Michigan natural gas case study, Lansing area. October 2026

Lansing gas capacity: no spare supply on coldest day; two contracts end by 2028

On the coldest day Consumers Energy plans for, January 31, 2027, its supply (3,596 million cubic feet per day) equals its load: a 0% margin, whole Michigan system. Two winter pipeline contracts end in October 2027 and 2028.

0% marginSupply minus load, Consumers Energy's January 31, 2027 design day, both 3,596 MMcf/day (million cubic feet); our calculation
61% storage and linepackShare of that day's supply, whole system; linepack is gas held in pipelines
200,000 dth/dayConsumers Energy's two winter firm pipeline contracts (dth: dekatherms), ending October 2027 and October 2028
103 MMcf/dayLansing Board of Water & Light (BW&L) load in the design day plan; 2.9% of total, our calculation

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated .

Metro used: the Lansing-East Lansing, MI metropolitan statistical area, as defined by the federal government in July 2023.1 Consumers Energy's capacity figures below are for its whole Michigan system, because they cannot be split out for the metro.4

Key takeaways

  • The figures come from Consumers Energy's December 2025 filing with the Michigan Public Service Commission (the Commission), not from a Lansing-only record.7
  • Storage is split among 15 reservoirs, projected to supply up to 65% of total customer peak day requirements.11 The storage share above is the whole storage system.10
  • Consumers Energy plans its design day around weather weighted 32% Lansing and 68% Detroit Metro.12
  • Consumers Energy assumed both winter contracts will be renewed, but the passage that says so states no renewal agreement.13
  • The Commission approved a cost recovery settlement on October 1, 2026.14 Staff's witness called the peak day plan reasonable and prudent.15 Neither makes a capacity finding.16
  • The one planned gas-fired generator listed gives no gas volume or service filing, so we do not treat it as new load.17
  • The ANR, Northern Border and Eaton Rapids winter notices read show no restriction or storage limit naming Michigan or Lansing.19 The record doesn't show ANR winters before 2025-26.20

Who serves the Lansing area?

Consumers Energy serves most of the Lansing area, including Lansing, East Lansing, DeWitt, St. Johns, Charlotte and Eaton Rapids.2 Its tariff names places in all three counties but does not say how much of each county it serves.21 DTE Gas serves Essex Township in Clinton County.3 The record does not show how the two utilities overlap in Clinton County, so no places there are assigned to either one.22

How much spare gas capacity does the Lansing area have on the coldest day?

On Consumers Energy's own coldest-day plan, supply equals the load requirement, so it shows no spare supply and not a shortfall.10

Pipelines supplying the Lansing-East Lansing area N Panhandle Eastern Panhandle Eastern Panhandle Eastern Panhandle Eastern ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline Panhandle Eastern Panhandle Eastern ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline T B Simon Power Plant T B Simon Power Plant Eaton Rapids Eaton Rapids Lansing Lansing Clinton County Clinton County Eaton County Eaton County Ingham County Ingham County Grand Rapids Grand Rapids Ann Arbor Ann Arbor Livonia Livonia Flint Flint Wyoming Wyoming Kalamazoo Kalamazoo Novi Novi Pontiac Pontiac Dearborn Heights Dearborn Heights Battle Creek Battle Creek Portage Portage Saginaw Saginaw Midland Midland Bay City Bay City Jackson Jackson I-96 I-96 I-94 I-94 I-69 I-69 I-75 I-75 US-131 US-131 US-127 US-127 US-23 US-23 US-10 I-275 MI 6 Barry County Barry County Calhoun County Calhoun County Genesee Co. Genesee Co. Gratiot County Gratiot County Ionia County Ionia County Jackson County Jackson County Kalamazoo County Kalamazoo County Kent County Kent County Lenawee County Lenawee County Livingston Co. Livingston Co. Montcalm County Montcalm County Newaygo County Newaygo County Oakland Co. Oakland Co. Saginaw County Saginaw County Tuscola County Tuscola County Pipelines supplying the Lansing-East Lansing area Other gas pipelines Highways Lansing-East Lansing metro area (3 counties) County lines Cities and towns Gas-fired power plant named on this page Underground gas storage field named on this page
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving Lansing-East Lansing. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data; facility locations: EIA Form EIA-860 (2025); EIA Atlas underground storage layer (2020). Counties, places, state outline and population: U.S. Census Bureau. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

