St. Paul gas capacity: 5.2% margin clears the 5% line; contracts end by 2027

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Published November 2, 2026.

Metro used: the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI metropolitan statistical area, as the federal Office of Management and Budget defined it in Bulletin No. 23-01 on July 21, 2023.³⁵ This page covers St. Paul and the 79 places that only Northern States Power Company (Xcel) names in its gas tariff. Minneapolis and the 161 places that only CenterPoint Energy Resources Corp. (CenterPoint) names are on Minneapolis and the CenterPoint area. Minnesota Energy Resources Corporation (MERC) is covered in a separate section for information; it does not set this page's level, which rests on Xcel's record.

Key takeaways

Who serves the St. Paul area?

The rating rests on Xcel's own record for its whole Minnesota gas system, and this page covers the 79 places that only Xcel's gas tariff names.¹

Places that only Xcel's gas tariff names, by county.¹⁰

The list comes from Xcel's Index of Company's Service Area and covers the metro's 13 Minnesota counties.³⁶ A name on a list does not say which part of the place is served.

St. Paul is named only by Xcel's tariff, and Xcel's information sheet marks it as electricity and gas; the tariff also lists Anoka, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, Washington and Wright counties as a whole, so a place missing from its list may still lie in a county it names.¹¹

22 places are named by none of the three tariffs.¹⁰ The two Wisconsin counties are not covered by the Minnesota tariffs, and this page did not read any record of the Wisconsin utilities.¹²

Served by more than one gas utility; which one depends on the address.

If your site is in one of these places, confirm which utility serves your address. 63 places in the metro are named by more than one gas tariff.¹⁰ A place that crosses a county line is counted once for each county. The tariffs list places, not streets.

The twelve largest of the 63 places that two or three gas tariffs name.¹³

The other 51 entries are listed in the notes.¹⁴ The list also appears on Minneapolis and the CenterPoint area.

Has St. Paul had gas supply problems since 2020?

The records reviewed report no supply event in the last five heating seasons.¹⁵ Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 came before that window, and Xcel said it maintained reliable service to its firm customers then. Xcel said a design day is unlikely in November and December and quite unlikely while Sibley's output is limited, a utility statement and not a finding.⁵ It also said its design day is a 1-in-30-year coldest average temperature that has not occurred since February 1996.⁷ The Wescott LNG plant is in Inver Grove Heights, the Sibley plant in Mendota Heights and the Maplewood plant in Maplewood, all in the Xcel area.¹⁶ The Commission's February 2026 order required Xcel to discuss peaking facility outages and to give monthly updates on Sibley until it returns to service; we did not read the updates.⁶

How much spare gas capacity does St. Paul have on the coldest day?

Capacity of 835,891 dekatherms per day against a design day of 794,208 leaves 41,683, or 5.2% by Xcel's figures, compared with 6.2% before.² Xcel attributes the fall to growth in design day demand.⁷ Xcel's Wescott LNG plant is 16.00% of its peak day capacity, as Xcel states it.³ Its two propane-air plants can together deliver 9.23% as Xcel states it, so about a quarter of its peak day capacity comes from stored fuel.³⁷ Xcel's table shows the capacity needed if a design day came before the propane plants had fuel.

Capacity Xcel's Table 1 says would be needed on a 2026-27 design day, by propane inventory scenario (Xcel's August 3, 2026 petition).⁵

Xcel said its planned transportation reserve margin of 35,730 dekatherms per day is more than the output of one propane plant and less than both.¹⁷ For the scenarios, its plan lists curtailing interruptible customers, using that reserve margin, attempting Northern Natural Gas interruptible service, which Xcel said is not guaranteed, and, if needed, NSP Generation's pipeline capacity. The October 2 order and the Minnesota Department of Commerce's (the Department's) August 2026 comments on the plan are completeness reviews, so we did not read the Department's findings on Xcel's design day in its entitlement docket.⁸

What is driving new natural gas demand?

Xcel forecasts more customers, and the records reviewed show no new gas-fired power plant or data center gas supply in the metro. Xcel forecasts its Minnesota firm customers rising from 496,663 for 2025-26 to 500,561 for 2026-27, which it says contributes to the increase in its design day requirements.¹⁸ Our check of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) September 2026 list of planned generators found no planned natural gas-fired generator in the metro's 15 counties, and 3 natural gas-fired planned rows anywhere in Minnesota.¹⁹ Data centers: As of October 28, 2026, the official records we searched show no gas-fired plant, pipeline lateral or special gas contract serving a data center on Xcel's or MERC's gas system.²¹ MERC said in its petition of July 31, 2026 that it has not been contacted about gas service to hyperscale data centers.²² Nearby: The one new industrial customer in Xcel's plan is at Sartell, which the Census place file puts in Benton and Stearns counties, neither a metro county.²⁰

Are upgrades arriving in time?

