county either, and no pipeline notice since January 1, 2025 names them.¹⁵

What does this mean for business gas costs?

On October 1, 2026 the Commission adopted, without modification, the settlement of UGI Gas's base rate case, which allows $65 million in base rate increases in two steps: $40 million from October 1, 2026 and $25 million from October 1, 2027. The settlement bars UGI Gas from filing a general rate increase on or before January 15, 2029.⁹

Whole system, step one only: step-one revenue change by rate class as settled, UGI Gas-wide (Settlement Appendix B, proof of revenue). The second step's class split is not summarized here.⁸

This is the whole-system class allocation of a revenue increase. The record does not show how the capacity items above are costed by class, or any dollar effect on a customer in the five metros.⁸

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

UGI Gas's tariff Rule 21 says that, if time permits, before curtailing customers the company will use reasonable efforts to interrupt all interruptible services, issue operational flow orders or daily flow directives, and call for voluntary usage reductions. If it then mandates reductions on commercial and industrial customers that are not Priority 1, the reduction is "determined by the Company without regard to priorities of use", lasts at most five consecutive business days unless the Commission extends it, and may not go below the minimum usage for plant protection except when Priority 1 service itself cannot be met.¹⁰

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for regions it calls the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, and that the probability of at least a strong El Niño continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%; its discussion names regions, not Pennsylvania counties.^B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.^A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.^A1 These are national and regional facts, not statements about the utility's system, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

What is the outlook for gas capacity in UGI Gas's Pennsylvania territory through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for natural gas capacity in UGI Gas's Pennsylvania territory (the Harrisburg-Carlisle, Lancaster, Reading, Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton and Scranton--Wilkes-Barre metros) through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): UGI Gas's own 2026-27 peak-day schedule shows a margin of about 2.6%, or about 1.3% without a supply line labeled "Supply TBD" that the record does not show as contracted, and the record shows no approved or scheduled fix; it also shows no negative balance or need date, and every figure is system-wide. Documented risk factors: concentration (F1), since UGI Energy Services peaking services are 21.0% of 2026-27 peak-day requirements, a Discovery Energy calculation from UGI Gas's figures (479,187 ÷ 2,280,283); one factor does not raise the level. Three developments would change the assessment: UGI Gas's next peak-day schedule, including whether the 30,436 Dth "Supply TBD" line is contracted or identified and what the margin is, or any approved or scheduled capacity addition; any change in UGI Gas's reliance on peaking services from UGI Energy Services; a capacity filing, or a rate case after the January 15, 2029 stay-out date, that shows a negative balance.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What should Pennsylvania facilities in UGI Gas's territory check now?

• Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
• Rate class and utility. Confirm each site's UGI Gas rate class (for example N/NT, DS, LFD, XD or interruptible) and, for sites in Perry County, Pennsylvania, and Warren County, New Jersey, the serving utility.
• Firm or interruptible, and the terms. Know whether each account is firm or interruptible and the flow-order, reduction and plant-protection terms in Rule 21 before the first cold snap.
• Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
• Settlement step two. The second step of the base rate increase takes effect on October 1, 2027.

Frequently asked questions

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

• Philadelphia area natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• York natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Northern New Jersey natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Albany natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• New York City and Westchester natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Notes