System supply. For January 31, 2027, Consumers Energy's design day exhibit lists a load requirement of 3,596 MMcf per day at 80 degree days, 3,059 at 65 and 2,522 at 50.23 Degree days measure how cold a day is, and more degree days means colder weather. Total supply equals the load requirement in each case.24 That gives a 0% margin by our calculation.69 The exhibit states storage and linepack supply at 61% of the 80-degree-day supply, and 65% and 58% for the other two.25 Pipeline contracts. Consumers Energy said it holds the contracts in the table below, for its whole Michigan system.26 It also said producers, marketers and generating facilities hold the majority of the firm transportation with a primary delivery point (the city gate, where the pipeline hands gas to the utility) at Consumers Energy.27 On the colder-than-normal design day, its gas cost recovery supply requirement is approximately 598 MMcf per day more than the firm transportation it has in place.28 It may buy that difference as incremental firm transportation or as gas delivered at the city gate.29

Pipeline Volume (dth per day) Term Share of the two winter contracts
Trunkline (Fayetteville), winter 100,000 November 1, 2024 to October 31, 2027 50%
Panhandle (Rover/Falcon) 100,000 April 1, 2024 to October 31, 2028 50%
Trunkline (REX/Douglas), summer only 50,000 April 1, 2025 to October 31, 2027 summer only, not a winter contract

Pipeline contracts Consumers Energy listed in December 2025, for its whole Michigan system.68 By our calculation each 100,000 dth contract is 2.6% of the January 31, 2027 design day load, below the 10% design day threshold.30 Under the outlook scale, each contract counts as a key contract because it is 50% of the firm interstate capacity listed.31 Lansing-specific figures. The one Lansing-specific load named is BW&L's power plants, planned at 103 MMcf per day on a design day, 2.9% of the system total by our calculation.9 Consumers Energy's design day exhibit lists it within the end-user line.32 The record gives no Lansing-only design day, no measure of how heavily local facilities are loaded and no capacity limit at any local station.

What is driving new natural gas demand?

No large gas load, gas-fired generation project or data center with a service date was found in these records for the metro. The filing names no new large load in Clinton, Eaton or Ingham County by customer and service date. The air permit, local government and state economic development records were not reviewed for this page.38 EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists one planned natural gas-fired generator in the three counties, the T B Simon Power Plant in Ingham County (15.0 MW, planned year 2028).18 It gives no gas volume or service filing for it.33 EIA's page lists September 2026 as its latest generator inventory.34 The copy saved October 28, 2026 still lists the plant.59 The Midcontinent Independent System Operator's public interconnection queue, saved October 27, 2026, lists 18 entries in the three counties.35 None has a gas fuel type or a combustion turbine, combined cycle or engine facility type.36 The copy saved October 28, 2026 lists no gas-fueled project in the three counties.60 A search of Federal Register FERC notices since January 2025 for each county returned none.37 Data centers: As of October 28, 2026, we found no new gas load in the metro. BW&L said on November 5, 2025 that Deep Green had announced plans for a 24 MW data center in downtown Lansing, and said on April 6, 2026 that Deep Green had withdrawn its proposals to buy and rezone the property.61 The releases do not mention a gas supply, so this concerns electricity only, not gas. Nearby: Consumers Energy's 2026 electric resource plan summary proposes over 450 MW of gas generation at Karn near Bay City and over 900 MW at Thetford in Genesee County, both for service in 2031.62 Both are in other counties, and no record we read ties them to gas service in this metro.

Are supply arrangements secured through the horizon?

