Ohio and Kentucky natural gas case study, Cincinnati area. October 2026

Cincinnati-area natural gas capacity: one utility's design day table shows no gap line, and its new pipelines are still only proposed

Duke Energy Ohio's 2023 report lists a Peak Day Design of 915,511 Dth per day at 1/1/2025 against Total Capacity of 669,377 Dth per day, with no gap, reserve or supply line, and says its design day requirements include firm load that third-party suppliers serve; it lists four further pipelines as only proposed for 2028 to 2033, each with the consequence of deferment stated as a higher degree of customer curtailment.

915,511 Dth per dayPeak Day Design at 1/1/2025, Duke Energy Ohio system, per Duke Energy Ohio
669,377 Dth per dayTotal Capacity (pipeline firm transportation plus storage) at 1/1/2025, Duke Energy Ohio system, per Duke Energy Ohio
1-in-30-yearDesign day standard, Duke Energy Ohio system, per Duke Energy Ohio
4 pipelinesPlanned lines listed as only Proposed, Duke Energy Ohio system, per Duke Energy Ohio

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated .

Metro used: the Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN metropolitan statistical area, as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023): Brown, Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton and Pendleton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn, Franklin and Ohio counties in Indiana. Serving utilities are taken from the Discovery Energy crosswalk built from EIA-176 county lists: Duke Energy Ohio, Inc. (Duke Energy Ohio) in five Ohio counties, about 76% of the metro's population, and Duke Energy Kentucky, Inc. (Duke Energy Kentucky) in seven Kentucky counties, about 21%. Duke Energy Kentucky's tariff describes Duke Energy Ohio and Duke Energy Kentucky as an integrated operating system. The crosswalk also lists municipal systems, cooperatives and Columbia Gas of Kentucky in Bracken County, and six gas operators in the Indiana counties (80,889 people, about 3.5% of the metro). None of those is covered here: they are stated gaps, so confidence is Medium. The figures below are whole-system tables that the utilities do not allocate by county; they are the most local figures the record has, and each is labeled by its geography. The Duke Energy Ohio figures come from its 2023 Long-Term Forecast Report to the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO), Case No. 23‑0544‑GA-FOR, the latest such report found on the PUCO site, and its capacity table ends at 1/1/2025.1

Key takeaways

  • Duke Energy Ohio told the PUCO in its 2023 Long-Term Forecast Report that its design day is a 1-in-30-year event of 81.3 wind-adjusted heating degree days, a figure for its whole system.1
  • Its table of city gate peak day firm capacity lists a Peak Day Design of 899,255 Dth per day at 1/1/2023 and 915,511 at 1/1/2025, and Total Capacity of 553,661 and 669,377 Dth per day on the same dates, for the whole Duke Energy Ohio system.1
  • Duke Energy Ohio said its peak day requirements include load that third-party suppliers serve and are reduced by that supply to find the capacity it must acquire, and the table shows no gap or reserve line, so this page does not state a margin.1
  • Duke Energy Ohio's Bethel-Batavia pipeline in Clermont County, listed for construction in Summer 2023, shows a compliance notice on the PUCO docket filed on November 30, 2023, titled as a commercial operation notice.2
  • Four further lines in Clermont and Warren counties and elsewhere on its system are listed as Proposed for 2028, 2029, 2032 and 2033, with capital investment and application timing undetermined for the Lebanon Connector, the Eastern Loop and the Eastern Loop-Lebanon Connector.2
  • Duke Energy Kentucky's gas tariff sets a curtailment sequence for its Kentucky system that starts with Rate IT customers and protects Priority Use Customers, effective January 2026; the Kentucky record read holds no design-day or capacity figures.3

Which parts of the record fall inside the Cincinnati metro?

