Oregon and Washington natural gas case study, Portland area and Salem. October 2026

Portland-area natural gas capacity: the utility's plan shows a design day deficit met by storage recalls, with a larger recall scheduled for winter 2027-28

NW Natural said in its 2025 plan, filed with the Oregon Public Utility Commission (Oregon PUC), that its design peak day for the 2026-27 gas year is 1,037,202 Dth per day and that it recalled 20,000 Dth per day of Mist storage deliverability for 2024-25 and another 15,000 for 2025-26 to meet design day requirements; its action plan schedules further recalls of 5,000 Dth per day for 2026-27 and 65,000 for 2027-28, the year its segmented capacity stops counting as firm. Oregon PUC Staff recommended in April 2026 that the Commission acknowledge the plan; the Commission's order was not retrieved.

1,037,202 Dth per dayNW Natural's design peak day for the 2026-27 gas year, whole system, per NW Natural
65,000 Dth per dayMist recall in NW Natural's action plan for 2027-28, whole system, per NW Natural
60,700 Dth per daySegmented capacity, labeled not primary firm, in NW Natural's 2024/2025 peak day resource summary, whole system
343,237 Dth per dayNet deliverability over upstream pipeline capacity in the same summary, whole system, per NW Natural

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated .

Key takeaways

  • NW Natural said in its 2025 plan that it plans to a 99th percentile peak day, equivalent to a 1-in-100-year weather event, and that its Reference Case design peak day is 1,037,202 Dth per day for the 2026-27 gas year and 1,040,670 for 2027-28, for its whole system.2
  • NW Natural said in its IRP Update that it recalled 20,000 Dth per day of Mist storage deliverability to meet a design day deficit for the 2024-25 winter, and that another 15,000 Dth per day was recalled to meet peak day requirements for the 2025-26 winter.4
  • NW Natural's action plan schedules a Mist recall of 5,000 Dth per day for 2026-27 and 65,000 Dth per day for 2027-28, subject to updated load forecasts and information about Woodfibre LNG; the text read shows no budget or approval for these recalls.4
  • NW Natural said segmented capacity, which its 2024/2025 summary lists at 60,700 Dth per day and labels not primary firm, will not be reliable on a firm basis during a design peak day starting in 2027, when Woodfibre LNG in British Columbia is expected to start up.34
  • System context: NW Natural said all but a small share of its gas must be transported over the fully subscribed Northwest Pipeline system, and that Woodfibre LNG will convert about 300,000 Dth per day of gas, which it equates to approximately 15 percent of the winter capacity to Sumas on the T-South system.6
  • A search of official records found no planned natural gas-fired generator in the seven metro counties in EIA's September 2026 inventory, and no pipeline notice naming the Oregon counties among Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices since January 1, 2025.8

Which parts of the record fall inside the Portland and Salem metros?

System context: NW Natural's plan covers its whole system in Oregon and Clark County, Washington. The plan describes service areas from Portland to the north coast of Oregon and in Clark County, Washington, so the Oregon and Washington metro counties it serves are inside the metro and its coastal and other service areas are outside.1

Where Item in NW Natural's plan
Inside the Portland metro The McMinnville Feeder serving Amity, McMinnville and Lafayette in Yamhill County; NW Natural's service in the Oregon and Clark County metro counties
Inside the Salem metro The Dallas Feeder serving Dallas, Oregon (Polk County); the Salem weather zone; NW Natural's system area in Marion County
Outside the metros, system context NW Natural's system-wide design peak day, resource stack and Mist recall plan; its service areas on the north coast of Oregon; Woodfibre LNG, the Sumas hub and T-South in British Columbia
Unclear Skamania County and any other gas utility in the metro counties; the town-level split of NW Natural's service among the metro counties; which places in Polk County NW Natural serves

NW Natural's service area and system-wide figures, by whether they fall inside the Portland or Salem metro (OMB delineation). Source: 2025 Integrated Resource Plan, chapters 8, 12 and 13.1711

System context: the plan gives no design day or resource figure for the metro counties alone, so the system-wide figures are the most local the record has for the base figures. The metro-local capacity items in the plan are the McMinnville Feeder in the Portland metro, covered under upgrades below, and the Dallas Feeder in the Salem metro, covered in the Salem section.