Both winter contracts end within the period this page looks at, through 2029, on the dates in the table above, and the record read states no renewal agreement and no replacement. Consumers Energy said it used its existing contract terms through term expiry and assumed the contracts are renewed going forward.13 The record read names no capacity project for the Lansing area, so there is no upgrade to compare with a date when more capacity is needed.

Winter and market context

National layer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 outlook gives the Great Lakes among the highest odds of warmer than normal conditions.39 EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook says prolonged cold could increase U.S. natural gas withdrawals beyond its forecast.41 Regional layer. Michigan is in EIA's Midwest storage region, whose working gas EIA's weekly table, released October 22, 2026, lists at 1,065 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 16, 2026.43 The five-year comparison EIA states in its weekly report was not read. EIA's Michigan citygate price table lists 3.83 dollars per thousand cubic feet for July 2026, the latest month saved.44 The table saved again on October 27, 2026 still shows July 2026 as its latest numeric month.46 This is a commodity price, and commodity prices are not evidence of a delivery constraint.

The ANR Pipeline Company, Northern Border Pipeline Company and Eaton Rapids Gas Storage System notices we read name no Michigan delivery point, Consumers Energy or Lansing, and none restricts storage withdrawals or service; the Eaton Rapids notices do not say whether it supplies Consumers Energy.50 Consumers Energy's list of firm contracts has Trunkline and Panhandle contracts and no ANR contract, so ANR's winter 2025-26 notices do not establish a winter event for Lansing.8 Critical notices (a category of pipeline notice) for Trunkline, Panhandle, Great Lakes and Vector could not be read, so no winter notice count could be made for them.51

Winter weather and NOAA's outlook

Winters in the Lansing area were milder than normal in 2023-24 and 2024-25 and close to normal in 2025-26, at 85%, 91% and 101% of the 1991-2020 normal in heating degree days from November to March at the Lansing Capital City Airport weather station.63 NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook issued October 15, 2026 leans toward warmer than normal weather for the Lansing area for November 2026 to January 2027 and December 2026 to February 2027.64 These are probabilities for a three-month average, not a forecast of specific days, and do not rule out cold days.

Policy context

These Michigan laws set no gas demand figure, so they do not set the outlook level.52 Michigan's Public Act 235 of 2023, effective February 27, 2024, sets a clean energy standard for electric providers of at least 80% in 2035 through 2039 and 100% from 2040.53 Its definition of a clean energy system includes a natural gas-fueled facility that uses carbon capture and storage that is at least 90% effective.54 Public Act 207 of 2024, approved January 17, 2025, and Public Act 181 of 2024 provide exemptions, from January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2050 and subject to conditions in the acts, for the sale and the storage, use or consumption of data center equipment by the owner or operator of a qualified data center.55

What is the outlook for Lansing-area gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Lansing-area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): Consumers Energy's own January 2027 design day plan shows supply equal to the load requirement, below the 5% thin-margin threshold, for its whole Michigan system, with no approved or scheduled fix in the record read.25 Documented risk factors: expiring supply (F2), because the Trunkline winter contract and the Panhandle contract are each 50% of the winter firm contracts listed.8 Both end within the horizon, on the dates above, and have no decided replacement.6 A single documented factor does not raise the level; a second one would change the assessment, as the developments below show. Three developments would change the assessment: Consumers Energy's next gas cost recovery plan (for the 12 months ending March 2028), with its updated design day balance and any supply above requirements; a renewal, replacement or non-renewal of either winter contract, or a second documented factor such as a dated supply event or a single source above 10% of the design day; and any Lansing-area facility limit or new large gas load filed with the Commission.56 Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What's new (as of October 28, 2026)

On October 15, 2026 the Commission approved a $139,176,000 natural gas rate increase for Consumers Energy, against the $240 million requested.65 It disallowed storage pipeline replacement costs as premature and more than $7.9 million for transmission pipeline integrity work.66 On October 19, 2026 Consumers Energy filed notice of another gas rate case, expected in December.67

What should Lansing-area facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Which utility and rate. Confirm whether each site is served by Consumers Energy or DTE Gas and which rate class it is on, because the filings read do not show which serves which.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Upcoming proceedings. Track Consumers Energy's next gas cost recovery plan before the Commission, and any notice about its Trunkline and Panhandle contracts.

