Raleigh-area natural gas capacity: the main utility's 2026-27 coldest-day margin is -1.71%

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated October 2026.

Metro used: the Raleigh-Cary, NC metropolitan statistical area, as the federal Office of Management and Budget defined it in Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023). The page covers the two gas utilities that serve it, Enbridge Gas North Carolina and Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc. (Piedmont), using records filed with the North Carolina Utilities Commission (the Commission).¹ Municipal gas systems in the metro, if any, were not read.

Key takeaways

Who serves the Raleigh area?

Enbridge Gas North Carolina serves Wake and Franklin counties, and Piedmont serves Johnston County, on the Commission's service-area map.¹¹ Neither utility publishes figures for the Raleigh area alone, so the figures on this page cover each utility's whole system.¹⁴ Two of the fixes discussed below sit outside the area, the Moriah Energy Center in Person County and the Mountain Valley Southgate pipeline from Virginia, but they matter here because they supply Enbridge's system.¹⁵ The Cary Energy Center LNG facility is on Enbridge Gas North Carolina's system in Wake County.¹³

Has Raleigh had gas supply problems since 2020?

The filings we reviewed describe no curtailment (a forced cut in gas service) at either utility during Winter Storms Fern and Gianna in January 2026. Enbridge Gas North Carolina said it used LNG withdrawals from its Cary Energy Center to manage increased demand and avoid higher-priced daily delivered gas purchases.¹⁶ Piedmont said it did not need to interrupt or curtail service to any North Carolina customer in its review period, which included the same two storms.¹⁷ The filings reviewed document no supply event for these utilities since 2020. That statement covers only the filings reviewed, which are annual gas cost review testimony, not a search of event reports.¹⁸ Piedmont's testimony adds that the Public Staff recommended continued attention to the dependence on Transco for natural gas delivery to North Carolina.¹⁹

How much spare gas capacity does Raleigh have on the coldest day?

In its June 2026 testimony in its annual review of gas costs, Enbridge Gas North Carolina showed no spare capacity on the coldest day from 2026-27 on, for its whole system. Its exhibit shows a margin of 2.79% for the 2025-26 winter that just ended and negative margins in every later winter, and a negative reserve margin means assets fall short of the requirement. The table leaves out the Moriah facility and Mountain Valley capacity not yet in service.⁵

Enbridge Gas North Carolina's coldest-day requirements, available assets and reserve margins for its whole system, as filed in June 2026.²⁰ The exhibit's printed figures for 2027-28 do not agree with each other. The printed surplus line shows (20,166) dekatherms per day, but by our calculation its own total assets less its own design-day requirement is -21,166, a difference of 1,000 dekatherms per day. The printed margin of -2.27% matches the calculated value.²¹ The 2026-27 winter is the first shortfall. Enbridge Gas North Carolina has secured 90,000 of the 130,000 dekatherms per day of short-term peaking supply it needs; the other 40,000 is not shown as secured.²² Transco is the only interstate pipeline directly connected to the system. By our calculation, the exhibit's Transco firm transportation is 43% of the 2026-27 design-day requirement.⁶¹ The Cary Energy Center LNG facility's 100,000 dekatherms per day is 11%.²³

What is driving new natural gas demand?

The testimony and exhibit reviewed name no data center or gas-fired power project on Enbridge Gas North Carolina's system. The utility said its design-day demand forecast projects firm customer load growth and is used to determine total asset needs.²⁴ Piedmont said load growth in North Carolina, concentrated in residential customers, drives its rising design-day demand.²⁷ We searched the September 2026 list of planned power plants from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the EIA-860M Planned sheet, and found no planned natural gas-fired generator in Wake, Franklin or Johnston County.²⁵ A search of the Federal Register for FERC notices since January 2025 naming the three counties with a pipeline docket found none.²⁶ Data centers: as of October 28, 2026, we found no gas-fired generation, fuel cell, pipeline lateral or gas utility special contract for a data center in the metro in the official sources we could search.⁵² EIA's list, still its latest edition, shows no planned natural gas unit anywhere in North Carolina.⁵³ The Commission's dockets could not be reviewed, so filings there may not be reflected. On October 7, 2026 Duke Energy said a settlement with the North Carolina Public Staff, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and others would add protections for existing electric customers from the cost of serving data centers and other large loads.⁵⁴ It concerns electric service, not gas. Nearby: the testimony and exhibit reviewed name no such load elsewhere on Enbridge Gas North Carolina's whole system. The Moriah Energy Center in Person County, which is not in the metro, matters here only as supply for that system.⁶²

Are upgrades arriving in time?

