Minnesota natural gas case study, Minneapolis and the CenterPoint area. October 2026

Minneapolis-area gas capacity: the main utility states a 3.0% reserve margin for 2026-27

CenterPoint told the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (the Commission) in May 2026 that its spare capacity on its coldest planned day in 2026-27 is 3.0%, below the 5% thin-margin line, and the public record shows no approved or scheduled fix.

3.0% marginCenterPoint's 2026-27 reserve margin over its design day (coldest day planned for), whole Minnesota system, May 2026
5.4% marginCenterPoint's forecast 2027-28 margin, which needs added capacity not yet approved or budgeted
83.0% of capacityNorthern Natural Gas winter demand as a share of CenterPoint's total capacity, from one table in CenterPoint's filing
More than half of the metro's residentsShare of the metro's Minnesota residents who live in places named only in CenterPoint's tariff (Census 2025 estimates)

Metro used: the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI metropolitan statistical area as the federal government defined it on July 21, 2023.26 This page covers Minneapolis and the 161 places that only CenterPoint Energy Resources Corp. (CenterPoint) names in its gas tariff. St. Paul and the 79 places that only Northern States Power Company (Xcel) names are on St. Paul and the Xcel area, and Minnesota Energy Resources Corporation (MERC) is covered there too. Places named by more than one tariff are listed on both pages; the page does not say which utility serves them.1 The rating rests on CenterPoint's record for its whole Minnesota system.

Key takeaways

  • The reserve margin (spare capacity as a share of the design day) is a May 29, 2026 figure for CenterPoint's whole Minnesota system, not split by area.2
  • The forecast improvement for 2027-28 depends on added capacity, and the table below shows the margin falling to 2.4% by 2030-31 as the design day grows.3
  • No budget or Commission approval appears for the added capacity, which includes CenterPoint's Northern Lights 2027 election on Northern Natural Gas (NNG).5
  • The Minnesota Department of Commerce (the Department) recommended approving the margin on October 1, 2026; its sufficiency finding is staff advice, not a Commission order.6
  • One pipeline matters most: Northern Natural Gas is the largest single dependency in CenterPoint's exhibit, which makes concentration the one documented risk factor.4
  • No new large gas load appears in the records we checked, although several sources could not be read.7
  • Xcel's and MERC's records are on St. Paul and the Xcel area; this rating rests on CenterPoint's record alone.

Who serves the Minneapolis area?

County (places named) Places named only in CenterPoint's tariff, largest first
Hennepin, MN (41) Minneapolis, Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth, Maple Grove, Eden Prairie, Edina, Minnetonka, St. Louis Park, Richfield, Brooklyn Center, Champlin, Crystal, Golden Valley, New Hope, Hopkins, Rogers, Robbinsdale, Dayton, Corcoran, Mound, Orono, Shorewood, Medina, St. Anthony, Wayzata, Deephaven, Greenfield, Osseo, Excelsior, St. Bonifacius, Long Lake, Maple Plain, Spring Park, Tonka Bay, Medicine Lake, Hanover, Greenwood, Loretto, Village of Minnetonka Beach, Chanhassen
Anoka, MN (14) Coon Rapids, Andover, Fridley, Ramsey, Columbia Heights, Anoka, Oak Grove, St. Francis, Spring Lake Park, Circle Pines, Nowthen, Lexington, Hilltop, Bethel
Dakota, MN (14) Burnsville, Apple Valley, Hastings, Ravenna township, Vermillion township, Marshan township, Nininger township, Hampton township, Douglas township, Hampton, Vermillion, Coates, Miesville, New Trier
Carver, MN (19) Chaska, Chanhassen, Waconia, Victoria, Carver, Norwood Young America, Mayer, Cologne, Laketown township, Dahlgren township, Waconia township, Hollywood township, Camden township, San Francisco township, Benton township, Young America township, New Germany, Hancock township, Shorewood
Wright, MN (19) Otsego, Monticello, Albertville, Annandale, Hanover, Monticello township, Cokato, Silver Creek township, Corinna township, Howard Lake, Maple Lake, Maple Lake township, Southside township, Cokato township, Chatham township, Albion township, Stockholm township, South Haven, Dayton
Scott, MN (9) Savage, Belle Plaine, Jordan, New Prague, Cedar Lake township, Helena township, Sand Creek township, Belle Plaine township, St. Lawrence township
Sherburne, MN (2) Elk River, Livonia township
Le Sueur, MN (14) Le Sueur, Montgomery, New Prague, Le Center, Lanesburgh township, Waterville, Kasota township, Lexington township, Kasota, Montgomery township, Waterville township, Tyrone township, Ottawa township, Mankato
Isanti, MN (8) Cambridge, Cambridge township, Athens township, Braham, Springvale township, Stanchfield township, Dalbo township, St. Francis
Mille Lacs, MN (15) Milaca, Borgholm township, Milaca township, Milo township, Kathio township, South Harbor township, Onamia, Isle, East Side township, Onamia township, Foreston, Isle Harbor township, Wahkon, Pease, Bradbury township
Ramsey, MN (2) St. Anthony, Spring Lake Park
Chisago, MN (1) Fish Lake township
Washington, MN (3) Lake St. Croix Beach, St. Marys Point, Hastings