The table sorts the record by utility, using the Discovery Energy crosswalk of utilities to metro counties and the OMB county list. None of the filings read allocates its figures to the metro's counties.4

Where Utility and what was read
Brown, Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties, Ohio Duke Energy Ohio: design day, city gate capacity table and planned lines (whole system)
Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton and Pendleton counties, Kentucky Duke Energy Kentucky: rate case order and tariff curtailment plan (no design-day figures)
Dearborn, Franklin and Ohio counties, Indiana Not reached: Ohio Valley Gas Corp, Sycamore Gas Co, Aurora Utilities System, South Eastern Indiana Natural Gas, Valley Rural Utility Co and Batesville Gas Utility are listed by the crosswalk; no Indiana gas planning record was sought
Bracken County, Kentucky Columbia Gas of Kentucky and municipal systems are listed beside Duke Energy Kentucky; the overlap is unclear and no places are assigned
Butler, Hamilton and Warren counties, Ohio Municipal gas, Glenwood Energy of Oxford and Knox Energy Cooperative are listed beside Duke Energy Ohio; not read

Utility records by whether they fall inside the Cincinnati metro (OMB delineation). Source: utility filings in the Notes; county crosswalk from EIA-176.4

System context: the interstate pipelines named below reach Duke Energy Ohio upstream of the metro, and the record places none of them at a gate station inside it.

How much spare gas capacity does Cincinnati have on the coldest day?

Major natural gas pipelines serving Cincinnati N Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Rockies Express Rockies Express Texas Gas Transmission Texas Gas Transmission Columbia Gulf Transmission Columbia Gulf Transmission Other transmission pipelines in the EIA layer (interstate and intrastate; unlabeled) Pipeline named in a verified claim on this page (labeled, one color each) Metro counties (boundary used on this page) Major highways (for orientation)
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving Cincinnati. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

Duke Energy Ohio's report says its design day is a 1-in-30-year event, defined as 81.3 wind-adjusted heating degree days, with a wind-adjusted Design Day temperature of negative 16.3 degrees Fahrenheit. The company said it elected to use a third-party design day demand forecast for winter 2022-2023.1 Its table of city gate peak day firm capacity reflects design day assumptions as of January 31, 2023.1

Date Peak Day Design (Dth per day) Total Capacity (Dth per day)
1/1/2023 899,255 553,661
1/1/2024 906,890 669,377
1/1/2025 915,511 669,377

Duke Energy Ohio's city gate peak day firm capacity table, Dth per day, whole Duke Energy Ohio system, as filed. Total Capacity is pipeline firm transportation plus pipeline storage. The 1/1/2024 column is read from the page image. The table shows no gap, reserve or supply line.1

The two lines are not on the same basis in the way the company describes them. Duke Energy Ohio said its calculated peak day and peak season requirements represent the total firm load, including the load that will be supplied by third parties in its FT and RFT programs, and that the requirements are reduced by the estimated supply those third parties provide to find the capacity it needs to acquire, with a further adjustment for capacity it releases to suppliers.1 This page therefore does not subtract one line from the other: the arithmetic difference at 1/1/2025 is 246,134 Dth per day, calculated from Duke Energy Ohio figures, but the report does not call it a gap or a shortfall.5

Pipeline service at 1/1/2025 Dth per day
Texas Gas 161,545
Tennessee, via KO Transmission 23,573
Columbia Gulf, via KO Transmission 67,686
Rockies Express 57,000
Columbia Gas 118,059
Total pipeline firm transportation 427,863
Columbia Gas FSS storage 216,514
Texas Gas NNS storage 25,000
Total pipeline storage 241,514

Duke Energy Ohio's city gate peak day firm capacity table at 1/1/2025, Dth per day, whole Duke Energy Ohio system, as filed. A footnote says KO Trans was acquired by Columbia Gas on February 1, 2023.1

Texas Gas firm transportation is 17.6% of the 915,511 Dth per day Peak Day Design, and Columbia Gas FSS storage is 23.7%, calculated from Duke Energy Ohio figures (illustrative; the Peak Day Design includes load served by third-party suppliers).5 Duke Energy Ohio said it does not own any storage facilities and subscribes to storage on the Columbia Gas Transmission and Texas Gas Transmission systems, and that it relies mainly on short-term, seasonal supply contracts for its firm sales customers.1

Duke Energy Kentucky. The Kentucky Public Service Commission (Kentucky PSC) decided Duke Energy Kentucky's gas rate case on December 23, 2025.3 The case's filings, 113 of them saved and scanned by code, hold no design-day demand, supply or capacity figure, so Duke Energy Kentucky's own margin on the coldest day is not established.3

What is driving new natural gas demand?