Frequently asked questions

Will Lansing businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The record read does not show a shortage; see 'How much spare gas capacity does the Lansing area have on the coldest day?' for Consumers Energy's plan.25 The Commission's order read makes no capacity finding, and this page makes no prediction about outages.14

Is there spare gas capacity in the Lansing area on the coldest day?

Not on Consumers Energy's plan, which balances supply to requirements and gives no Lansing-specific supply or margin. See 'How much spare gas capacity does the Lansing area have on the coldest day?'

Which gas pipeline contracts does Consumers Energy hold, and when do they end?

It holds two winter firm contracts, with Trunkline and Panhandle, and a summer-only Trunkline contract; the table in 'How much spare gas capacity does the Lansing area have on the coldest day?' lists volumes and end dates.8 It said it assumed they are renewed.13

Who supplies gas in the Lansing area?

Mostly Consumers Energy, with DTE Gas also named in Clinton County. See 'Who serves the Lansing area?'22

Is the Lansing BW&L load a new gas load?

No. It is part of Consumers Energy's current end-user line, and the filing names no new large load for the metro.32

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

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Notes

  1. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023. The counties are Clinton, Eaton and Ingham, Michigan. The serving utility is taken from Consumers Energy Company's tariff territory list, which names places in all three counties.
  2. Consumers Energy Rate Book for Natural Gas Service, M.P.S.C. No. 3 - Gas, territory served, PDF 13 and 15. Utility tariff. The tariff lists show places by county and do not give the share of a county served. ↩
  3. DTE Gas Company Rate Book, M.P.S.C. No. 1 - Gas, territory served, PDF 22. The tariff lists show places by county and do not give the share of a county served; DTE Gas's Essex entry in Clinton County is recorded as unclear and no place is assigned. ↩
  4. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony and exhibits, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Exhibit A-33 (ETS-12), page 1 of 3, PDF 216. Utility statement.
  5. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony and exhibits, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Exhibit A-33 (ETS-12), page 1 of 3, PDF 216. Utility statement. Both figures are for Consumers Energy's whole Michigan system.
  6. Consumers Energy, Exhibit A-31 (ETS-10), Summary of Firm Transportation Contracts, effective April 1, 2026, PDF 210, and Salsbury testimony on contract renewal, PDF 169, of the application in Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025). ↩
  7. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony and exhibits, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Exhibit A-33 (ETS-12), page 1 of 3, PDF 216. Utility statement. ↩
  8. Consumers Energy, Exhibit A-31 (ETS-10), Summary of Firm Transportation Contracts, effective April 1, 2026, PDF 210 of the application in Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025). The exhibit is a table; the quotes are its row strings, and the page image was checked against them. The Exhibit A-32 in the same filing is a price forecast. ↩
  9. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy), Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Exhibit A-33 (ETS-12), footnote 2 to the end-user line, PDF 216. Utility statement. ↩
  10. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony and exhibits, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Exhibit A-33 (ETS-12), page 1 of 3, PDF 216. Utility statement. ↩
  11. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Salsbury testimony on storage, PDF 162 and 168. Utility statement. ↩
  12. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), testimony on weather basis, PDF 97. Utility statement. ↩
  13. Consumers Energy, Salsbury testimony on firm transportation contract renewal, PDF 169 of the application in Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025). Utility statement. ↩
  14. Michigan Public Service Commission, Order approving settlement agreement, Case U-21887 (October 1, 2026), PDF 1. A commission order; the settlement's terms were not read for capacity findings. ↩
  15. Direct testimony of Nyrhe U. Royal for Commission Staff, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (July 15, 2026), PDF 17. Staff testimony; it gives no figure. ↩