1. UGI Utilities, Inc. - Gas Division, Docket R-2025-3059523, Book II, response to SDR-COS-10, Attachment SDR-COS-10 page 5 of 5 (PDF 22), delivered January 28, 2026; utility filing, system-wide, quantities in Dth. [SCP-01 to SCP-07] ↩
2. Same attachment. 2,340,671 minus 2,280,283 is 60,388 Dth, or 2.65% of requirements; excluding the 30,436 Dth "Supply TBD" line, 29,952 Dth, or 1.31%. Illustrative, run by code (harrisburg_calculations.csv). The record does not say whether the "Supply TBD" line is contracted. [SCP-03] ↩
3. Same attachment: UGI Energy Services Peaking Services 479,187 Dth, 21.0% of 2,280,283; third-party capacity for large customers 848,207 Dth, 37.2%; illustrative. The share is a Discovery Energy calculation from UGI Gas's figures: 479,187 ÷ 2,280,283 = 21.0%. [SCP-04, SCP-05] ↩
4. Attachment SDR-COS-10 page 1 of 5 (PDF 18): peak-day sendout by rate class and temperature by area. [SCP-08, SCP-09] ↩
5. UGI Gas tariff, Pa. P.U.C. No. 7, Supplement No. 59 (Book X), Description of Territory (PDF 9 to 24): 46 county headings counted by code, 10 in the five metros, 36 outside; Perry County and Warren County, New Jersey, have no heading (south_central_pa_metro_classification.csv). County boundaries from OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (delineation file list1_2023.xlsx). [SCP-13, SCP-14, SCP-23, SCP-24] ↩
6. U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Resident Population Estimates for Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Vintage 2025 (July 1, 2025): Harrisburg-Carlisle 617,427; Lancaster 563,159; Reading 440,072; total 1,620,658 by code; with Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton 887,615 and Scranton--Wilkes-Barre 574,418, the five metros total 3,082,691 by code. ↩
7. Not established, and left out of the page: whether another gas utility serves part of Lancaster, Berks, Carbon, Lehigh, Northampton, Lackawanna, Luzerne or Wyoming County (only UGI Gas's filings were reviewed); local stations, local capacity and local large loads in the five metros; supply events since 2020 affecting UGI Gas (the filings give annual peak days only); new large loads or data centers (none found in the UGI books reviewed, which were Books I, II, III, V, VI, IX and X); capacity remedies and projects (none found); contract end dates (attachment SDR-COS-14 not read); delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (the pipelines' posting sites could not be read by script); the previous design-day standard.
8. Joint Petition for Approval of Settlement of All Issues, filed July 6, 2026, paragraph 35 (PDF 14) and Appendix B, Proof of Revenue Summary, page 1 of 7 (PDF 123). Settlement among UGI Gas, the Office of Consumer Advocate, the Office of Small Business Advocate, the Bureau of Investigation and Enforcement and the Retail Energy Supply Association. [SCP-15 to SCP-19, SCP-21, SCP-22] ↩
9. Commission Opinion and Order, adopted and entered October 1, 2026, ordering paragraph 1 (the Commission adopted the Initial Decision of the administrative law judges dated July 31, 2026). [SCP-20] ↩
10. UGI Gas tariff, Pa. P.U.C. No. 7, Rule 21, Gas Emergency Planning, Supplement No. 59 as filed (Book X PDF 77 to 78). [SCP-10 to SCP-12] ↩
11. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet, operator-reported planned dates), filtered to Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry, Lancaster and Berks counties by code, and the PJM Transition Cycle 1 Phase III project list (Pennsylvania rows; the list has no county column), both computed by code (south_central_pa_calculations.csv). [SCP-25, SCP-26] ↩
12. R3 not established (searches run: EIA-860M, PJM Transition Cycle 1, Federal Register FERC notices, DEP and Pennsylvania Bulletin web searches): any state air plan approval, PJM Cycle 1 (2026) queue entry or FERC filing for a gas-fired plant, data center or new pipeline delivery point in the five counties was not found; PJM's Cycle 1 applications by county are not published in a form code could save, and Pennsylvania Bulletin notices do not allow scripted access. A Pennsylvania Bulletin notice for an 8-inch UGI Utilities pipeline in Lower Paxton Township (Dauphin County) was seen only in a blog digest and is a distribution pipeline notice, not a documented load. Manual downloads are listed in batches/PJM-01/tara_review_addendum.md.
13. UGI Utilities, Inc. - Gas Division, Docket R-2025-3059523, Book I, response to I-C-1 part a. (PDF 62), delivered January 28, 2026; utility filing, system-wide. The same sentence also names UGI Sunbury, UGI Mt. Bethel Pipeline, Adelphia Gateway and UGI Storage, which the map does not draw. [SCP-33 to SCP-37] ↩
14. UGI Gas tariff Book X, Description of Territory (PDF 9 to 23), for Carbon, Lehigh, Northampton, Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming counties; Book III (PDF 66) on the October 1, 2020 merger of UGI Central Penn Gas and UGI Penn Natural Gas into UGI Gas; Book VI (PDF 195); Book II (PDF 18 and PDF 31). Utility statements. UGI Gas, UGI Penn Natural Gas and UGI Central Penn Gas are separate names; the filings read treat them as one company since 2020, and do not say which supply lines serve which former area. [VA1-ADD-07, VA1-ADD-08, VA1-ADD-09; VA1-ADD-01 to VA1-ADD-11] ↩
15. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned and Operating sheets), a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 and the PJM Transition Cycle 1 Phase III list, by county, run by code for Carbon, Lehigh, Northampton, Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming counties (derived_additions.txt); Census Bureau Vintage 2025 population estimates. Warren County, New Jersey, not searched. Existing generation is not new load. [VA1-ADD-12 to VA1-ADD-24] ↩

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

1. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket R-2025-3059523, UGI Utilities, Inc. - Gas Division base rate case: Book I, filing requirement responses (valuation). Link
2. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket R-2025-3059523, UGI Utilities, Inc. - Gas Division base rate case: Book II, standard data request responses. Link
3. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket R-2025-3059523: Book X, tariff Pa. P.U.C. No. 7, Supplement No. 59. Link
4. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket R-2025-3059523: Joint Petition for Approval of Settlement of All Issues. Link
5. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket R-2025-3059523: Commission Opinion and Order. Link
6. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket R-2025-3059523: Book III and Book VI. Link and Link
7. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket page for R-2025-3059523. Link
8. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
9. U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Resident Population Estimates for Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Vintage 2025.
10. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
11. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link
12. PJM Interconnection, Transition Cycle 1 Phase III Executive Summary. Link