Salem

Counties and the plan. The metro has two counties: Marion and Polk.11 NW Natural's plan says its service territory includes the Willamette Valley, where Salem lies, and lists Marion County, Salem's county, among the other parts of its system area, with population growth of 0.5 percent. It says the Salem metro area has enjoyed above average employment growth since the pandemic, partly on federal spending that it expects to fall. It does not name Polk County, so which places in Polk County NW Natural serves is not established. The plan gives Salem its own weather zone, with a peak of 54.8 heating degree days (Portland: 57.0).11

Local capacity items. In Polk County, NW Natural said the Dallas Feeder, a 6-inch pipeline serving Dallas, Oregon, has a modeled lowest peak-day pressure of about 115.6 psig, a 32 pressure drop, and that two projects would raise its available capacity from 80 to about 900 therms per hour; its action plan continues scoping them with an anticipated in-service date of 2036 and plans demand-side programs in Dallas to delay it. The plan also says the Newport LNG facility provides 73 MMscfd (78,000 Dth per day) of system capacity at design peak, below its 100 MMcf per day vaporization capacity, because of pipeline limitations flowing gas from Newport back through the Central Coast feeder toward Salem; that is a limit on a system resource, and the plan names no gate station in the metro. The Dallas Feeder date is after this page's horizon and does not set the level.11

What applies from the rest of the page. The plan gives no figure for the metro's share of NW Natural's customers, so the system-wide figures on this page apply to Salem: the design day deficit met by Mist recalls and the larger recall scheduled for winter 2027-28. The generator-inventory and Federal Register searches under the demand heading were run for the seven Portland counties only and were not run for Marion and Polk counties.811

How much spare gas capacity does Portland have on the coldest day?

Major natural gas pipelines serving Portland and Salem N Portland Portland Salem Salem Northwest Pipeline Northwest Pipeline Other transmission pipelines in the EIA layer (interstate and intrastate; unlabeled) Pipeline named in a verified claim on this page (labeled, one color each) Metro counties (boundary used on this page) Major highways (for orientation)
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving Portland and Salem. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

NW Natural said its peak day planning standard is the 99th percentile of a Monte Carlo simulation, equivalent to planning for a 1-in-100-year weather event. Its peak day forecast for the 2024-25 gas year is 1,026,865 Dth per day, and its Reference Case design peak day is 1,037,202 for 2026-27 and 1,040,670 for 2027-28, all for its whole system.2

NW Natural's resource summary for the 2024/2025 tracker year lists what it can deliver on a peak day.3

Resource on a peak day, 2024/2025 tracker year Dth per day
Net deliverability over upstream pipeline capacity 343,237
Off-system storage (Jackson Prairie only) 46,030
On-system storage (Mist, Portland LNG and Newport LNG) 502,630
Recallable capacity and supply agreements 31,000
Citygate deliveries 15,000
On-system supplies 1,200
Segmented capacity (not primary firm) 60,700

NW Natural's peak day resource summary for the 2024/2025 tracker year, whole system, Dth per day, per NW Natural. Source: 2025 Integrated Resource Plan, Appendix F, Table F-6.3

A note to the table says segmented capacity is included as a firm resource through the 2027-28 gas year under the 2022 plan, and that reliance for a peak event reduces to zero beyond it.3 The 2025 plan's text goes further: NW Natural said segmented capacity will not be reliable on a firm basis during a design peak day starting in 2027.4

NW Natural's recall agreements include 30,000 Dth per day with Portland General Electric, with a termination date of October 31, 2026.3 The plan's figures are for a tracker year, and the text read does not total the resources against the design day for each coming winter, so the record read does not show a reserve margin for the coldest day. That is not established here and is not estimated.

What is driving new natural gas demand?

NW Natural's plan forecasts demand for its whole system from customer counts and weather and does not name a large new gas load inside the seven metro counties. System context: NW Natural said Woodfibre LNG, which is being built in British Columbia, will convert about 300,000 Dth per day of gas to LNG, equal to approximately 15 percent of the total winter capacity to Sumas on the T-South system, and that if a regional peak cold weather event occurred after Woodfibre is in service and before a solution is found, it could possibly see supply shortages in the Pacific Northwest.6

A search of other official records found no further documented gas load in the metro counties: EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists no planned natural gas-fired generator in the seven counties, and a search of Federal Register notices of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission since January 1, 2025 found no pipeline notice naming the five Oregon counties.8

Are upgrades arriving in time?