  16. Michigan Public Service Commission, Order approving settlement agreement, Case U-21887 (October 1, 2026), PDF 1; Direct testimony of Nyrhe U. Royal for Commission Staff (July 15, 2026), PDF 17. A commission order and Staff testimony; the settlement's terms were not read for capacity findings. ↩
  17. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet), filtered to Clinton, Eaton and Ingham counties, Michigan. ↩
  18. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet), filtered to Clinton, Eaton and Ingham counties, Michigan. ↩
  19. ANR Pipeline Company critical notices (posted October 1, 2025 to October 27, 2026) and non-critical notices (from September 24, 2025); Northern Border Pipeline Company critical notices (August 18, 2023 to October 13, 2026) and non-critical notices (from January 19, 2022); Eaton Rapids Gas Storage System critical notices (January 23, 2024 to September 9, 2026) and non-critical notices (October 3, 2023 to October 14, 2026); all on TC eConnects, manual browser downloads, October 27, 2026. Counts and keyword scans. ↩
  20. ANR Pipeline Company, critical notices (451 notices posted October 1, 2025 to October 27, 2026) and non-critical notices (from September 24, 2025) on TC eConnects. Manual browser downloads, October 27, 2026. Counts and keyword scans. ANR's notice export begins in October 2025, so only winter 2025-26 can be counted for ANR. ANR notices posted from October 1, 2025 include no notice posted from November to March that names a Michigan Leg North location or a Michigan delivery point. The full names are ANR Pipeline Company ("ANR") and Northern Border Pipeline Company ("Northern Border"). ANR's notice export begins in October 2025, so winters before 2025-26 are not shown. ↩
  21. Consumers Energy Rate Book for Natural Gas Service, M.P.S.C. No. 3 - Gas, territory served, PDF 13 and 15. Utility tariff. The tariff lists show places by county and do not give the share of a county served. The tariff names East Lansing and Lansing in Ingham County; Charlotte, Bellevue, Kalamo and Eaton Rapids in Eaton County; and DeWitt, Eagle, Bath, Lebanon and St. Johns in Clinton County. ↩
  22. Consumers Energy Rate Book for Natural Gas Service, M.P.S.C. No. 3 - Gas, PDF 13 and 15; DTE Gas Company Rate Book, M.P.S.C. No. 1 - Gas, PDF 22; Consumers Energy Company application with testimony and exhibits, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025). The tariffs show places by county and do not give the share of a county served. ↩
  23. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony and exhibits, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Exhibit A-33 (ETS-12), page 1 of 3, PDF 216. Utility statement. ↩
  24. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony and exhibits, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Exhibit A-33 (ETS-12), page 1 of 3, PDF 216. Utility statement. ↩
  25. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony and exhibits, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Exhibit A-33 (ETS-12), page 1 of 3, PDF 216. Utility statement. ↩
  26. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Salsbury testimony on firm transportation and on Exhibit A-33, PDF 175 and 182. Utility statement. ↩
  27. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Salsbury testimony on firm transportation and on Exhibit A-33, PDF 175 and 182. Utility statement. ↩
  28. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Salsbury testimony on firm transportation and on Exhibit A-33, PDF 175 and 182. Utility statement. ↩
  29. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Salsbury testimony on firm transportation and on Exhibit A-33, PDF 175 and 182. Utility statement. ↩
  30. Consumers Energy, Exhibit A-31 (ETS-10), Summary of Firm Transportation Contracts, effective April 1, 2026, PDF 210 of the application in Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887; the 10% design day threshold and the key-contract test are those of the Discovery Energy outlook scale, version 2.3. Separately, Trunkline's flows were 17% of total deliveries in January to March 2025 in Consumers Energy's testimony (PDF 163), a scheduled-delivery average at its interconnects and not a design day share, so it is not used as a concentration figure. Conversion behind the 2.6% share of the January 31, 2027 design day load: 1.054 MMBtu per Mcf, our calculation. ↩