The two propane-air peaking plants will not be fully repaired before the 2026-27 heating season starts.⁷ The Sibley work was expected to finish in mid-October 2026 and the Maplewood work in mid-December 2026. The public record read doesn't show whether Sibley finished. Xcel's plan lists eight infrastructure projects for 2026 to 2031 to address system constraints, including the R400 Reinforcement (Phase 2) in Ramsey County for 2027 at an estimated $14,597,000.²³ By our calculation, the Northern Natural Gas contracts ending by October 31, 2027 are 561,790 dekatherms per day, 57.6% of Xcel's peak day capacity.⁴ Xcel said it is developing proposals, and the record shows no replacement.²⁴ About 47% of the expiring capacity is under discounted agreements from a previous economic bypass alternative.

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

Xcel's plan lists curtailing interruptible customers among its steps in all three scenarios.¹⁷ Its text says it would first plan to use its reserve margin transportation capacity and then attempt Northern Natural Gas interruptible service. This page did not read the tariff interruption sequence or any penalties.

What does MERC's record show for the places it names?

MERC's record shows a margin below the 5% line and a local shortage near Farmington, but it is reported for information only and sets neither this page's level nor the CenterPoint page's. MERC said in July 2026 that its NNG system has a 2026-27 design day of 308,291 dekatherms per day, entitlement (the pipeline capacity it has contracted for) of 320,242 and a reserve margin of 3.88%, down from 7.76%.⁹ The Department's table lists the same figures.²⁵ The Department concluded on August 31, 2026 that the margin is acceptable while saying it is lower than the Commission typically approves; it withheld its other recommendations until MERC's November 2026 update. That margin is below the 5% line by 3,463 dekatherms per day, and the shortage is local.⁹ MERC said its gates in the Farmington area are very short on capacity while Rochester has excess. MERC said that moving Rochester's excess to Farmington is not operationally viable and not allowed by NNG because they are on different laterals. MERC also said it will not post any excess capacity for the coming heating season. MERC's fix is an expansion whose size and cost are removed from the public filing as a trade secret.²⁶ It is on track for November 1, 2027, which is after the 2026-27 winter, following a precedent agreement executed on December 29, 2025. MERC also extended a 4,777 dekatherm per day Northern Natural Gas capacity contract through October 31, 2030.²⁷ MERC's tariff names 20 entries in the metro. Elko New Market, Spring Lake township, Rush City, Eureka township, Castle Rock township and Harris are named only by MERC, and the rest are in the shared list above.²⁹ This section sits on this page because Farmington, where MERC's gates are short, is named by Xcel's tariff and MERC's but not by CenterPoint's.¹⁴ MERC's separate Consolidated system, with a 3.10% margin as MERC states it, serves customers along the Great Lakes, Viking and Centra pipelines, not this metro.³⁰

Winter and market context

Across the country. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that the highest odds of warmer than normal conditions are over Southeast Alaska, the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.^B1 EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook says prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.^A2 In this region. The metro spans Minnesota and Wisconsin, both in EIA's Midwest storage region, whose working gas EIA lists at 1,065 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 16, 2026. This page did not read the five-year comparison EIA gives.^C1 EIA's citygate tables list 5.43 dollars per thousand cubic feet for Minnesota and 5.22 for Wisconsin for July 2026, the latest month in the saved tables.^C2 Commodity prices are not evidence of a delivery constraint. National inventory, El Nino, export and Henry Hub figures are in the note.³⁸ We could not confirm whether the pipelines serving the metro have posted recent winter or critical notices: Northern Natural Gas's critical notices page loads its list dynamically and shows none in its static HTML, and the Viking and Great Lakes posting hosts blocked automated downloads.^D1 The next capture is the early December winter refresh.