NW Natural's near-term action item is to meet customer peak day deliverability requirements by acquiring peak day energy efficiency and recalling Mist storage over five years, subject to updated load forecasts, information about Woodfibre LNG and other updates.4 The schedule shows peak day energy efficiency of 7,500 Dth per day and a Mist recall of 5,000 Dth per day for 2026-27, and 8,500 Dth per day of energy efficiency and a Mist recall of 65,000 Dth per day for 2027-28.4 The text read gives no budget for these recalls.

Oregon PUC Staff described Mist recall as the least-cost supply-side capacity resource, which meets design day needs through at least 2033.5 In a report dated April 8, 2026 for the April 28, 2026 public meeting, Staff recommended that the Commission acknowledge the plan, subject to conditions; that is a recommendation and not an order, and the Commission's order was not retrieved.5

In Yamhill County, inside the metro, NW Natural said the McMinnville Feeder, which serves Amity, McMinnville and Lafayette, can support up to an additional 650 therms per hour of firm load.7 Its action plan continues scoping two reinforcement options with an anticipated in-service date of 2049, with non-pipe alternatives planned to delay the reinforcement.7

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for, among other areas, the northern tier from the Pacific Northwest eastward, a discussion that names regions and not counties, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%.B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.A1 These are national and regional facts, not statements about the utility's system, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

What is the outlook for Portland gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Portland-area and Salem natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): NW Natural's plan records a design day deficit met each winter by Mist recalls, and schedules a recall of 65,000 Dth per day for 2027-28 with no approved fix or budget shown in the record read, though its figures are for its whole system. Documented risk factors: none beyond the base level. Three developments would change the assessment: the Oregon PUC's order on the plan and any conditions on the Mist recall; NW Natural's next IRP Update, with new recall quantities and costs for 2026-27 and 2027-28; Woodfibre LNG's start-up and any Sumas pipeline solution, which decide whether segmented capacity returns.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What should Portland-area facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Which service. Confirm whether each site takes firm or interruptible service from NW Natural, and read the interruption terms in the current approved tariff.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Upcoming proceedings. Track the Oregon PUC's order on NW Natural's 2025 plan and the company's next IRP Update.

Frequently asked questions

Will Portland businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The record does not show a shortage. NW Natural said it recalled 20,000 Dth per day of Mist deliverability for 2024-25 and another 15,000 for 2025-26 to meet design day requirements, and its action plan schedules 5,000 Dth per day for 2026-27. These are statements for its whole system, and this page makes no prediction about outages.

Does NW Natural have spare gas capacity on the coldest day?

NW Natural plans for a 99th percentile design peak day of 1,037,202 Dth per day for 2026-27. Its 2024/2025 resource summary lists 343,237 Dth per day of net pipeline deliverability and 502,630 of on-system storage among other resources, and the plan records a design day deficit met by storage recalls. The text read does not show a reserve margin.

What happens to NW Natural's supply in winter 2027-28?

NW Natural said segmented capacity, listed at 60,700 Dth per day in its 2024/2025 summary, will not be reliable on a firm basis during a design peak day starting in 2027. Its action plan schedules a Mist recall of 65,000 Dth per day for 2027-28.

Did the Oregon PUC approve NW Natural's gas plan?

Oregon PUC Staff recommended in April 2026 that the Commission acknowledge the plan, subject to conditions. The Commission's order was not retrieved, and this page does not state its outcome.

Is a data center or power plant driving gas demand in Portland?

The record does not show one. NW Natural's plan names no large new gas load inside the metro counties, EIA's September 2026 inventory lists no planned gas-fired generator there, and no Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pipeline notice names the Oregon counties. NW Natural did say Woodfibre LNG in British Columbia will draw on the Sumas hub from 2027.

Does this case study cover Salem?

Yes. The Salem metro has its own section. NW Natural's plan gives its design day, recall and resource figures for the whole system, so they apply to Salem on the same record. The plan's local items for the Salem metro are the Dallas Feeder in Polk County, with a reinforcement anticipated for 2036, and a Newport LNG limit on the pipeline toward Salem.

