Missouri natural gas case study, St. Louis area. October 2026
St. Louis natural gas capacity: the main utility's plan shows a thin 2027-28 reserve
Spire's November 2024 plan puts its Missouri East system's 2027-28 reserve margin at 4.88%, below the 5% thin-margin threshold, and does not forecast needing more capacity to move gas through pipelines. The Illinois side of the metro is not covered.
Metro used: the St. Louis, MO-IL metropolitan statistical area, as defined by the federal government in the Office of Management and Budget's Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023).24 This page relies on the plan of Spire Missouri Inc. (Spire) for its Missouri East system, which does not cover the Illinois side of the metro.
Key takeaways
- Spire's November 20, 2024 plan sets the 2026-27 design day (the coldest day it plans for) at 1,223,767 dekatherms (units of gas energy) per day, a 5.19% margin systemwide.1
- In the same table the margin is 5.27% or more in every winter after 2027-28.2
- The record shows no approved or scheduled fix for 2027-28: absent unforeseen changes, Spire expects no near-term changes to its supply portfolio.9
- Peak-day supply leans on two sources, Lange storage and the MRT forward haul, each carrying more than 10% of the design day by our calculation from Spire's table.2
- Little pipeline capacity is left to add: Spire says Enable MRT and Southern Star have none available for the areas it names.4
- The Illinois counties are not covered, and Missouri Public Service Commission staff reviews of Spire's capacity were not found by our automated search.5
Who serves the St. Louis area?
Spire's tariff (sheets R-1 and R-1.1), the document that lists where it serves, names the City of St. Louis, St. Louis County, St. Charles County and Jefferson County.6 It also names part of Franklin County, the eastern Franklin County District.7 Our county lists, built from the federal EIA-176 survey, tie other gas utilities to some counties. They show where a utility reports operations, not its tariff territory, and they name Ameren Illinois and several smaller systems in the Illinois counties and the New Haven and Berger systems in Franklin County.22 For the other counties, no other utility's record was read. Spire does not publish figures for the St. Louis area alone, so the figures on this page cover its whole Missouri East system. That system includes customers outside the metro, in Butler, Iron, St. Francois and Ste. Genevieve counties and Madison County, Missouri, that cannot be separated out.8 The Illinois side of the metro is not covered: the Illinois counties, Lincoln County and Warren County are not named in Spire's tariff or in any record reviewed for this page.5
Has St. Louis had gas supply problems since 2020?
The records reviewed show no supply event for St. Louis in the last five heating seasons. Spire said that during Winter Storms Uri, Elliott, Gerri and Heather it was able to meet its customers' demand across its service territories.3 This is Spire's own statement, and it names no event. Spire said its Spire STL Pipeline, in service since November 2019, has been a crucial addition to its reliability and resiliency.9 This is Spire's own statement, not a finding by a regulator.
How much spare gas capacity does St. Louis have on the coldest day?
Spire's plan shows thin spare capacity in winter 2027-28. The number to watch is 4.88%. Spire's table shows capacity of 1,287,279 dekatherms per day against a design day of 1,227,405.1 That is 1,497 dekatherms per day below the 5% reserve Spire plans to hold.
| Winter | Capacity (dekatherms per day) | Design day (dekatherms per day) | Reserve margin | Below (in parentheses) or above the design day plus a 5% reserve (dekatherms per day) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 1,287,279 | 1,223,767 | 5.19% | 2,323 |
| 2027-28 | 1,287,279 | 1,227,405 | 4.88% | (1,497) |
| 2028-29 | 1,287,279 | 1,222,240 | 5.32% | 3,927 |
| 2029-30 | 1,287,279 | 1,221,277 | 5.40% | 4,938 |
| 2030-31 | 1,287,279 | 1,220,047 | 5.51% | 6,229 |
Spire's Missouri East supply forecast, November 20, 2024 plan: capacity, design day and reserve margin by winter.10
Spire's own margin figures and the margins calculated from its table match in every winter shown.23 Capacity stays the same in every winter of the twenty-year forecast, so the margin moves only with the design day, which Spire's forecast has declining slightly in Missouri East.11 Two sources carry a large share of the design day: Lange storage, 357,000 dekatherms per day (29.2% of the 2026-27 design day), and the MRT forward haul, 480,779 (39.3%), shares we calculated from Spire's table.2 Two Spire tables give slightly different totals. Spire's city gate table, which lists capacity where each pipeline delivers gas to Spire's system, shows a total of 1,273,679 dekatherms per day, below the forecast table's total.4 The difference arises because the city gate table lists the Spire STL Pipeline at 190,000 and the forecast table at 193,600. The plan does not explain the difference. Spire said it contracts with MRT for 22,000,000 dekatherms of firm storage. It said the maximum daily withdrawal is at least 334,522 dekatherms per day, depending on whether MRT recalls it.12 Spire also said its Lange storage has about 4 billion cubic feet of working capacity. The forecast table lists Lange but no separate MRT storage line. The plan does not say whether MRT storage withdrawals are inside the MRT lines. Spire said it releases about 23,000 dekatherms per day of MRT capacity each winter to marketers serving schools, and can recall it if a marketer cannot perform.4
What is driving new natural gas demand?