Winter weather

All three of the last three winters were milder than the 1991-2020 normal at the weather station in the table, measured in heating degree days, which count how far each day's average temperature fell below 65 degrees Fahrenheit.³¹

How cold each of the last three winters was, as a share of the 1991-2020 normal (heating degree days, November to March; NOAA).³²

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook issued October 15, 2026 gives the area the same odds for November 2026 to January 2027 and December 2026 to February 2027, as probabilities for a three-month average and not a forecast of specific days or of an outage.³³

Policy context

Minnesota Statutes 216H.02 states a goal to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors by at least 50 percent by 2030 and to net zero by 2050, compared with 2005.^P1 It is in effect as published by the Revisor of Statutes on October 27, 2026. Section 216B.2427, enacted in 2021, provides that a natural gas utility may file an innovation plan with the commission.^P2

What is the outlook for St. Paul and the Xcel area through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for St. Paul and the Xcel area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Watch (confidence: Medium): Xcel's stated 2026-27 Minnesota reserve margin is not below the 5% thin-margin line, so the base level is Stable, and two documented risk factors raise it one step to Watch.² Documented risk factors: two counted. Concentration (F1): Wescott LNG's stated share of peak day capacity, shown above, is above the 10% test.³ Expiring supply (F2): the NNG contracts ending October 2027, sized above, end within the horizon and the record shows no decided replacement.⁴ The expiring contracts are tested as a risk factor and do not set the base level. MERC's own NNG record (a margin below the 5% line, with Farmington gates very short) is shown above for information only and sets neither page's level.⁹ Three developments would change the assessment: a decision on replacing Xcel's Northern Natural Gas contracts ending October 2027, or the Commission's action on Xcel's entitlement petition; completion of the Sibley and Maplewood repairs, expected by mid-October and mid-December 2026, or a design day balance in Xcel's gas Integrated Resource Plan comments, which close on October 30, 2026; or a lower margin in Xcel's next entitlement filing.⁷ This rating rests on Xcel's record for its whole Minnesota gas system, which cannot be split by area, and its service-area sheets are effective 2014. This page did not read the Department's findings on Xcel's design day, the Wisconsin counties or several smaller systems. Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What's new (as of October 28, 2026)

Xcel's petition of August 3, 2026 lists the 2026-27 reserve margin shown above, and MERC's reply of September 10, 2026 said its Northern Natural Gas contract was extended through October 31, 2030. The Commission's order served October 2, 2026 found Xcel's 2026-2036 gas resource plan complete and set comment dates that run to November 30, 2026. On October 8, 2026, federal staff issued the environmental assessment for Northern Natural Gas's V2F and NL27 projects, which would add 79,303 dekatherms per day of firm service in Minnesota but give no in-service date and name no data center.³⁴

What should St. Paul-area facilities check now?

• Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
• Which utility and rate. Confirm whether each site is served by Xcel, CenterPoint, MERC, another utility or a municipal system, and which rate class it is on, because several suburbs are named by more than one tariff.
• Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
• Upcoming proceedings. Track Xcel's gas Integrated Resource Plan docket, its entitlement dockets and any decision on its Northern Natural Gas contracts, and MERC's November 2026 update. Discovery Energy reviews service elections, interruption terms and regulatory proceedings for organizations across the U.S. and Canada, so capacity changes are understood before they reach the bill. [Schedule a review]

Frequently asked questions

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

• Minneapolis and the CenterPoint area natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Milwaukee natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Watch)
• Denver natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Lansing natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Notes

