Spokane-area natural gas capacity: the utility's plan shows no new transportation needed for firm loads, and the Commission acknowledged it

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated October 2026.

Metro used: the Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA metropolitan statistical area, as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023): Spokane and Stevens counties. One gas distribution utility is identified in the record, Avista Corporation (Avista), doing business as Avista Utilities. Its 2025 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan covers Washington, Idaho and Oregon; it names communities served in both metro counties and gives a peak day load forecast for its Washington area, so the Washington figures below are the most local the record has and are labeled by their geography. Other gas utilities in the two counties are not established in the record.¹

Key takeaways

Which parts of the record fall inside the Spokane metro?

Avista's plan says its Kettle Falls high pressure line serves Addy, Chewelah, Colville, Deer Park and Kettle Falls; Addy, Chewelah, Colville and Kettle Falls are in Stevens County and Deer Park is in Spokane County. The plan also says the Airway Heights main supplies a major regulator station supporting the Downtown Spokane neighborhoods.⁷

Avista's planning items by whether they fall inside the Spokane metro (OMB delineation). Source: 2025 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan, Chapters Three, Five and Ten.¹

System context: the transportation and storage totals below cover Avista North or the whole company, and the plan does not allocate them to the two metro counties.

How much spare gas capacity does Spokane have on the coldest day?

Avista's table of peak day design temperatures gives Spokane a coldest day on record of -17 degrees F, a 99th percentile coldest day forecast of -24 and a 2045 design day of -14. Avista said that for the 2025 plan it further evolved its design day method by taking the coldest day on record for each area and adjusting it for expected temperature change.²

Avista's peak day load forecast for its Washington area, net of energy efficiency, follows.

Avista's peak day load forecast, Washington area, thousand Dth, net of energy efficiency, per Avista. Source: 2025 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan, Table 3.7.³

Avista said it is still long on transport rights and is not proposing any change to them, and that no new fuel transportation is required to meet firm customer loads. Its table shows contracted firm transportation of 349,674 Dth per day in winter for Avista North, including 157,869 Dth per day on Northwest Pipeline.⁴⁶

The plan's resource charts are images and its text does not give a reserve margin for Spokane or Stevens County, so the margin on the coldest day is not established here and is not estimated.

What is driving new natural gas demand?

Avista said several industrial customers are considering the Airway Heights location in Spokane County for new facilities or expansion. The plan names no customer, load or service date, so the record does not show a documented load with a service date.⁷

A search of other official records found no further documented gas load in the two metro counties: EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists no planned natural gas-fired generator there, and a search of Federal Register notices of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission since January 1, 2025 found no pipeline notice naming Spokane or Stevens County.⁹

Are upgrades arriving in time?

Avista's plan shows no capacity need for transportation. For the Airway Heights high pressure main, Avista said a reinforcement will provide additional capacity for industrial growth and reliable pressure at the end of the main, but its project table lists the growth-driven reinforcement with cost and timing as TBD, which is neither an approved nor a scheduled project. For the Kettle Falls line in Stevens County, Avista said design begins in 2026-27 with construction anticipated in 2027-28, and described it as an integrity project, not a capacity project.⁷

The Commission's letter does not determine the prudency of any course of action in the plan; it said it will conduct prudency reviews in future rate proceedings.⁵

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for, among other areas, the northern tier from the Pacific Northwest eastward, a discussion that names regions and not counties, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%.^B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.^A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.^A1 These are national and regional facts, not statements about the utility's system, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

What is the outlook for Spokane gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Spokane-area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Stable (confidence: Medium): Avista's 2025 plan, which the Commission acknowledged, says no new transportation is required for firm loads and its Washington-area peak day load forecast declines, though the figures are for its Washington area or whole system. Documented risk factors: none beyond the base level. Three developments would change the assessment: Avista's next gas IRP and any change to its transportation rights or capacity releases; the Airway Heights high pressure reinforcement, which has no date or budget in the filed plan, and any named industrial load there; the Commission's recommendations for Avista's future plans and any decision on gas planning.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What should Spokane-area facilities check now?

• Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
• Which service. Confirm whether each site takes firm or interruptible service from Avista; the plan says Avista does not make firm commitments to serve interruptible customers and assumes those loads would be curtailed on a peak day to serve firm customers.
• Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
• Upcoming proceedings. Track Avista's next gas IRP and its Airway Heights reinforcement if the site is in that area.

Frequently asked questions

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

• Seattle natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Portland area natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Boise natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Watch)
• Salt Lake City area natural gas capacity case study (outlook: High)

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Notes

1. Avista Corporation, 2025 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan (filed March 31, 2025; Washington UTC docket UG-240207), PDF 254 and PDF 255 (Chapter Ten) and PDF 85 (Table 3.7). Utility statements. Metro counties from metro_counties.csv; classification in spokane_metro_classification.csv. The match of towns to counties is general geography, not a quotation. [SPO-01, SPO-02, SPO-06] ↩
2. Same plan, Chapter Three, PDF 76 and PDF 77 (Table 3.4). [SPO-05, SPO-26] ↩
3. Same plan, Chapter Three, PDF 85 (Table 3.7, Washington column). The decline from 2026 to 2029 is run by code (spokane_calculations.csv; illustrative): 224.69 divided by 238.13 less one. [SPO-06, SPO-07] ↩
4. Same plan, Chapter Five, PDF 125 (Table 5.3, contracted firm transportation as filed). Northwest Pipeline TF-1 is 45.1% of Avista North's winter firm transportation by code (illustrative; a share of contracts, not of design day). [SPO-10 to SPO-12] ↩
5. Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission, Revised Commission Acknowledgment Letter re Avista Gas IRP, Docket UG-240207, served September 26, 2025, PDF 1 (the rule cited is Washington Administrative Code 480-90-238); docket document list, saved October 25, 2026. Commission letter. [SPO-03, SPO-04, SPO-17] ↩
6. Same plan, Chapter Two, PDF 31 and PDF 39. [SPO-08, SPO-09] ↩
7. Same plan, Chapter Ten, PDF 254 and PDF 255; Chapter Two, PDF 31 (interruptible customers). [SPO-01, SPO-02, SPO-13 to SPO-16, SPO-27] ↩
8. Not established, and left out of the page: supply events since January 1, 2020 affecting Avista in an official record (none found); delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (Northwest Pipeline and Gas Transmission Northwest postings were not captured; next capture about March 2027); Avista's cost allocation among customer classes and its tariff interruption sequence (not read); the expiration dates of its pipeline contracts (not in the text read); and any reserve margin for Spokane or Stevens County.
9. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet, operator-reported planned dates), filtered to Spokane and Stevens counties by code, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by county phrase, both computed by code. A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [SPO-18, SPO-19] ↩
10. R3 not established, and left out of the claims (searches run: EIA-860M, a Federal Register search of FERC notices by county, and the plan text): state air permit records (Washington Department of Ecology, Spokane Regional Clean Air Agency), Avista and Northwest Pipeline interconnection queues and FERC eLibrary filings, none of which a script could save; news reports are leads only and are not claimed.

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

1. Avista Corporation, 2025 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan. Link
2. Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission, docket UG-240207, Revised Commission Acknowledgment Letter, September 26, 2025. Link
3. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
4. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
5. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link