Places named only in CenterPoint's tariff, by county, for the metro's 13 Minnesota counties. A name on the list does not say which part of the place is served.28

Minneapolis, the largest of these places, is named only by CenterPoint's tariff.9 Xcel's own information sheet marks Minneapolis as electricity only.10 22 places are named by none of the three tariffs.8 The two Wisconsin counties are not covered by the Minnesota tariffs, and we did not read any record of the Wisconsin utilities.11

Served by more than one gas utility; which one depends on the address.

Some places are named by more than one gas tariff, so confirm which utility serves your address. That is 63 entries in the Census place list, and a place that crosses a county line counts once for each county.8 The tariffs list places, not streets, and Xcel's tariff also names whole counties. The table shows the twelve largest of the 63 places named by two or three tariffs.29

Place County Tariffs that name it
Woodbury Washington CenterPoint and Xcel
Lakeville Dakota CenterPoint and MERC
Blaine Anoka CenterPoint and Xcel
Eagan Dakota CenterPoint and Xcel and MERC
Shakopee Scott CenterPoint and Xcel
Cottage Grove Washington CenterPoint and Xcel and MERC
Rosemount Dakota CenterPoint and Xcel and MERC
Oakdale Washington CenterPoint and Xcel
Prior Lake Scott CenterPoint and MERC
Farmington Dakota Xcel and MERC
Lino Lakes Anoka CenterPoint and Xcel
White Bear Lake Ramsey CenterPoint and Xcel

The twelve largest places named by two or three tariffs. Xcel's sheets are effective 2014; MERC's are Sheets 2.00 and 2.01. A name on a list does not say which part of the place is served.12

The other 51 entries are listed in the notes.13

Has Minneapolis had gas supply problems since 2020?

The CenterPoint records we checked describe no supply event in the last five heating seasons.14 The Department's October 2026 comments concern CenterPoint's 2026-27 reserve margin and design day, not an event.6 Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 came before that window. We did not check any federal or state event report or pipeline critical-notice archive for the metro.14

How much spare gas capacity does Minneapolis have on the coldest day?

Pipelines supplying the Minneapolis and the CenterPoint area N Viking Gas Transmission Viking Gas Transmission Great Lakes Gas Transmission Great Lakes Gas Transmission Great Lakes Gas Transmission Great Lakes Gas Transmission Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Northern Natural Gas Viking Gas Transmission Viking Gas Transmission Waterville Waterville Minneapolis Minneapolis Dakota County Dakota County Hennepin Co. Hennepin Co. Isanti Co. Isanti Co. Mille Lacs Co. Mille Lacs Co. Scott Co. Scott Co. Sherburne Co. Sherburne Co. St. Croix County St. Croix County Wright County Wright County Rochester Rochester Duluth Duluth Lakeville Lakeville Blaine Blaine Eau Claire Eau Claire La Crosse La Crosse Mankato Mankato Oakdale Oakdale I-94 I-94 I-90 I-90 I-35 US-53 Aitkin County Aitkin County Pipelines supplying the Minneapolis and the CenterPoint area Other gas pipelines Highways Minneapolis and the CenterPoint area (15 counties) County lines Cities and towns Underground gas storage field named on this page
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving Minneapolis and the CenterPoint area. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data; facility locations: EIA Atlas underground storage layer (2020). Counties, places, state outline and population: U.S. Census Bureau. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