1. Territory by tariff, written from the three tariffs below against the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 city and township estimates for the 13 Minnesota counties (331 entries, summing to the county totals). A name on a tariff list means the utility lists the place, not that it serves all of it; spelling and label differences were matched. The county tables on this page are drawn from that file. A place that crosses a county line is listed once for each county, with that county's part of its population. ↩
2. Xcel, d/b/a Xcel Energy, Petition for Changes in Contract Demand Entitlements (public version, August 3, 2026); the letter prints Docket E002/M-26-67 and the pages G002/M-26-67, Attachment 2, Schedule 1, page 3 of 3, PDF 47. A utility filing; figures are for Xcel's Minnesota gas system or, where stated, the whole company (Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota). For the whole company, which also serves North Dakota and South Dakota, Xcel lists 974,717 against 926,111, a reserve of 48,606 and the same margin. ↩
3. Xcel, d/b/a Xcel Energy, Petition for Changes in Contract Demand Entitlements (public version, August 3, 2026); the letter prints Docket E002/M-26-67 and the pages G002/M-26-67, Attachment 2, Schedule 1, page 1 of 3, PDF 45. A utility filing; figures are for Xcel's Minnesota gas system or, where stated, the whole company (Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota). ↩
4. Calculations: Xcel's expiring Northern Natural Gas share = the sum of the 14 non-summer Northern Natural Gas contract rows ending by October 31, 2027 (561,790, from the Schedule 1 profile) / total design day capacity 974,717 = 57.64%; the profile's own stated percentages for those rows sum to 57.62%. Wescott LNG share = 156,000 / 974,717 = 16.00% (stated 16.00%); propane-air share = 90,000 / 974,717 = 9.23% (stated 9.23%). Xcel's figures are for the whole company (Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota) where the profile gives no Minnesota split. ↩
5. Xcel, d/b/a Xcel Energy, Petition for Changes in Contract Demand Entitlements (public version, August 3, 2026); the letter prints Docket E002/M-26-67 and the pages G002/M-26-67, Attachment 1, Section F.4 and Table 1, PDF 29 and 30. A utility filing; figures are for Xcel's Minnesota gas system or, where stated, the whole company (Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota). ↩
6. Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, order served February 17, 2026, Docket G-002/M-25-67 (Xcel contract demand entitlements for 2025-26), PDF 1: approved Xcel's 6.2 percent reserve margin for 2025-26 and required discussion of peaking facility maintenance outages and monthly updates on the Sibley plant. A Commission order; it is for the 2025-26 plan year and states no finding on 2026-27. ↩
7. Xcel, d/b/a Xcel Energy, Petition for Changes in Contract Demand Entitlements (public version, August 3, 2026); the letter prints Docket E002/M-26-67 and the pages G002/M-26-67, Attachment 1, Sections C, F.2 and F.3, PDF 27 and 28. A utility filing; figures are for Xcel's Minnesota gas system or, where stated, the whole company (Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota). Dates of completion are Xcel's expectations as of August 2026. ↩
8. Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, order served October 2, 2026, Docket G002/RP-26-168, order point 1, PDF 1; Minnesota Department of Commerce, completeness and procedural comments of August 7, 2026, PDF 4. A Commission procedural order and a staff completeness review; neither states a design day or reserve margin finding. ↩
9. MERC, Petition for Approval of a Change in Demand Entitlement for its NNG System (public version, July 31, 2026), Docket G011/M-26-68, Sections II.A, IV and VI, PDF 11, 17, 18 and 19. A utility filing; figures are for MERC's whole Northern Natural Gas system, which includes Rochester and places outside the metro. ↩
10. Territory by tariff, written from the three tariffs below against the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 city and township estimates for the 13 Minnesota counties (331 entries, summing to the county totals). A name on a tariff list means the utility lists the place, not that it serves all of it; spelling and label differences were matched. The county tables on this page are drawn from that file. A place that crosses a county line is listed once for each county, with that county's part of its population. ↩
11. Northern States Power Company (Xcel Energy), Minnesota Gas Rate Book MPUC No. 2, Section 3, Index of Company's Service Area, Sheets 3-1 to 3-3, effective November 1, 2014 (Docket G002/M-14-583), PDF 1 and 5; and Xcel Energy's information sheet, Minnesota Communities Served by Xcel Energy (letter codes E, G, EG), PDF 3 and 4. A utility tariff and information sheet; the sheets are 2014 vintage and the tariff names whole counties as well as places. ↩
12. County utility lists are Discovery Energy's EIA-176 county lists, written into. They show where a utility reports operations, not tariff territory, and they differ from the filings in one place: Xcel's Sibley and Wescott plants are in Dakota County by the Census Bureau's 2020 place by county file, where the lists do not name Xcel. County populations are the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 county estimates. ↩
13. Territory by tariff, written from the three tariffs below against the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 city and township estimates for the 13 Minnesota counties (331 entries, summing to the county totals). A name on a tariff list means the utility lists the place, not that it serves all of it; spelling and label differences were matched. The county tables on this page are drawn from that file. A place that crosses a county line is listed once for each county, with that county's part of its population. The tariffs behind the table are CenterPoint Section III, Xcel Section 3 and MERC Sheets 2.00 and 2.01. Xcel's sheets are effective 2014. ↩
14. Territory by tariff, written from the three tariffs below against the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 city and township estimates for the 13 Minnesota counties (331 entries, summing to the county totals). A name on a tariff list means the utility lists the place, not that it serves all of it; spelling and label differences were matched. The county tables on this page are drawn from that file. A place that crosses a county line is listed once for each county, with that county's part of its population. The other 51 entries are: Afton, Baldwin, Becker, Becker township, Big Lake, Big Lake township, Blaine, Buffalo, Buffalo township, Centerville, Clearwater, Clearwater township, Cleveland, Cleveland township, Columbus, Credit River, Denmark township, East Bethel, Empire, Ham Lake, Independence, Isanti, Isanti township, Jackson township, Lake Elmo, Lakeland, Lakeland Shores, Louisville township, Middleville township, Minnetrista, Mounds View, New Market township, North Branch, North Branch township, Orrock township, Princeton, Princeton township, Randolph, Randolph township, Rockford, Rockford township, St. Michael, Victor township, West Lakeland township, White Bear Lake, Woodland, Woodland township, Zimmerman. ↩