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Understand your capacity exposure

Discovery Energy reviews service elections, interruption terms and regulatory proceedings for organizations across the U.S. and Canada, so capacity changes are understood before they reach the bill.

Schedule a review

Notes

  1. NW Natural, 2025 Integrated Resource Plan, chapters (Oregon PUC Docket LC 86; filed August 2025), PDF 292 (service areas); metro counties from metro_counties.csv; classification in portland_metro_classification.csv. Utility statement. [PDX-01, PDX-30] ↩
  2. Same plan, chapter 4, PDF 129 (planning standard) and PDF 138 (peak day forecast and footnotes), and Appendix B, Table B-10, PDF 99 (design peak day by gas year). Utility statements. [PDX-02 to PDX-06, PDX-29] ↩
  3. Same plan, Appendix F, Tables F-5 and F-6, PDF 231 (2024/2025 tracker year), redacted public version. Utility statements. [PDX-07 to PDX-15] ↩
  4. Same plan, Appendix A (PDF 33, NW Natural's IRP Update responses), chapter 9 (PDF 328) and chapter 13, action item B-1 (PDF 495 and PDF 496). Utility statements. The shares run by code and not used in the text are in portland_calculations.csv (illustrative): the 2027-28 recall is 6.25% of that year's design peak day, and segmented capacity is 5.91% of the 2024-25 design peak day and 17.68% of net deliverability over upstream pipeline capacity. [PDX-16 to PDX-21] ↩
  5. Oregon Public Utility Commission, Staff Report for the April 28, 2026 public meeting, Docket LC 86, PDF 1 and PDF 5. Staff analysis, a recommendation and not an order. [PDX-22, PDX-23] ↩
  6. NW Natural, 2025 plan, chapter 8, PDF 286 and PDF 287 (Sumas exposure and Woodfibre LNG). Utility statements. [PDX-24 to PDX-28] ↩
  7. Same plan, chapter 12, PDF 483, and chapter 13, PDF 500 (McMinnville Feeder). Utility statements. [PDX-30 to PDX-32] ↩
  8. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet, operator-reported planned dates), filtered to the seven metro counties by code, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by county phrase, both computed by code. A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [PDX-33 to PDX-35] ↩
  9. Not established, and left out of the page: supply events since January 1, 2020 affecting NW Natural in an official record (none found in the records read; actual demand of 813,860 Dth per day on January 13, 2024 is reported in the plan with no event described); delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (not captured; next capture about March 2027); NW Natural's cost allocation among customer classes and its interruption sequence (its tariff was not read); the Oregon PUC's order on the plan; whether Skamania County or any other utility is served by another gas utility; the contents of pages the company redacted under General Protective Order No. 23-132 (for example its trucking study); and whether the 2024/2025 resource summary already includes the recalls made since.
  10. R3 not established beyond the searches in Note 8, and left out of the claims: state air permit records (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, Southwest Clean Air Agency), interconnection queue records and FERC eLibrary certificate filings, none of which a script could save; news reports are leads only and are not claimed.
  11. NW Natural, 2025 Integrated Resource Plan, chapters: chapter 1, PDF 24; chapter 2, PDF 58; chapter 8, PDF 291 and 292; chapter 12, Table 12.1, PDF 458, and section 12.7.3, PDF 488 and 489; chapter 13, action item B-25, PDF 499; Salem metro counties from the OMB delineation file (metro_counties_added.csv). Utility statements. The match of Dallas to Polk County and of Salem to the Willamette Valley is general geography, not a quotation; the absence of the words Polk County from the plan is computed by code (metroadd_calculations.csv). Not established, and left out: the metro's share of customers; which places in Polk County NW Natural serves; searches for new gas load in Marion and Polk counties. ↩

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
  2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
  3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

  1. NW Natural, 2025 Integrated Resource Plan, chapters. Link
  2. NW Natural, 2025 Integrated Resource Plan, appendices (redacted). Link
  3. NW Natural, Integrated Resource Plan archive. Link
  4. Oregon Public Utility Commission, Staff Report, Docket LC 86 (public meeting April 28, 2026). Link
  5. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
  7. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link