The margin is thin: CenterPoint's net supply of 1,584,790 dekatherms per day (a dekatherm is a unit of gas energy) exceeds its calculated design day of 1,539,000 by 45,790, or 3.0%.2 CenterPoint also holds a physical reserve of 36,000 dekatherms. If that reserve is treated as a requirement, net supply less total requirements is 9,790, or 0.62% by our calculation, and the Department's own table shows 2.98%.4 The Department's October 1, 2026 comments conclude CenterPoint has sufficient capacity to ensure firm reliability on a peak day and recommend approving the margin; they are staff conclusions, not Commission findings.6 The table sets the margin CenterPoint states beside one recomputed from its capacity and design day figures.27

Winter Total capacity, dekatherms per day Design day, dekatherms per day Margin CenterPoint states Margin recomputed from its figures
2026-27 1,584,790 1,539,000 3.0% 2.98%
2027-28 1,637,790 1,554,000 5.4% 5.39%
2028-29 1,637,790 1,569,000 4.4% 4.38%
2029-30 1,637,790 1,585,000 3.3% 3.33%
2030-31 1,637,790 1,600,000 2.4% 2.36%

CenterPoint's forecast reserve margin for its whole Minnesota system, as filed on May 29, 2026. The first row, labeled 2027 in the filing, is the 2026-27 heating season. Source: CenterPoint's design day filing.3

The forecast margin rises in 2027-28 because listed capacity grows: transportation is 1,343,790 dekatherms per day against 1,308,790 in 2026-27, and LNG (liquefied natural gas stored for the coldest days) is 90,000 against 72,000.15 CenterPoint's exhibit shows two heavy dependencies, and we worked out both shares from the same table. Peak-shaving capacity (LNG, propane and storage) of 276,000 dekatherms per day is 17.4% of total capacity, and Northern Natural Gas winter demand of 1,315,096 is 83.0% of the same 1,584,790 total.4

What is driving new natural gas demand?

We found no new large gas load in the records we checked, although several sources could not be read. CenterPoint's planned design day has risen every year since 2017-18 except 2026-27, when it fell by 5,100 dekatherms per day (-0.3%).6 We checked EIA's September 2026 generator inventory (the EIA-860M Planned sheet) and found no planned natural gas-fired generator in the metro's 15 counties; it lists only 8 planned rows there, none natural gas-fired.7 We also searched Federal Register notices of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission since January 1, 2025 that name a metro county with a pipeline docket and found none.16 Data centers: As of October 28, 2026, the official records we searched show no gas-fired plant, pipeline lateral or special gas contract serving a data center on CenterPoint's system.17 One electric item is separate: on May 18, 2026 the Commission approved safeguards for how Xcel Energy may serve very large electricity customers, which concerns electric service, not CenterPoint's gas system.18 Nearby: EIA's inventory lists 3 natural gas-fired planned rows elsewhere in Minnesota, not in the metro's 15 counties; this page does not tie them to CenterPoint's system.7

Are upgrades arriving in time?

Not yet, on the public record: the added capacity behind the 2027-28 forecast depends on CenterPoint's Northern Lights 2027 election on Northern Natural Gas.5 CenterPoint said the election will be included in rate base, with further discussion in its 2026 rate case, and the size of the election is excised as a trade secret. No budget or Commission approval for it appears in the public text. The 2026-27 margin comes before that added capacity.2

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

The public record we read doesn't show CenterPoint's order of curtailment (the order in which gas service is cut back) or its penalties, because we did not read the tariff's interruption terms.19

Winter and market context

Nationwide. On October 15, 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put the highest odds of warmer than normal conditions over the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, among other areas.B1 EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook says prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.A2 EIA expects U.S. inventories to enter winter above the five-year average.A1 Other national figures, on storage, exports and spot prices, are in the notes.30 Around the metro. The metro spans Minnesota and Wisconsin, both in EIA's Midwest storage region, where EIA lists working gas at 1,065 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 16, 2026; we did not read the five-year comparison EIA states.C1 EIA's citygate tables (prices where pipelines deliver gas to a local utility) list 5.43 dollars per thousand cubic feet for Minnesota and 5.22 for Wisconsin for July 2026, the latest month in the saved tables.C2 Commodity prices measure cost, not delivery capacity, so they are never evidence of a constraint.C3 Northern Natural Gas's saved critical notices page shows none, but its list loads dynamically, and the Viking and Great Lakes posting hosts blocked automated downloads, so we could not confirm whether recent winter or critical notices have been posted for the pipelines serving the metro.D1 The next capture is the early December winter refresh.