15. Xcel Energy, 2026-2036 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan (public version, July 1, 2026), Docket G002/RP-26-168, Winter Storm Uri analysis, PDF 120. A utility plan. ↩
16. Xcel Energy, 2026-2036 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan (public version, July 1, 2026), Docket G002/RP-26-168, Gas Supply Overview, Peak Shaving Plants, PDF 86. A utility plan. ↩
17. Xcel, d/b/a Xcel Energy, Petition for Changes in Contract Demand Entitlements (public version, August 3, 2026); the letter prints Docket E002/M-26-67 and the pages G002/M-26-67, Attachment 1, Section F.4 and Table 1, PDF 29 and 30. A utility filing; figures are for Xcel's Minnesota gas system or, where stated, the whole company (Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota). ↩
18. Xcel, d/b/a Xcel Energy, Petition for Changes in Contract Demand Entitlements (public version, August 3, 2026); the letter prints Docket E002/M-26-67 and the pages G002/M-26-67, Attachment 1, Section 1, PDF 13. A utility filing; figures are for Xcel's Minnesota gas system or, where stated, the whole company (Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota). ↩
19. Lines computed from EIA-860M (September 2026) and the Federal Register search of FERC notices, by county; the EIA-860M file is. The inventory is preliminary and does not list data centers or units not yet reported; absence from it is not proof that none is planned. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator queue page loads its list dynamically and was not read. The list is the EIA-860M Planned sheet. ↩
20. Xcel Energy, 2026-2036 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan (public version, July 1, 2026), Docket G002/RP-26-168, Sartell Area project, PDF 154. A utility plan; the Census place file puts Sartell outside the metro counties. ↩
21. Discovery Energy data center scan log, October 28, 2026; a search that finds nothing does not prove that no project exists. ↩
22. Minnesota Energy Resources Corporation (petition, raw copy), MERC-NNG demand entitlement petition, section IX Impacts of Data Centers on Demand, G011/M-26-68 (2026-07-31), Section IX, petition page 16. ↩
23. Xcel Energy, 2026-2036 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan (public version, July 1, 2026), Docket G002/RP-26-168, Proposed Natural Gas Infrastructure Projects and Table 3, PDF 56 and 57. A utility plan. ↩
24. Xcel, d/b/a Xcel Energy, Petition for Changes in Contract Demand Entitlements (public version, August 3, 2026); the letter prints Docket E002/M-26-67 and the pages G002/M-26-67, Attachment 1, Section 2.c, PDF 17. A utility filing; figures are for Xcel's Minnesota gas system or, where stated, the whole company (Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota). ↩
25. Minnesota Department of Commerce, comments of August 31, 2026, Docket G011/M-26-68, Table 5 (PDF 12) and Section D (PDF 12 and 13). A staff analysis and conclusion; the Department withheld its other recommendations until MERC's November 2026 update. ↩
26. MERC, Petition for Approval of a Change in Demand Entitlement for its NNG System (public version, July 31, 2026), Docket G011/M-26-68, Section VI.4, PDF 22 and 23. A utility filing; the size and cost of the Farmington-area expansion are excised as trade secret. ↩
27. MERC, reply comments of September 10, 2026, Docket G011/M-26-68, PDF 2. A utility filing. ↩
28. MERC, Petition for Approval of a Change in Demand Entitlement for its NNG System (public version, July 31, 2026), Docket G011/M-26-68, Section IX, PDF 24. A utility filing. MERC's petition also says no hyperscale data center had contacted it about gas service in its distribution service area.
29. Minnesota Energy Resources Corporation, Tariff and Rate Book, Minnesota Cities Served by MERC (Sheets 2.00 effective December 8, 2024 and 2.01 effective July 1, 2019) and Counties Served (Sheet 2.02), PDF 1. A utility tariff; a name on the list does not say which part of the place is served. ↩
30. MERC, Petition for Approval of a Change in Demand Entitlement for its Consolidated System (July 31, 2026), Docket G011/M-26-69, PDF 9, 15, 16, 20 and 43; Department comments of August 31, 2026, PDF 2, 10 and 11. The Consolidated petition covers customers along the Great Lakes, Viking and Centra pipelines; MERC's Northern Natural Gas area petition is cited in its own notes. ↩
31. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed. [W5-WX-HDD-minneapolis_st_paul-2023-24, W5-WX-HDD-minneapolis_st_paul-2024-25, W5-WX-HDD-minneapolis_st_paul-2025-26]. ↩
32. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed. [W5-WX-HDD-minneapolis_st_paul-2023-24, W5-WX-HDD-minneapolis_st_paul-2024-25, W5-WX-HDD-minneapolis_st_paul-2025-26]. ↩
33. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed. [W5-WX-CPC-st_paul-1, W5-WX-CPC-st_paul-2]. The probabilities for both periods are 50.0% above normal, 33.3% near normal and 16.7% below normal. ↩
34. Northern States Power Company d/b/a Xcel Energy, Petition for Changes in Contract Demand Entitlements (public version, August 3, 2026), docket printed on the letter as E002/M-26-67, E002/M-26-67 (as printed), Attachment 2, Schedule 1, page 3 of 3 (PDF 47), PDF page 47; Minnesota Energy Resources Corporation, Reply Comments (September 10, 2026), Dockets G011/M-26-68 and G011/M-26-69, Reply comments (PDF 2), PDF page 2; Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, Order on Xcel Energy's 2026-2036 Gas Integrated Resource Plan (service date October 2, 2026), Docket G-002/RP-26-168, G002/RP-26-168, Order point 1 (PDF 1), PDF page 1; Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (Federal Register notice), Northern Natural Gas Company; Notice of Availability of the Environmental Assessment (V2F and NL27 projects), CP26-130-000 (2026-10-08), Federal Register notice 2026-20580, first paragraph. It is a capacity addition on the pipeline, not new gas load, so it does not change the rating. ↩
35. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023), Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas: the federal definition of the metropolitan statistical area and its counties used on this page. The counties are Anoka, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Hennepin, Isanti, Le Sueur, Mille Lacs, Ramsey, Scott, Sherburne, Washington and Wright counties, Minnesota; and Pierce and St. Croix counties, Wisconsin.
36. Xcel's Index of Company's Service Area is Section 3 of its Minnesota gas rate book, effective November 1, 2014. ↩
37. Xcel's two propane-air plants can together deliver 90,000 dekatherms per day, 9.23% of its peak day capacity as Xcel states it (the calculation is in note 4). ↩
38. National figures moved from the market section: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that the probability of at least a strong El Nino event continuing through January to March 2027 is 80% (Market and weather sources, B1). EIA said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average (A1). EIA's indicator table lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15, 18 and 19 billion cubic feet per day for 2025, 2026 and 2027 (A2). EIA's Henry Hub spot price table lists 3.28 and 3.10 dollars per million Btu for the first days of the week of October 19, 2026 (C3). ↩