The public records reviewed show no new large gas customer tied to Spire for the St. Louis metro, and one site with planned gas-fired power generation. The federal Energy Information Administration's September 2026 inventory of planned generators (EIA-860M) lists three planned natural gas combustion turbines in the metro's 15 counties, all at Ameren Missouri's Castle Bluff Energy Center in St. Louis County.13 Each is 216 megawatts, planned for October 2027, and the inventory does not say how the units will be supplied with gas.19 A search of Federal Register notices from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) about pipelines, since January 2025, for the metro's counties found none. Spire said growth areas on its systems may require changes to its supply portfolio or distribution system, which may not result in added supply.9 Data centers: In October 2026, we found no gas-fired plant, pipeline lateral (a branch line) or special gas contract serving a data center on Spire's Missouri East system in the official records we searched.14 The Missouri commission's order of November 24, 2025 on Ameren Missouri's large load rate plan concerns electric service, not gas; it states a tariff and a variance and names no project size.15
Are upgrades arriving in time?
Spire's plan shows no pipeline or storage addition for Missouri East. It said it does not forecast needing to add incremental transportation capacity (more capacity to move gas through pipelines), and that, absent unforeseen changes, it expects no near-term changes to its supply portfolio.9 Spire also said that regional pipelines serving Missouri East have very limited remaining city-gate capacity, which limits how much it could add if it chose to. Enable MRT has none available from its field zone to the market zone that serves the St. Louis area, Southern Star has none for the western side of St. Louis, and the Spire STL Pipeline has 50,000 and MoGas Pipeline 15,000 dekatherms per day available.4
Winter and market context
St. Louis spans Missouri and Illinois, and both states sit in EIA's Midwest storage region, which held 1,065 billion cubic feet of working gas in the week ending October 16, 2026, according to EIA's weekly table. The five-year comparison EIA states was not read. EIA's citygate price tables list 8.52 dollars per thousand cubic feet in Missouri for July 2026 and 3.75 in Illinois.C2 NOAA's October 15, 2026 discussion reviewed gives no temperature outlook for Missouri, and the national inventory, El Nino and spot price figures do not bear on the St. Louis system, so they are in the note.25 Southern Star's public page lists no recent winter or critical notices.D1 The posting pages of Energy Transfer (which operates the Mississippi River Transmission system), the Spire STL Pipeline and MoGas were not read, because Energy Transfer's site disallows automated downloads, so the public record does not show recent notices for those pipelines on this page's map. The next capture is the early December winter refresh.
Winter weather
All three of the last three winters were milder than the 1991-2020 normal at the St Louis Lambert International Airport weather station, measured in heating degree days, which count how far each day's average temperature fell below 65 degrees Fahrenheit.16
| Station | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Louis Lambert International Airport | 77.7% of normal | 90.4% of normal | 91.6% of normal |
Heating degree days, November to March, as a share of the 1991-2020 normal, by winter.17
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook issued October 15, 2026 gives the metro near-equal chances of above, near and below normal temperatures for November 2026 to January 2027 and leans toward above normal for December 2026 to February 2027; these are probabilities for a three-month average, not a forecast of specific days or of an outage.18
What is the outlook for St. Louis gas capacity through 2029?