Duke Energy Ohio's planned-line forms cite growth in general terms: loops to increase capacity for mixed customer growth in Clermont County and, for one line, for future industrial growth.2 The forms name no customer, load or service date. A search of other official records found no planned natural gas-fired generator in any of the 15 metro counties in EIA's September 2026 inventory, and no Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pipeline notice naming a metro county with a pipeline docket number since January 1, 2025.6

Are upgrades arriving in time?

The Bethel-Batavia pipeline (existing line C338 at Bethel to the Batavia area in Clermont County, about 84,750 feet) was listed for construction in Summer 2023 under Case No. 20‑1411‑GA-BTX.2 The PUCO case record lists, on November 30, 2023, Duke Energy Ohio's Notice of Compliance with Condition 10, titled as a commercial operation notice; the notice itself was not opened.2

Four lines are listed as Proposed. The Lebanon Connector (to the Lebanon hub in Warren County) is listed for 2028, with capital investment and application timing undetermined and its purpose given as greater operational flexibility and diversified supply. The Eastern Loop (Batavia area to Goshen area in Clermont County) is listed for 2029 and was deferred from the previous report. The Eastern Loop-Lebanon Connector is listed for 2032 and C338 Phase 2 for 2033.2 For the Lebanon Connector Duke Energy Ohio listed the consequence of deferment as a potential for a higher degree of customer curtailment; for the Eastern Loop and Bethel-Batavia, a higher degree of customer curtailment in warmer temperatures and lack of future growth in the area.2 The report states no need date, so this page cannot say whether a line arrives before a need. A PUCO or Ohio Power Siting Board approval for these lines was not found in the records read. Duke Energy Ohio said it neither owns nor proposes to construct any storage facilities.2

What does this mean for business gas costs?

For Kentucky, the Kentucky PSC's December 2025 order says Duke Energy Kentucky applied the average and excess method, also called the average and peak demand method, in its cost of service study.3 Duke Energy Kentucky proposed to eliminate 50 percent of the subsidy or excess revenues between customer classes, based on present revenues, and the Kentucky PSC accepted the cost of service study in accordance with the stipulation.3 These are the parties' positions and the Kentucky PSC's finding on method; no dollar effect on business customers is stated here. Duke Energy Ohio's current rate case (26‑0635‑GA-AIR, filed June 2026) was not read.

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

Duke Energy Kentucky's tariff (Sheet No. 83, effective January 3, 2026) says that in an emergency that necessitates curtailment it shall curtail gas service in the manner set out in its plan.3 Priority Use Customers are defined as gas supply needed for human needs customers and for specific and definable plant protection purposes.3 Stage 1 of a mandatory curtailment is interruption of Rate IT customers; stage 2 adds firm gas to customers using more than fifty thousand cubic feet per day, except Priority Use Customers for such priority use; stage 3 adds gas to firm customers, with the same exception.3 This is the tariff's wording, not a statement that any curtailment is expected. Duke Energy Ohio's gas tariff was not read for this page.

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

National layer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for, among other areas, the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions, a discussion that names regions and not counties, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%.B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.A1

Regional layer. EIA's weekly storage table, released October 22, 2026, lists working gas in the East storage region of 900 billion cubic feet for the week of October 16, 2026; EIA's comparison of the region with its five-year average is not established here, because the weekly report page could not be read by script.C1 EIA's monthly natural gas citygate price for Ohio was 4.72 dollars per Mcf in April 2026, the latest month with a numeric value, and for Kentucky 3.44 dollars per Mcf in July 2026; these are state series, shown as context only.C2C3 Recent winter or critical notices posted by the pipelines named in Duke Energy Ohio's table (Texas Gas Transmission, Columbia Gas Transmission, Columbia Gulf Transmission, Tennessee Gas Pipeline and Rockies Express Pipeline) are not established: their posting sites could not be read by script. These are regional and national facts, not statements about the utilities' systems, and none is used to set the outlook on this page.