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 27, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; the next issue is expected in November 2026.

1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link
2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩
4. B2. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook, GIS data, issued October 15, 2026, saved October 28, 2026. Link
5. B3. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days and 1991-2020 normals, saved October 28, 2026. Link
6. C1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026. Link ↩
7. C2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in Minnesota and in Wisconsin, monthly. Link and Link ↩
8. C3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily. Link
9. D1. Northern Natural Gas, Informational Postings, Notices, Critical, saved October 27, 2026; the notice list loads dynamically and none is in the static page. Link ↩

Policy sources

Official sources saved and hashed on October 27, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes.

1. P1. Minnesota Office of the Revisor of Statutes, Minnesota Statutes 216H.02, Greenhouse gas emissions control, saved October 27, 2026. Link ↩
2. P2. Minnesota Office of the Revisor of Statutes, Minnesota Statutes 216B.2427, Natural gas utility innovation plans, saved October 27, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

1. Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, Docket G002/M-26-67 (printed E002/M-26-67 on the letter), Xcel, contract demand entitlements (August 3, 2026). Link
2. Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, Docket G002/RP-26-168, Xcel, 2026-2036 gas Integrated Resource Plan (July to October 2026). Link
3. Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, Docket G-002/M-25-67, Xcel, contract demand entitlements for 2025-26 (order served February 17, 2026). Link
4. Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, Docket G011/M-26-68, MERC, Northern Natural Gas system demand entitlement (July to September 2026). Link
5. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.