  31. Consumers Energy, Exhibit A-31 (ETS-10), Summary of Firm Transportation Contracts, effective April 1, 2026, PDF 210 of the application in Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887; the 10% design day threshold and the key-contract test are those of the Discovery Energy outlook scale, version 2.3. Separately, Trunkline's flows were 17% of total deliveries in January to March 2025 in Consumers Energy's testimony (PDF 163), a scheduled-delivery average at its interconnects and not a design day share, so it is not used as a concentration figure. ↩
  32. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy), Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Exhibit A-33 (ETS-12), footnote 2 to the end-user line, PDF 216. Utility statement. ↩
  33. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet), filtered to Clinton, Eaton and Ingham counties, Michigan. ↩
  34. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M page saved October 27, 2026, which lists September 2026 as its latest inventory (next release November 24, 2026). ↩
  35. Midcontinent Independent System Operator, generator interconnection queue, public file (4,010 entries), saved October 27, 2026, filtered to Clinton, Eaton and Ingham counties, Michigan. The queue lists generation, not data center load. ↩
  36. Midcontinent Independent System Operator, generator interconnection queue, public file (4,010 entries), saved October 27, 2026, filtered to Clinton, Eaton and Ingham counties, Michigan. The queue lists generation, not data center load. ↩
  37. Federal Register, FERC notices since January 1, 2025, searched by county with a CP docket number; the search returned no notices. ↩
  38. Follow-up of October 27, 2026: the EIA-860M inventory, the MISO public interconnection queue (Consumers Energy and Lansing Board of Water and Light are in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator footprint) and the Federal Register FERC county search were read and are claimed. Michigan air permits (the state environmental agency's site returned HTTP 403), city and county records, and state economic development filings were not reviewed for this page. News reports are leads only and are not claimed: they describe a downtown Lansing data center proposal with an on-site fuel cell plant that the developer withdrew in April 2026, and a city data center moratorium voted in July 2026; neither was confirmed in an official record. ↩
  39. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026 (Market and weather sources, B1). The same discussion also lists Southeast Alaska and the upper Mississippi Valley with the Great Lakes for the highest odds of warmer than normal conditions, and says the probability of at least a strong El Nino event continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%. ↩
  40. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026 (Market and weather sources, A1). EIA said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter 2% above the previous five-year average.
  41. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026, natural gas storage (Market and weather sources, A2). ↩
  42. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (Market and weather sources, A2), and press release of October 6, 2026, U.S. energy market indicators table (Market and weather sources, A1). The outlook lists U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) gross exports of 15, 18 and 19 billion cubic feet per day for 2025, 2026 and 2027.
  43. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026, Midwest region (Market and weather sources, C1). ↩
  44. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in Michigan, monthly, July 2026 the latest month saved (Market and weather sources, C2). Commodity price, context only. ↩
  45. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily, release of October 21, 2026 (Market and weather sources, C3). Commodity price, context only. EIA's Henry Hub spot table, released October 21, 2026, lists 3.28 and 3.10 dollars per million Btu for the first days reported of the week of October 19, 2026.
  46. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in Michigan, monthly, table saved again on October 27, 2026 (Market and weather sources, C2). Commodity price, context only. ↩
  47. ANR Pipeline Company, critical notice 26306042 (the Michigan Leg South area in Will County, Illinois) and critical notice 26250009 (Michigan Leg North maintenance in Berrien County, Michigan), posted October 1, 2025 to October 27, 2026 on TC eConnects. Manual browser downloads, October 27, 2026. ANR's Michigan Leg South notices place that area in Will County, Illinois.