Winter weather

The last three winters were all milder than the 1991-2020 normal at the airport weather station in the table below, measured in heating degree days (how far each day's average temperature fell below 65 degrees Fahrenheit).20

Station 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26
Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport 80.5% of normal 95.0% of normal 94.5% of normal

Winter heating degree days, November to March, as a share of the 1991-2020 normal (NOAA ACIS; we worked out the shares).21

NOAA's outlook issued October 15, 2026 leans above normal for Minneapolis in both November 2026 to January 2027 and December 2026 to February 2027, and it is not a forecast of specific days or of an outage.22

Policy context

Minnesota Statutes 216H.02 states a goal to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors by at least 50 percent by 2030 and to net zero by 2050, compared with 2005; it is in effect as published by the Revisor of Statutes on October 27, 2026.P1 Section 216B.2427, enacted in 2021, provides that a natural gas utility may file an innovation plan with the commission.P2

What is the outlook for Minneapolis and the CenterPoint area through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Minneapolis and the CenterPoint area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): CenterPoint's own filing states a 2026-27 reserve margin below the 5% thin-margin line, and the public record shows no approved or scheduled fix, which sets the base level at Elevated.2 Documented risk factors: concentration, because the Northern Natural Gas share above exceeds the 10% test.4 One factor alone leaves the level at Elevated, so that concentration is also a trigger; a second documented factor or another trigger would change the assessment. Expiring supply was not tested, because CenterPoint's Northern Natural Gas contract terms are excised as a trade secret.19 Peak-shaving capacity is a group of LNG, propane and storage facilities, not one source, so it is not a concentration factor.23 Three developments would change the assessment: CenterPoint's added capacity, including Northern Lights 2027, shown with a budget or Commission approval, or a different margin in its November 2026 compliance filing; a second documented risk factor, such as a dated supply event or an expiring contract; or the Commission's action on CenterPoint's entitlement petition.5

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's decision on Northern Natural Gas's proposal to abandon in place about 131 miles of its A and J lines in Iowa and Minnesota is a further trigger for this page and not a risk factor.25 This rating cannot be split by area. CenterPoint's tariff names the most people in the metro but not all of them. The Wisconsin counties, MERC and several smaller systems are not covered, and we did not read the Department's findings on Xcel's design day. Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What's new (as of October 28, 2026)

On October 1, 2026, the Department recommended that the Commission approve CenterPoint's proposed 2026-27 reserve margin. On October 8, 2026, federal staff issued the environmental assessment for Northern Natural Gas's V2F and NL27 projects, which would add 79,303 dekatherms per day of firm service in Minnesota. The notice describes added pipeline capacity rather than new gas load, gives no in-service date and names no data center.24

What should Minneapolis-area facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Which utility and rate. Confirm whether each site is served by CenterPoint, Xcel, MERC, another utility or a municipal system, and which rate class it is on, because several suburbs, including Woodbury, Lakeville, Blaine, Eagan and Shakopee, are named by more than one tariff.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December, because the thin margin above leaves little room on CenterPoint's coldest planned day.
  • Upcoming proceedings. Track CenterPoint's November 2026 compliance filing, its 2026 rate case and the Commission's action on its entitlement petition. Discovery Energy reviews service elections, interruption terms and regulatory proceedings for organizations across the U.S. and Canada, so capacity changes are understood before they reach the bill. [Schedule a review]

Frequently asked questions

Will Minneapolis businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The records we read do not show a shortage, and this page makes no prediction about outages. See 'How much spare gas capacity does Minneapolis have on the coldest day?' for CenterPoint's margin and the Department's conclusion.

Is there spare gas capacity in the Minneapolis area on the coldest day?

