Nevada natural gas case study, Las Vegas, Nevada. October 2026

Las Vegas-area natural gas capacity: the utility expects a supply shortfall from the 2026-2027 gas year and was still securing firm pipeline capacity

Southwest Gas said that long-term firm transportation and supply contracts for its Southern Nevada service area are terminating and that it expects a resource shortfall beginning in the 2026-2027 gas year; at its filing in September 2025 it had solicited offers but was still working to secure firm pipeline capacity. The PUCN approved the means by which Southwest Gas proposes to minimize the cost of supplying gas to meet demand, and approved no particular supply contracts.

More than 20%Share of required extreme weather supplies carried by the Southern Transmission System, per Southwest Gas
2026-2027 gas yearWhen Southwest Gas expects a Southern Nevada resource shortfall to begin, per Southwest Gas
80%Share of Southern Nevada demand supplied from existing tap sites in the Las Vegas area, per Southwest Gas
5 gas yearsWindow from November 2026 through October 2031 that Southwest Gas is trying to cover, per Southwest Gas

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated .

Metro used: the Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV metropolitan statistical area, as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023): Clark County. The gas distribution utility in the record is Southwest Gas Corporation (Southwest Gas). Its 2026-2028 Triennial Integrated Resource Plan, before the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada (PUCN), gives figures for its Southern Nevada service area, which covers the Las Vegas valley and may extend beyond Clark County, so the Southern Nevada figures below are the most local the record has and are labeled by their geography. Other gas utilities in Clark County are not established in the record.1

Key takeaways

  • Southwest Gas said in its September 2025 filing that, because long-term firm upstream transportation and firm bundled delivered supply resources are terminating, it determined it would have a resource shortfall in its Southern Nevada service area beginning in the 2026-2027 gas year, a figure for the whole Southern Nevada service area.3
  • Southwest Gas said it solicited offers for firm upstream transportation capacity and bundled supply in March 2025 and received offers from Kern River, Transwestern and El Paso, but that at the time of its filing the acquisition was not complete and it was working to secure firm pipeline capacity; the PUCN's April 15, 2026 order records that Southwest Gas "is currently working to secure firm capacity agreements", which restates the September 2025 position and is not a later update; the record read does not show whether the agreements have since been signed.34
  • The PUCN said in an order dated April 15, 2026, restated in a Modified Final Order dated May 29, 2026, that it approves for the three-year action plan period the means by which Southwest Gas proposes to minimize the estimated cost of supplying gas sufficient to meet demand, and that it approves the company's normal weather and extreme peak day demand forecasts for the plan; the order approves no particular supply contract.4
  • Southwest Gas said its Southern Transmission System accounts for more than 20% of the required gas supplies during an extreme weather event, and that its current Las Vegas tap sites and the Lamb Tap Project cannot meet customer demand without that system; its replacement is not scheduled for the 2026-2028 action plan period.25
  • Southwest Gas said its Lamb Tap Project, a new interconnect with Kern River in North Las Vegas, is needed to serve projected extreme weather demands starting in the 2025-2026 heating season and was already underway; the PUCN said it will not award a prudency determination in the plan and will decide prudency in a general rate case.25
  • EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists no planned natural gas-fired generator in Clark County, and no Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pipeline notice since January 1, 2025 names the county.8

Which parts of the record fall inside the Las Vegas metro?

Southwest Gas said its Southern Nevada service area can be served directly from three interstate pipelines, Kern River Gas Transmission Company, Transwestern Pipeline Company and El Paso Natural Gas Company; Transwestern and El Paso gas is delivered through Southwest Gas Transmission Company to the company's roughly 80-mile Southern Transmission System, which delivers to the City of Las Vegas and surrounding areas, while Kern River delivers directly at tap sites in the valley.23

Where Item in the record
Inside the metro, division level The Southern Nevada resource shortfall; tap sites, the Lamb Tap Project, the L Line and the Southern Transmission System serving the Las Vegas valley
Outside the metro, system context Northern Nevada: Great Basin's 2026 Expansion and the Carson, North Tahoe and South Tahoe laterals; the Arizona/Nevada border receipt point
Unclear Other gas utilities in Clark County

Items in Southwest Gas's 2026-2028 Triennial Integrated Resource Plan record by whether they fall inside the Las Vegas metro (OMB delineation). Source: Southwest Gas filing of September 2025 and PUCN orders.1

System context: the Northern Nevada incremental capacity of 7,886 Dth per day that Southwest Gas sought from Great Basin is for its Northern Nevada and Northern California service areas and is not part of the Las Vegas metro.4

Has Las Vegas had gas supply problems since 2020?

The PUCN recorded Southwest Gas's statement that historical curtailments of its firm delivered supply products are both rare and have not negatively impacted its ability to provide reliable service; the order identifies no supply event, and none was found in the record read.4

How much spare gas capacity does Las Vegas have on the coldest day?