  48. Northern Border Pipeline Company, critical notices (335 notices, August 18, 2023 to October 13, 2026) and non-critical notices (487 notices, from January 19, 2022) on TC eConnects. Manual browser downloads, October 27, 2026. Counts and keyword scans. Northern Border has 822 notices in the exports read, and none of them names Michigan, Lansing, Consumers Energy or Eaton Rapids, so it is not shown to serve the area.
  49. Eaton Rapids Gas Storage System, critical notices (24 notices, January 23, 2024 to September 9, 2026) and non-critical notices (204 notices, October 3, 2023 to October 14, 2026) on TC eConnects, 228 notices in all. Manual browser downloads, October 27, 2026. A keyword scan for withdrawal, curtailment, restriction, force majeure, operational flow order, interruptible, capacity reduction, suspension and injection wording found none; the only outage wording is TC eConnects system maintenance. This is a notice-board record, not an operator statement. TC Energy's notice site lists Eaton Rapids Gas Storage System, which posted 228 notices from October 2023 to October 2026.
  50. Eaton Rapids Gas Storage System, critical notices (24 notices, January 23, 2024 to September 9, 2026) and non-critical notices (204 notices, October 3, 2023 to October 14, 2026) on TC eConnects, 228 notices in all. Manual browser downloads, October 27, 2026. A keyword scan for withdrawal, curtailment, restriction, force majeure, operational flow order, interruptible, capacity reduction, suspension and injection wording found none; the only outage wording is TC eConnects system maintenance. This is a notice-board record, not an operator statement. ↩
  51. Regional layer, pipeline notices (follow-up of October 27, 2026; the ANR, Northern Border and Eaton Rapids notices described above were added the same day): for the other pipelines, the public record doesn't show winter notice counts. ANR and Great Lakes (the TC eConnects page loads but its notices are not in it), Panhandle and Trunkline (unreachable) and Vector (home page without notices) could not be read; no winter 2023-24, 2024-25 or 2025-26 count of critical notices could be made, and it would need manual downloads. The EIA weekly report's five-year comparison for the Midwest region was not read. ↩
  52. Policy context (follow-up of October 27, 2026): three Michigan acts from the Legislature's site are cited as context only. The Michigan Public Service Commission's November 2025 order on a Consumers Energy data center tariff (Case U-21859) and Michigan building and energy code pages could not be read (the commission's site returned HTTP 403), so they are listed as manual downloads. No Michigan gas hookup restriction or electrification rule was found in the sources read. ↩
  53. Michigan Legislature, Public Act 235 of 2023 (Senate Bill 271), enrolled, Section 51 (PDF 13) and act header (PDF 1; approved by the Governor November 28, 2023, effective February 27, 2024) (Policy sources, P1). ↩
  54. Michigan Legislature, Public Act 235 of 2023 (Senate Bill 271), enrolled, definition of clean energy system (PDF 3) (Policy sources, P1). ↩
  55. Michigan Legislature, Public Act 207 of 2024 (House Bill 4906), enrolled, Section 4ee and act header (PDF 1; approved by the Governor January 17, 2025, effective April 17, 2025) (Policy sources, P2); Public Act 181 of 2024 (Senate Bill 237), enrolled, Section 4cc (PDF 1) (Policy sources, P3). ↩
  56. Supply events since 2020 for Consumers Energy: the filing's passage on winter storm Uri and the December 2022 and January 2024 weather events concerns citygate price volatility and describes no supply event on its system; none is documented in the record read. Consumers Energy Company application, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887, Salsbury testimony, PDF 168. ↩
  57. Consumers Energy Company, application (public redacted copy) with testimony and exhibits, Michigan Public Service Commission Case U-21887 (filed December 22, 2025), Exhibit A-33 (ETS-12), page 1 of 3, PDF 216. Utility statement.
  58. Not established, and left out of the page: who pays (cost allocation among customer classes); tariff interruption priorities and penalties; delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (the pipelines' postings were not saved; next capture about March 2027); any Lansing-specific design day, supply table or facility limit; the terms of the October 2026 settlement.
  59. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026, dated 2026-10-23, saved 2026-10-28; Planned sheet, row 1411: T B Simon Power Plant, Michigan State University, plant ID 10328. ↩