Policy context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level, a factor or a trigger. Its sources are listed separately under Policy sources.

Ohio Revised Code Section 4933.41, in effect since September 30, 2021 (House Bill 201), says every person seeking distribution or retail natural gas service has the right to obtain any available such service from a natural gas company with capacity to provide it in that location.[D1] Kentucky's 2021 Act (House Bill 207, Chapter 120) creates a section of Kentucky Revised Statutes Chapter 65 that bars local legislative or administrative action having the purpose or effect of restricting, based on energy source, a consumer's ability to use specified regulated utility services, and it preserves the Public Service Commission's powers.[D2] Indiana policy was not searched because the Indiana counties are not covered by this page.

What is the outlook for Cincinnati gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Cincinnati-area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): Duke Energy Ohio's 2023 report lists four further pipelines only as Proposed, with investment and application timing undetermined and curtailment named as the consequence of deferment, and shows a peak day design above its listed firm capacity with no gap line, though the figures are whole-system and the Kentucky and Indiana records hold no design-day figures. Documented risk factors: concentration (F1), with one pipeline service above 10% of the Peak Day Design as calculated from Duke Energy Ohio figures; one factor does not raise the level. Three developments would change the assessment: Duke Energy Ohio's next Long-Term Forecast Report at the PUCO (a design day and capacity table after 1/1/2025, and any gap or reserve line); a PUCO or Ohio Power Siting Board application, order or date for the Lebanon Connector or the Eastern Loop; any Duke Energy Ohio or Duke Energy Kentucky notice of curtailment, operational flow order or capacity limit on new firm service.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What should Cincinnati-area facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Which service. Confirm whether each site takes firm or interruptible service; Duke Energy Kentucky's tariff starts a mandatory curtailment with Rate IT customers.
  • Which utility. Confirm whether the site is served by Duke Energy Ohio, Duke Energy Kentucky, an Indiana distributor, a municipal system or another utility, because the records differ by utility.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Upcoming proceedings. Track Duke Energy Ohio's next Long-Term Forecast Report and its Lebanon Connector and Eastern Loop plans, and Duke Energy Ohio's rate case.

Frequently asked questions

Will Cincinnati businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The record does not show a shortage. Duke Energy Ohio's 2023 report lists a Peak Day Design of 915,511 Dth per day at 1/1/2025 against Total Capacity of 669,377 Dth per day and shows no gap line, a table for its whole system. This page makes no prediction about outages.

Is there spare gas capacity in the Cincinnati area on the coldest day?

It is not established. Duke Energy Ohio's table lists a Peak Day Design above Total Capacity and does not call the difference a gap; the company said its requirements include load that third-party suppliers serve. The Kentucky record holds no design-day figures.

Is Duke Energy Ohio building new gas pipelines?

It listed four as Proposed for 2028, 2029, 2032 and 2033, with investment and application timing undetermined for three of them. Its Bethel-Batavia pipeline in Clermont County, listed for Summer 2023, shows a commercial operation compliance notice on the PUCO docket dated November 30, 2023.

Is new demand driving gas use in the Cincinnati area?

Duke Energy Ohio's forms cite customer and industrial growth in general terms and name no load. EIA's September 2026 inventory lists no planned gas-fired generator in the metro's 15 counties.

Who is cut first if Duke Energy Kentucky must curtail service?

Its tariff starts a mandatory curtailment with interruptible transportation (Rate IT) customers, then firm customers using more than fifty thousand cubic feet per day, then firm customers, with exceptions for Priority Use Customers. Duke Energy Ohio's terms were not read.

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Understand your capacity exposure

Discovery Energy reviews service elections, interruption terms and regulatory proceedings for organizations across the U.S. and Canada, so capacity changes are understood before they reach the bill.