Thin, on CenterPoint's own figures for its whole Minnesota system. See 'How much spare gas capacity does Minneapolis have on the coldest day?' for the figures and the 2027-28 forecast.

Which gas utility serves my site in the Minneapolis area?

CenterPoint's tariff names Minneapolis and most of Hennepin County, but some places, including Woodbury, Lakeville, Blaine, Eagan and Shakopee, are named by more than one tariff, so confirm the utility for each address. See 'Who serves the Minneapolis area?'

What should Minneapolis-area facilities check now?

Confirm the utility and rate class for each site, check tariffs and charges through a utility audit, review curtailment and backup-fuel plans before December, and track the Commission's dockets. See 'What should Minneapolis-area facilities check now?'

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Understand your capacity exposure

Schedule a review

Notes

  1. Territory by tariff, written from the three tariffs below against the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 city and township estimates for the 13 Minnesota counties (331 entries, summing to the county totals). A name on a tariff list means the utility lists the place, not that it serves all of it; spelling and label differences were matched. The county tables on this page are drawn from that file. A place that crosses a county line is listed once for each county, with that county's part of its population. The share of the metro's Minnesota residents who live in places named only in CenterPoint's tariff is 55.1% (Census 2025 estimates).
  2. CenterPoint, d/b/a CenterPoint Energy Minnesota Gas, Design Day filing (public version, May 29, 2026), Docket G008/M-26-72, Design Day Estimate table and Section A, PDF 4. A utility filing; figures are for CenterPoint's whole Minnesota system. ↩
  3. CenterPoint, d/b/a CenterPoint Energy Minnesota Gas, Design Day filing (public version, May 29, 2026), Docket G008/M-26-72, MN Gas Reserve Margin Forecast 2027-2031, PDF 6. A utility filing; figures are for CenterPoint's whole Minnesota system. The column labeled 2027 matches the 2026-27 heating season. ↩
  4. Calculations: CenterPoint margin = (capacity - design day) / design day; peak-shaving share = 276,000 / 1,584,790 and Northern Natural Gas share = 1,315,096 / 1,584,790, both from Exhibit B3 of the May 29, 2026 filing. A share calculated from two figures in one exhibit table counts for risk factor F1 under Scale v2.3 Section 4; the peak-shaving line is a group of LNG, propane and storage facilities, not a single source, so it is not counted. Both figures behind the 83.0% Northern Natural Gas share come from one exhibit table. ↩
  5. CenterPoint, Request for Change in Demand Units (public version, petition of April 1, 2026), Docket G008/M-26-72, Future Demand Changes, PDF 7. A utility filing; the size of the Northern Lights 2027 award is excised as a trade secret. ↩
  6. Minnesota Department of Commerce, comments of October 1, 2026, Docket G008/M-26-72, Table 3 and reserve margin discussion (PDF 11), Table 1 (PDF 3), Sections A.1 and C (PDF 15 and 16). The Department's statements are staff conclusions and recommendations, not Commission findings. ↩
  7. Lines computed from EIA-860M (September 2026) and the Federal Register search of FERC notices, by county; the EIA-860M file is. The inventory is preliminary and does not list data centers or units not yet reported; absence from it is not proof that none is planned. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator queue page loads its list dynamically and was not read. EIA's inventory lists 3 natural gas-fired planned rows anywhere in Minnesota. ↩
  8. Territory by tariff, written from the three tariffs below against the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 city and township estimates for the 13 Minnesota counties (331 entries, summing to the county totals). A name on a tariff list means the utility lists the place, not that it serves all of it; spelling and label differences were matched. The county tables on this page are drawn from that file. A place that crosses a county line is listed once for each county, with that county's part of its population. ↩
  9. CenterPoint Energy Minnesota Gas, Minnesota Rates & Rights Tariff Book (2026 edition as posted), Section III Index of Service Area, Minnesota Communities We Serve, Pages 1 and 1.a, effective April 15, 2025, PDF 7. A utility tariff; a name on the list does not say which part of the place is served. ↩
  10. Northern States Power Company (Xcel Energy), Minnesota Gas Rate Book MPUC No. 2, Section 3, Index of Company's Service Area, Sheets 3-1 to 3-3, effective November 1, 2014 (Docket G002/M-14-583), PDF 1 and 5; and Xcel Energy's information sheet, Minnesota Communities Served by Xcel Energy (letter codes E, G, EG), PDF 3 and 4. A utility tariff and information sheet; the sheets are 2014 vintage and the tariff names whole counties as well as places. ↩