Discovery Energy rates the outlook for St. Louis natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): the 2027-28 margin falls below the 5% thin-margin threshold and the record shows no approved or scheduled fix. Documented risk factors: concentration, because Lange storage and the MRT forward haul each carry more than 10% of the design day, by our calculation from the same Spire table. One risk factor does not raise the level. Three developments would change the assessment: (1) Spire, a later plan or a Missouri Public Service Commission review shows a different 2027-28 margin, more winters below 5%, or a capacity addition with a budget or approval; (2) Spire or the Commission documents a change in its design day forecast, or in Lange or MRT storage deliverability; (3) records for the Illinois counties, where Ameren Illinois and others serve, are read and show a constraint. A further trigger: a filing that ties the gas supply of the three planned Castle Bluff turbines to Spire would be tested as new load ahead of the fix. Until then the records reviewed do not say how the units will be supplied with gas, so they do not change the rating.19 Confidence is Medium: the base level rests on Spire's record for its whole Missouri East system, which covers St. Louis and the surrounding area but cannot be split out for the metro alone; the Illinois side is not covered; and the plan is from November 2024, inside the four-year limit this page uses for a current record. Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.
What's new (as of October 28, 2026)
No filing dated in the past 90 days was found that changes Spire's Missouri East record; the plan on which this page rests is dated November 2024.14 EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists the three planned Castle Bluff turbines for October 2027.19
What should St. Louis-area facilities check now?
- Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
- Which utility and rate. Confirm whether each site is served by Spire, another Missouri or Illinois utility or a municipal system, and which rate class it is on, because the records reviewed cover only Spire's Missouri East system.
- Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December, because the pipelines serving St. Louis have little capacity available for Spire to add.
- Upcoming proceedings. Watch for Spire's next integrated resource plan and any Missouri Public Service Commission review of its gas supply. Discovery Energy reviews service elections, interruption terms and regulatory proceedings for organizations across the U.S. and Canada, so capacity changes are understood before they reach the bill. [Schedule a review]
Frequently asked questions
Will St. Louis businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?
The records reviewed do not show a shortage. Spire's November 2024 plan shows a thin reserve margin in 2027-28, a utility projection for the whole Missouri East system. See 'How much spare gas capacity does St. Louis have on the coldest day?'
Is there spare gas capacity in the St. Louis area on the coldest day?
Thin, on Spire's figures: the 2026-27 margin is just above its 5% reserve and the 2027-28 margin is below it. Spire also says the pipelines serving St. Louis have very limited remaining city-gate capacity. See 'How much spare gas capacity does St. Louis have on the coldest day?'
Does Spire plan to add gas capacity for St. Louis?
Not in the records reviewed. Spire said in November 2024 that it does not forecast needing to add incremental transportation capacity at this time. See 'Are upgrades arriving in time?'
Which gas utility serves the St. Louis area?
Spire's tariff names the City of St. Louis, St. Louis County, St. Charles County, Jefferson County and part of Franklin County. Illinois counties in the metro are served by other utilities, including Ameren Illinois, whose records were not read. See 'Who serves the St. Louis area?'
What should St. Louis facilities check now?
Confirm the utility and rate class for each site, check tariffs and charges through a utility audit, review backup-fuel and curtailment plans before December, and watch for Spire's next plan or a Commission review.
Related case studies
Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.