Major natural gas pipelines serving Las Vegas N Kern River Kern River Transwestern Transwestern El Paso Natural Gas El Paso Natural Gas Other transmission pipelines in the EIA layer (interstate and intrastate; unlabeled) Pipeline named in a verified claim on this page (labeled, one color each) Metro counties (boundary used on this page) Major highways (for orientation)
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving Las Vegas. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

Southwest Gas defines a resource shortfall as contracted firm transportation, storage and bundled supply that are insufficient for its forecasted extreme weather design day demands.3 Commission Staff said that the company's extreme peak day demand forecasts rest on the coldest heating degree day occurrence since 1988, and the PUCN approved the forecasts for the plan while directing a second scenario using a different historical winter day period in the next plan.4

The filing text read gives no design day volume and no reserve figure for Southern Nevada or Clark County, so the margin on the coldest day is not established here and is not estimated. What the record does say is where gas comes from: about 80% of Southern Nevada demand is supplied from existing tap sites in the Las Vegas area, the Lone Mountain and Centennial taps are both nearing their maximum capacity, and the Southern Transmission System accounts for more than 20% of required supplies in an extreme weather event. Southwest Gas also said it cannot expect to reliably flow gas from both Transwestern and El Paso at the same time, because both deliver at the same location at different pressures and the gas must travel a long distance.23

What is driving new natural gas demand?

Southwest Gas said the Lamb Tap Project is driven by capacity requirements, to meet projected customer demand that will exceed the current system capacity in the northeast Las Vegas valley. The record read names no data center, power plant or industrial load with a service date. A search of other official records found no further documented gas load in Clark County: EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists no planned natural gas-fired generator there, and a search of Federal Register notices of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission since January 1, 2025 found no pipeline notice naming the county.28

Are upgrades arriving in time?

Southwest Gas said the Lamb Tap Project, two interconnections on Kern River with about three miles of 24-inch high-pressure pipeline, was underway at its filing; Commission Staff said the company had incurred approximately 30 percent of the estimated cost before it filed for approval. The PUCN found that the Lamb Tap and Grand Teton projects meet the statutory requirements for new high-pressure facilities but, because construction began before approval, said it will not award a prudency determination in this docket.25

The PUCN approved the L Line Project, which replaces about three miles of 1956 pipe south of Horizon Ridge for completion by July 3, 2028, with a not to exceed cost cap of $8.5 million. Southwest Gas said the Southern Transmission System Replacement Project, about 70 miles of new pipe, is planned for a time beyond the action plan period, and the PUCN said it will not determine prudence at this point. For the Southern Nevada shortfall itself, the record read shows a purchasing process, not a project: the PUCN approved the means of supply procurement and not particular contracts, so the supply is neither an approved nor a scheduled fix in the sense of Outlook Scale v2.3.35

What does this mean for business gas costs?

The PUCN said it will decide the prudency of the Lamb Tap and Grand Teton projects in a general rate case or alternative ratemaking application, and it stressed in its order the importance of accurate and robust cost estimates. The record read gives no allocation of costs among customer classes, and this page states no bill impact.5

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

The Bureau of Consumer Protection told the PUCN that Southwest Gas's curtailment order is based primarily on customer class, beginning with Priority-5 customers (steam-electric generating plants) and progressing through to Priority-1 customers (residential customers); Southwest Gas said its curtailment plan is consistent with the state's administrative code. The tariff itself was not read for this page.4

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 outlook forecasts equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal temperatures over the Southwest, a discussion that names regions and not counties, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%.B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.A1 These are national and regional facts, not statements about the utility's system, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

What is the outlook for Las Vegas gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Las Vegas-area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): Southwest Gas expects a Southern Nevada resource shortfall from the 2026-2027 gas year as long-term contracts end, and its replacement supply was not yet contracted at its filing, though the figures are for its whole Southern Nevada service area. Documented risk factors: concentration (the Southern Transmission System carries more than 20% of required supplies in an extreme weather event, per Southwest Gas). Three developments would change the assessment: Southwest Gas's executed firm transportation agreements and supply for the window from November 2026, as reported in any filing or order; the scheduling of the Southern Transmission System Replacement Project in a future plan; Southwest Gas's next Triennial Integrated Resource Plan with the multiple forecast scenarios the PUCN directed.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What should Las Vegas-area facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Which service. Confirm whether each site takes sales service or transportation service from Southwest Gas and where it falls in the curtailment priorities the Bureau of Consumer Protection described.
  • Third-party supply. If a site buys bundled delivered supply, confirm the supplier holds firm primary-point rights to the Las Vegas receipt points; the Bureau of Consumer Protection raised the lack of verification as a concern, and the PUCN did not adopt its recommendation.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Upcoming proceedings. Track Southwest Gas's Southern Nevada supply agreements and its next Triennial Integrated Resource Plan.