  11. County utility lists are Discovery Energy's EIA-176 county lists, written into. They show where a utility reports operations, not tariff territory, and they differ from the filings in one place: Xcel's Sibley and Wescott plants are in Dakota County by the Census Bureau's 2020 place by county file, where the lists do not name Xcel. County populations are the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 county estimates. ↩
  12. Territory by tariff, written from the three tariffs below against the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 city and township estimates for the 13 Minnesota counties (331 entries, summing to the county totals). A name on a tariff list means the utility lists the place, not that it serves all of it; spelling and label differences were matched. The county tables on this page are drawn from that file. A place that crosses a county line is listed once for each county, with that county's part of its population. ↩
  13. Territory by tariff, written from the three tariffs below against the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 city and township estimates for the 13 Minnesota counties (331 entries, summing to the county totals). A name on a tariff list means the utility lists the place, not that it serves all of it; spelling and label differences were matched. The county tables on this page are drawn from that file. A place that crosses a county line is listed once for each county, with that county's part of its population. The other 51 entries are: Afton, Baldwin, Becker, Becker township, Big Lake, Big Lake township, Blaine, Buffalo, Buffalo township, Centerville, Clearwater, Clearwater township, Cleveland, Cleveland township, Columbus, Credit River, Denmark township, East Bethel, Empire, Ham Lake, Independence, Isanti, Isanti township, Jackson township, Lake Elmo, Lakeland, Lakeland Shores, Louisville township, Middleville township, Minnetrista, Mounds View, New Market township, North Branch, North Branch township, Orrock township, Princeton, Princeton township, Randolph, Randolph township, Rockford, Rockford township, St. Michael, Victor township, West Lakeland township, White Bear Lake, Woodland, Woodland township, Zimmerman. ↩
  14. Supply-event search and pipeline notice counts not fully established: no federal or state event report or pipeline critical-notice archive was read for the metro; the Northern Natural Gas notice list loads dynamically and the Viking and Great Lakes hosts blocked automated downloads. Winter Storm Uri (February 2021) is outside the five-heating-season window for risk factor F3. ↩
  15. CenterPoint, d/b/a CenterPoint Energy Minnesota Gas, Design Day filing (public version, May 29, 2026), Docket G008/M-26-72, MN Gas Reserve Margin Forecast 2027-2031, PDF 6. A utility filing; figures are for CenterPoint's whole Minnesota system. The column labeled 2027 matches the 2026-27 heating season. ↩
  16. New-load search partly established: the EIA-860M sheet and the Federal Register FERC search were read; Minnesota Pollution Control Agency air permits, Commission siting dockets and utility large-load filings for data centers, and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator queue, were not read because those hosts block automated downloads or need an interactive export; they would need a manual download. ↩
  17. Discovery Energy data center scan log, October 28, 2026; a search that finds nothing does not prove that no project exists. ↩
  18. Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (news release), PUC strengthens consumer protections as state prepares for new very large electricity customers, Docket 25-289 (2026-05-18), News release, first paragraph. ↩
  19. Not established, and left out of the page: who pays (cost allocation among customer classes); tariff interruption priorities and penalties for any utility; delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (next capture about March 1, 2027); the Department's comments on Xcel's entitlement petition and the update letters on Xcel's peaking plants; the Department's findings on Xcel's design day; MERC's November 2026 update; and any record for Greater Minnesota Gas, Circle Pines Utilities, Northwest Natural Gas and the Wisconsin utilities. ↩
  20. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed. [W5-WX-HDD-minneapolis_st_paul-2023-24, W5-WX-HDD-minneapolis_st_paul-2024-25, W5-WX-HDD-minneapolis_st_paul-2025-26]. ↩
  21. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed. [W5-WX-HDD-minneapolis_st_paul-2023-24, W5-WX-HDD-minneapolis_st_paul-2024-25, W5-WX-HDD-minneapolis_st_paul-2025-26]. ↩
  22. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed. []. The probabilities for Minneapolis are 50.0% above normal, 33.3% near normal and 16.7% below normal for both November 2026 to January 2027 and December 2026 to February 2027; these are NOAA's probabilities for a three-month average temperature. ↩
  23. CenterPoint, d/b/a CenterPoint Energy Minnesota Gas, Design Day filing (public version, May 29, 2026), Docket G008/M-26-72, Exhibit B3, PDF 13. A utility filing; figures are for CenterPoint's whole Minnesota system. ↩