- Kansas City (Missouri side) natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
- Cincinnati area natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
- Minneapolis and the CenterPoint area natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
- Chicago natural gas capacity case study (outlook: High)
Understand your capacity exposure
Schedule a reviewNotes
- Spire, d/b/a Spire Missouri East and Spire Missouri West, 2024 Integrated Resource Plan (final, November 20, 2024), Missouri Public Service Commission, PDF page 42 (East and West 20-year supply forecast tables). A utility filing; the figures are for the whole Missouri East system. Column heads: winter, firm design day forecast, minimum reserve at 5%, total requirement with 5% reserve, firm transport by pipeline, current projected available capacity, reserve margin percentage, resource (shortfall) or sufficiency. ↩
- Calculations: margin = (capacity - design day) / design day; shortfall = capacity - total requirement with 5% reserve; share = source line / current projected available capacity, or / design day, both for 2026-27 and from the same table. Illustrative of the plan's own figures; not a Spire statement. ↩
- Same plan, PDF pages 24, 33 and 41 (4.2 system description, 5.4 peak day forecast approach, 6.5 future portfolio). Utility statements, not findings. The peak day forecast method is a nonlinear multivariate autoregressive regression on heating-degree days, with one forecast for each system. Spire said, based on its 20-year demand forecast and current supply portfolios, that it does not forecast needing to add incremental transportation capacity at this time. ↩
- Same plan, PDF pages 36 to 38 (6.2.1 City gate pipeline transport capacity: city gate capacity tables and Spire's statements on capacity available from each pipeline). ↩
- Not established, and left out of the page: the Missouri Public Service Commission's staff reliability reviews of Spire (not found; the commission's EFIS system was not searched); records for the Illinois counties (Ameren Illinois, Liberty Utilities, municipal systems); who pays (cost allocation among customer classes); tariff interruption priorities and penalties; delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (next capture about March 1, 2027); the FY2025 Spire annual reports to the commission, which are not public (the links point to a staging host that requires a login). ↩
- Spire, Rules and Regulations, P.S.C. MO. No. 9, Sheets R-1 (West operating unit) and R-1.1 (East operating unit), file posted November 2025, sheets dated December 2021. A tariff names counties served; it does not say how many customers in each county. ↩
- Spire, Rules and Regulations, P.S.C. MO. No. 9, Sheets R-1 (West operating unit) and R-1.1 (East operating unit), file posted November 2025, sheets dated December 2021. A tariff names counties served; it does not say how many customers in each county. ↩
- Spire, Rules and Regulations, P.S.C. MO. No. 9, Sheets R-1 (West operating unit) and R-1.1 (East operating unit), file posted November 2025, sheets dated December 2021. A tariff names counties served; it does not say how many customers in each county. ↩
- Same plan, PDF pages 24, 33 and 41 (4.2 system description, 5.4 peak day forecast approach, 6.5 future portfolio). Utility statements, not findings. The peak day forecast method is a nonlinear multivariate autoregressive regression on heating-degree days, with one forecast for each system. ↩
- Spire, d/b/a Spire Missouri East and Spire Missouri West, 2024 Integrated Resource Plan (final, November 20, 2024), Missouri Public Service Commission, PDF page 42 (East and West 20-year supply forecast tables). A utility filing; the figures are for the whole Missouri East system. Column heads: winter, firm design day forecast, minimum reserve at 5%, total requirement with 5% reserve, firm transport by pipeline, current projected available capacity, reserve margin percentage, resource (shortfall) or sufficiency. ↩
- Spire, d/b/a Spire Missouri East and Spire Missouri West, 2024 Integrated Resource Plan (final, November 20, 2024), Missouri Public Service Commission, PDF page 42 (East and West 20-year supply forecast tables). A utility filing; the figures are for the whole Missouri East system. Column heads: winter, firm design day forecast, minimum reserve at 5%, total requirement with 5% reserve, firm transport by pipeline, current projected available capacity, reserve margin percentage, resource (shortfall) or sufficiency. ↩
- Same plan, PDF pages 38 and 39 (6.2.3 contracted pipeline storage capacity and 6.2.4 on-system underground storage capacity). Utility statements. ↩
- Lines computed from EIA-860M (September 2026, Planned sheet), the Federal Register search of FERC notices by county and Discovery Energy's EIA-176 county lists; the EIA-860M file is. The inventory is preliminary and does not list data centers or units not yet reported; U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860M, September 2026 release, Planned sheet, gas-fired units counted from the saved file. ↩
- Discovery Energy data center scan log, October 28, 2026; a search that finds nothing does not prove that no project exists. ↩
- Missouri Public Service Commission (EFIS), Application for rehearing of order on Ameren Missouri large load rate plan, File ET-2025-0184 (2025-11-24 (order); rehearing application December 2025), Application, introduction. ↩
- NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for ST LOUIS LAMBERT INTL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for ST LOUIS LAMBERT INTL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for ST LOUIS LAMBERT INTL AIRPORT, November to March, computed. [W5-WX-HDD-st_louis-2023-24, W5-WX-HDD-st_louis-2024-25, W5-WX-HDD-st_louis-2025-26]. ↩
- NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for ST LOUIS LAMBERT INTL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for ST LOUIS LAMBERT INTL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for ST LOUIS LAMBERT INTL AIRPORT, November to March, computed. [W5-WX-HDD-st_louis-2023-24, W5-WX-HDD-st_louis-2024-25, W5-WX-HDD-st_louis-2025-26]. ↩
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed. [W5-WX-CPC-st_louis-1, W5-WX-CPC-st_louis-2]. For November 2026 to January 2027 the chances are 33.0% above normal, 33.3% near normal and 33.7% below normal; for December 2026 to February 2027 they are 40.0% above normal, 33.3% near normal and 26.7% below normal. ↩
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860M, September 2026 release, Planned sheet, gas-fired units counted from the saved file. ↩
- Spire's FY2023 (East) and FY2024 (East and West) annual reports to the Missouri Public Service Commission were registered by hand (to 03) and read for capacity data; they hold financial and plant schedules and no design day or supply tables, so no figure on this page comes from them.