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Notes

  1. Duke Energy Ohio, Inc., 2023 Long-Term Forecast Report for Gas Demand, Gas Supply, and Facility Projections (PUCO Case No. 23‑0544‑GA-FOR; filed June 1, 2023, per the PUCO case card), PDF 2 (preface), PDF 38 and PDF 41 to PDF 43 (supply and design day discussion), PDF 40 (city gate peak day firm capacity table, an image page read by OCR; the figures are confirmed by code against OCR text and column sums, and the 1/1/2024 Peak Day Design of 906,890 was read by eye). Saved by Sam Strong from the PUCO site and identified by its contents. Utility statements. [CIN-01 to CIN-13] ↩
  2. Duke Energy Ohio, same report, Form FG3-2 (PDF 52 and PDF 61 to PDF 64) and Form FG2-4 (PDF 47); PUCO case record for 20‑1411‑GA-BTX (first page of the document list). Utility statements and a regulator docket record. [CIN-14 to CIN-23] ↩
  3. Kentucky Public Service Commission, Order of December 23, 2025, Case No. 2025-00125 (PDF 1 and PDF 19 to PDF 20); Duke Energy Kentucky, Inc. gas tariff KY.P.S.C. Gas No. 2, Sheets No. 44 and No. 83 (effective January 3, 2026); a keyword scan by code of the 113 filings saved from the case. Commission order and utility tariff. [CIN-24 to CIN-34] ↩
  4. Metro counties from the Census OMB delineation; utility-to-county matches from EIA-176 (2024) as built into the Discovery Energy crosswalk. [CIN-24] ↩
  5. Calculations run by code (cincinnati_calculations.csv; illustrative), each from the two Duke Energy Ohio figures named: Texas Gas 161,545 / 915,511, Columbia Gas FSS storage 216,514 / 915,511, and the difference 915,511 less 669,377. The Peak Day Design includes load that third-party suppliers serve, so none of these is a margin. [CIN-07 to CIN-09] ↩
  6. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet, operator-reported planned dates), filtered to the metro counties by code, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by county phrase, both computed by code. A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [CIN-36 to CIN-39] ↩
  7. Not established, and left out of the page: supply events since January 1, 2020 affecting the serving systems (the FERC-NERC Winter Storm Elliott report and the Kentucky filings name neither Duke utility, scanned by code; no EIA weekly or pipeline notice search beyond this); delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (not scriptable; next capture about March 2027); who pays for Duke Energy Ohio (its 2026 rate case files are manual downloads); the interruption terms of Duke Energy Ohio (its gas tariff is on a host that blocks scripts); Duke Energy Kentucky's design day and capacity figures; any Indiana gas record; and the municipal and cooperative systems in Hamilton, Butler, Warren and Bracken counties. [CIN-25, CIN-35]
  8. R3 not established beyond the searches in Note 6, and left out of the claims: Ohio EPA air permit records, Ohio Power Siting Board case pages (not readable by script), the PJM interconnection queue by county, and FERC eLibrary certificate filings; news reports are leads only and are not claimed.

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25 and 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
  2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
  3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩
  4. C1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026. Link ↩
  5. C2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Ohio Natural Gas Citygate Price, monthly. Link ↩
  6. C3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Kentucky Natural Gas Citygate Price, monthly. Link ↩

Policy sources

Official state sources saved and hashed on October 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes.

  1. D1. Ohio Legislative Service Commission, Ohio Revised Code Section 4933.41. Link
  2. D2. Kentucky Legislative Research Commission, 2021 Kentucky Acts Chapter 120 (House Bill 207). Link

Sources

  1. Duke Energy Ohio, Inc., 2023 Long-Term Forecast Report, PUCO Case No. 23-0544-GA-FOR. Link
  2. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, Case Record for 20-1411-GA-BTX. Link
  3. Kentucky Public Service Commission, Case No. 2025-00125, Duke Energy Kentucky gas rate case. Link
  4. Duke Energy Kentucky, Inc., Gas Tariff KY.P.S.C. Gas No. 2. Link
  5. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
  7. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link