  24. Minnesota Department of Commerce, Division of Energy Resources, PUBLIC Comments (October 1, 2026), Docket G008/M-26-72 (header also prints G002), Section C (PDF 16), PDF page 16; Minnesota Department of Commerce, Division of Energy Resources, PUBLIC Comments (October 1, 2026), Docket G008/M-26-72 (header also prints G002), Table 3 (PDF 11), PDF page 11; Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (Federal Register notice), Northern Natural Gas Company; Notice of Availability of the Environmental Assessment (V2F and NL27 projects), CP26-130-000 (2026-10-08), Federal Register notice 2026-20580, first paragraph. ↩
  25. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (Federal Register notice), Northern Natural Gas Company; Notice of Application and Establishing Intervention Deadline (V2F and NL27 projects), CP26-130-000 (2026-03-19), Federal Register notice 2026-05429, project description. The proposal to abandon about 131 miles of the A and J lines is in docket CP26-130. ↩
  26. Metro definition: the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, metropolitan statistical area as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023), the Office of Management and Budget list of metropolitan areas. The counties named on this page are those the bulletin lists for the metro. The federal definition is Office of Management and Budget Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023 revision). The counties are Anoka, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Hennepin, Isanti, Le Sueur, Mille Lacs, Ramsey, Scott, Sherburne, Washington and Wright counties, Minnesota; and Pierce and St. Croix counties, Wisconsin.
  27. Margin recomputed from CenterPoint's figures: (total capacity - design day) / design day. The first row, labeled 2027 in the filing, matches the 2026-27 heating season. Source: CenterPoint's design day filing, Docket G008/M-26-72, MN Gas Reserve Margin Forecast 2027-2031, PDF 6. ↩
  28. Places named only by CenterPoint's Minnesota Communities We Serve list (Section III, effective April 15, 2025) among the metro's 13 Minnesota counties, with Census Vintage 2025 populations. Xcel's tariff also names whole counties. ↩
  29. The twelve largest of the 63 places named by two or three tariffs, with Census Vintage 2025 population estimates; the tariffs are CenterPoint Section III, Xcel Section 3 and MERC Sheets 2.00 and 2.01. Xcel's sheets are effective 2014. ↩
  30. National figures, as of October 2026: EIA said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average (source A1). NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that the probability of at least a strong El Nino event continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%, and that the highest odds of warmer than normal conditions are over Southeast Alaska, the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes (source B1). EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook indicator table lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15, 18 and 19 billion cubic feet per day for 2025, 2026 and 2027 (source A2). EIA's Henry Hub (the U.S. benchmark) spot price table lists 3.28 and 3.10 dollars per million Btu for the first days of the week of October 19, 2026 (source C3). ↩

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 27, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; the next issue is expected in November 2026.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
  2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
  3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩
  4. B2. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook, GIS data, issued October 15, 2026, saved October 28, 2026. Link
  5. B3. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days and 1991-2020 normals, saved October 28, 2026. Link
  6. C1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026. Link ↩
  7. C2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in Minnesota and in Wisconsin, monthly. Link and Link ↩
  8. C3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily. Link ↩
  9. D1. Northern Natural Gas, Informational Postings, Notices, Critical, saved October 27, 2026; the notice list loads dynamically and none is in the static page. Link ↩

Policy sources

Official sources saved and hashed on October 27, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes.

  1. P1. Minnesota Office of the Revisor of Statutes, Minnesota Statutes 216H.02, Greenhouse gas emissions control, saved October 27, 2026. Link ↩
  2. P2. Minnesota Office of the Revisor of Statutes, Minnesota Statutes 216B.2427, Natural gas utility innovation plans, saved October 27, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

  1. Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, Docket G008/M-26-72, CenterPoint, change in demand entitlement, 2026-2027 (public filings, April to October 2026). Link
  2. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.