- R11 searched: Missouri bills on local restrictions on gas connections (found as bills, no enacted statute confirmed) and Illinois policy (not searched, because the Illinois side is not covered); no policy item is established for this page, so the section is omitted.
- County table and county lists: populations are Census Vintage 2025 estimates; which counties Spire's tariff names comes from Spire's tariff sheets R-1 and R-1.1; the other utilities come from Discovery Energy's county lists built from the federal EIA-176 survey (read only), which show where a utility reports operations, not tariff territory. "No other utility's record was read" means no record from any other utility was read for that county. The metro's counties follow the federal Office of Management and Budget definition in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023). Franklin County (MO) has the New Haven and Berger systems. St. Clair County (IL) has the Village of Dupo, Macoupin County (IL) has Liberty Utilities (Midstates), Clinton County (IL) has the City of Salem and Monroe County (IL) has the City of Waterloo. Jersey, Bond and Calhoun counties (IL) have Ameren Illinois. ↩
- Reserve margin table: Spire's stated margin and the margin calculated from the same table are identical in every winter shown. Calculated margin = (capacity - design day) / design day, where capacity is Spire's 'current projected available capacity'. Parentheses are Spire's shortfall sign; the last column is Spire's own figure against design day plus a 5% reserve. Source: the plan's forecast table (see note 10). ↩
- The metro's counties are Bond, Calhoun, Clinton, Jersey, Macoupin, Madison, Monroe and St. Clair counties, Illinois; and Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln, St. Charles, St. Louis and Warren counties and the city of St. Louis, Missouri. The plan does not cover the Illinois counties or Lincoln and Warren counties.
- National and Plains figures that do not bear on the St. Louis system: EIA said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average. Its October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook says prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that there is an elevated likelihood of above-normal seasonal precipitation for much of the Central and Southern Plains, and that the chance of at least a strong El Nino event lasting through January to March 2027 is 80%. EIA's Henry Hub spot price table lists 3.28 and 3.10 dollars per million Btu for the first days of the week beginning October 19, 2026; it is a national price, not evidence of a constraint. ↩
Market and weather sources
Public web sources saved and hashed on October 27, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; the next issue is expected in November 2026.
- A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link
- A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link
- B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link
- B2. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook, GIS data, issued October 15, 2026, saved October 28, 2026. Link
- B3. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days and 1991-2020 normals, saved October 28, 2026. Link
- C1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026. Link
- C3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily. Link
- C2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in Missouri, Illinois, monthly. Link and Link ↩
- D1. Southern Star Central Gas Pipeline, public home page, saved October 27, 2026; Tallgrass Interstate Gas Transmission and Rockies Express Pipeline home pages saved the same day (no static notice list); Energy Transfer's site disallows automated downloads. Link ↩
Sources
- Spire Missouri Inc., 2024 Integrated Resource Plan (final, November 20, 2024), Missouri Public Service Commission filing (manual browser download).
- Spire Missouri Inc., Rules and Regulations, P.S.C. MO. No. 9. Link
- Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.