Frequently asked questions

Will Las Vegas businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The record does not show a shortage. Southwest Gas said it expects a resource shortfall in its Southern Nevada service area beginning in the 2026-2027 gas year as long-term contracts end and was securing replacement capacity; the PUCN identified no supply event. This page makes no prediction about outages.

Is there spare gas capacity in Las Vegas on the coldest day?

The filing text read gives no design day volume or reserve margin for Southern Nevada or Clark County, so the margin is not established. Southwest Gas said its tap sites are nearing maximum capacity and that its Southern Transmission System carries more than 20% of required supplies in an extreme weather event.

Did the Nevada PUCN approve Southwest Gas's gas plan?

The PUCN granted the plan in part and denied it in part. It approved the means of procuring supply and the demand forecasts for the three-year action plan period, approved the L Line Project with a cost cap, and did not award prudency determinations for projects already under construction.

Is new industrial or power demand driving gas use in Las Vegas?

Southwest Gas said the Lamb Tap Project is driven by projected customer demand exceeding system capacity in northeast Las Vegas. The record names no data center or power plant load with a service date, and EIA's September 2026 inventory lists no planned gas-fired generator in Clark County.

Who is cut first if Southwest Gas must curtail service?

The Bureau of Consumer Protection described a curtailment order that begins with steam-electric generating plants and ends with residential customers; Southwest Gas said its plan is consistent with state rules. The tariff itself was not read for this page.

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Notes

  1. Southwest Gas Corporation, 2026-2028 Triennial Integrated Resource Plan filing (Public Utilities Commission of Nevada Docket No. 25-09010; original filing September 17 and 18, 2025, amended September 24, 2025), prepared direct testimony, PDF 283 and PDF 294. Utility statements. The filing is a scanned PDF and its text was read by optical character recognition (OCR); every quote was checked against that text. Metro county from metro_counties.csv; classification in lasvegas_metro_classification.csv. [LAS-01, LAS-02] ↩
  2. Same filing, PDF 177 and 178 (Lamb Tap Project), PDF 187 (Southern Transmission System) and PDF 295 (Southern Transmission System and pipeline constraints). Utility statements. [LAS-08 to LAS-13, LAS-27] ↩
  3. Same filing, PDF 283, PDF 293, PDF 294 and PDF 296 (Southern Nevada 2025 long-term resource acquisition process). Utility statements. [LAS-02 to LAS-07] ↩
  4. Public Utilities Commission of Nevada, Order, Docket No. 25-09010 (held April 14, 2026; issued April 15, 2026), PDF 7, 10, 12, 13, 14, and the Modified Final Order (held May 26, 2026; dated May 29, 2026; a scan read by OCR), PDF 3 and the same findings pages. Commission orders; statements of Southwest Gas, Staff and the Bureau of Consumer Protection within them are reported as theirs. The quotes used from the April order were checked by code against the Modified Final Order's text, with differences only from OCR errors in the scan. [LAS-16 to LAS-20, LAS-25, LAS-26, LAS-36] ↩
  5. Same orders, PDF 35 and 38 (Lamb Tap and Grand Teton), PDF 43 and 44 (L Line, Southern Transmission System Replacement). [LAS-14, LAS-15, LAS-21, LAS-22] ↩
  6. Not established, and left out of the page: the volume and expiry dates of the terminating Southern Nevada contracts and the shortfall volume (not in the text read; parts of the filing are confidential); whether the firm transportation agreements have been signed since September 2025; a design day volume or reserve margin for Southern Nevada or Clark County; the tariff curtailment sequence and cost allocation among customer classes; delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (Kern River, Transwestern and El Paso postings were not captured; next capture about March 2027); other gas utilities in Clark County.
  7. R1 searches: the orders and filing text for supply events since January 1, 2020 (none found); no pipeline critical notices or EIA weekly archive entries were captured for Nevada.
  8. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet, operator-reported planned dates), filtered to Clark County by code, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by county phrase, both computed by code. A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [LAS-23, LAS-24] ↩
  9. R3 not established beyond the above, and left out of the claims (searches run: EIA-860M, a Federal Register search of FERC notices by county, and the filing and order text): Nevada Division of Environmental Protection and Clark County Department of Environment and Sustainability air permit records, Kern River, Transwestern and El Paso interconnection and FERC eLibrary filings, none of which a script could save; news reports are leads only and are not claimed.

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
  2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
  3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

  1. Southwest Gas Corporation, 2026-2028 Triennial Integrated Resource Plan filing, Public Utilities Commission of Nevada Docket No. 25-09010. Link
  2. Public Utilities Commission of Nevada, Order (April 15, 2026) and Modified Final Order (May 29, 2026), Docket No. 25-09010. Link
  3. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  4. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
  5. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link