  60. Midcontinent Independent System Operator, Generator interconnection queue, public project list (API), dated 2026-09-30, saved 2026-10-28; MISO queue entry J4195 (latest Lansing-area entry, Clinton County); 27 entries in Clinton, Eaton and Ingham counties, none gas. ↩
  61. Lansing Board of Water & Light, Newsroom: Deep Green proposes $120 million sustainable data center investment in downtown Lansing, dated 2025-11-05, saved 2026-10-28; Newsroom page, first paragraph. Lansing Board of Water & Light, Newsroom: BWL General Manager Dick Peffley Issues Statement on Deep Green Project, dated 2026-04-06, saved 2026-10-28; Newsroom page, statement text. ↩
  62. Consumers Energy, 2026 Integrated Resource Plan, Executive Summary, undated, saved 2026-10-28; PDF page 5. ↩
  63. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) StnData web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals, November to March of winters 2023-24 to 2025-26, retrieved October 26 to 28, 2026: LANSING CAPITAL CITY AP. Sums computed. Heating degree days behind the percentages: 4,390 in 2023-24, 4,710 in 2024-25 and 5,217 in 2025-26, against a 1991-2020 normal of 5,160. ↩
  64. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, seasonal temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026, shapefiles lead1 (November to January) and lead2 (December to February) from ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/GIS/us_tempprcpfcst/seastemp_202610.zip, read at each metro's coordinates. The map gives the favored category and the lower edge of its probability band; NOAA's own explanation (Link) keeps near-normal at 33.3% and gives the opposite category the rest, so the above-normal figure is a floor and the below-normal figure a ceiling. For both periods the Lansing area has at least a 50% chance of above-normal temperatures, about 33% near-normal and no more than 17% below-normal. ↩
  65. Michigan Public Service Commission, News release, Consumers Energy gas rate case order, Case U-21981, dated 2026-10-15, saved 2026-10-28; News release, rate paragraph. The new rates are effective November 1. ↩
  66. Michigan Public Service Commission, News release, Consumers Energy gas rate case order, Case U-21981, dated 2026-10-15, saved 2026-10-28; News release, disallowed costs paragraph. The Commission found the plans premature and the timelines uncertain. ↩
  67. Michigan Department of Attorney General, Press release, Consumers Energy filing announcement for new gas rate case, dated 2026-10-20, saved 2026-10-28; Press release, first paragraph. The notice was reported in the Michigan Attorney General's October 20, 2026 release. ↩
  68. Shares in the pipeline contracts table are our calculation from the two winter contracts listed in Consumers Energy's Exhibit A-31 (ETS-10): 100,000 of 200,000 dth per day each. The source is in note 8. ↩
  69. Margin formula behind the 0% margins in the design day exhibit: supply minus load, divided by load, our calculation. ↩

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25 and 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link
  2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link
  3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link
  4. C1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026. Link
  5. C2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in Michigan, monthly. Link
  6. C3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily, release of October 21, 2026. Link

Policy sources

Official sources saved and hashed on October 27, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes.

  1. P1. Michigan Legislature, Public Act 235 of 2023 (Senate Bill 271), enrolled. Link
  2. P2. Michigan Legislature, Public Act 207 of 2024 (House Bill 4906), enrolled. Link
  3. P3. Michigan Legislature, Public Act 181 of 2024 (Senate Bill 237), enrolled. Link

Sources

  1. Michigan Public Service Commission, Case U-21887, Consumers Energy Company gas cost recovery plan for the 12 months ending March 31, 2027. Link
  2. Consumers Energy, Rate Book for Natural Gas Service, M.P.S.C. No. 3 - Gas. Link
  3. DTE Gas Company, Rate Book, M.P.S.C. No. 1 - Gas. Link
  4. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  5. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
  6. Midcontinent Independent System Operator, generator interconnection queue. Link
  7. Federal Register, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices, searched by county. Link
  8. ANR Pipeline Company, Northern Border Pipeline Company and Eaton Rapids Gas Storage System, notices on TC eConnects, saved October 27, 2026 (manual browser downloads).