The fixes Enbridge Gas North Carolina names arrive after the first winter of shortfall.²⁰ Moriah, an LNG facility under construction in Person County, can send out at most 200,000 dekatherms per day for about ten days; it is estimated in service in early 2027 and would enable withdrawals in winter 2027-28.⁴ Southgate is targeted for mid-2028, and the MVP Boost Project, with a 125,000 dekatherm per day precedent agreement, is expected in service by mid-2028 as well.²⁸ FERC approved the Southgate amendment on December 18, 2025, which counts as an approval under the outlook scale used on this page.²⁹ Enbridge Gas North Carolina is the sole shipper, with a 300,000 dekatherm per day precedent agreement (an agreement to use the pipeline once it is built), and the order puts the project's cost at about $524 million.⁷ Because no budget or Commission approval for Moriah is stated, this page does not treat Moriah as approved or scheduled.⁶ EQT Corporation said in its second-quarter 2026 earnings release of July 21, 2026 that it was accelerating $85 million of capital contributions to complete construction of MVP Southgate by year-end 2026.⁵⁹ On its call the next day, EQT said it had received FERC authorization to begin construction activities on MVP Southgate and had elected to accelerate construction timing into 2026.⁶⁰ These are the most recent official statements on the fix that we reviewed. They speak of construction, not of when Enbridge Gas North Carolina can use the gas. The utility's testimony of June 1, 2026 still targets mid-2028 for completion, and the outlook level is unchanged.⁸ The Public Staff said Enbridge Gas North Carolina has identified sufficient resources through the 2029-2030 winter, assuming timely completion and availability of Moriah and Southgate, and that short-term peaking resources will be needed through 2026-2027.⁹ The Commission's order of September 22, 2026 reached the same conclusion on the same assumption under current forecasts and found a capacity need within five years, but gives no figure for the shortfall and no approval of Moriah.¹⁰ By our calculation, adding the remaining peaking supply in full would lift the 2026-27 margin to 2.66%, and adding Moriah's stated maximum in full would lift 2027-28 to 19.22%; the utility states neither result.³⁰

Winter and market context

National picture. National storage inventories, the El Nino outlook, LNG exports and Henry Hub commodity prices are not evidence of a constraint in this metro, so the figures are in the note.⁶³ Regional picture. North Carolina is in EIA's East storage region, which held 900 billion cubic feet of working gas for the week ending October 16, 2026 (EIA's release of October 22, 2026).³⁶ EIA's citygate table (the price where the pipeline hands gas to the local utility) lists 6.01 dollars per thousand cubic feet for North Carolina for July 2026, the latest month saved.³⁷ The five-year storage comparison EIA states was not read. Transco posted imbalance operational flow orders (orders telling shippers to keep gas flows in balance) for its Zone 5 in each of the last three winters, covering 119, 85 and 19 days in 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26 by our own count.⁴⁰ This is a balancing measure, not a count of critical days. We place Raleigh in Zone 5 by reasoning, since the location list shows no delivery point in Wake, Franklin or Johnston County and puts every North Carolina point in Zone 5.³⁹ The pipeline posting pages for Pine Needle, Enbridge LINK and Mountain Valley, saved October 27, 2026, list no notices, and the public record does not show notices for them.⁴¹

Winter weather and NOAA's outlook

NOAA's October 15, 2026 outlook leans slightly toward warmer-than-normal weather for the Raleigh area, which does not rule out cold days, and gives probabilities for a three-month average, not a forecast of specific days.⁵⁶ Heating degree days (a measure of how cold the weather was) at Raleigh-Durham International Airport from November to March were 80%, 86% and 96% of the 1991-2020 normal in winters 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26.⁵⁵

Heating degree days from November to March at Raleigh-Durham International Airport, compared with the 1991-2020 normal. NOAA data, added up by us.

Policy context

North Carolina law sets limits on city ordinances about energy service connections. North Carolina Session Law 2023-58 adds a section to the General Statutes saying a city shall not adopt an ordinance that prohibits, or has the effect of prohibiting, the connection of an energy service based on the type or source of energy, or the sale or installation of certain appliances.⁴⁵ The General Assembly's bill history records that House Bill 130 became law without the Governor's signature on June 26, 2023.⁴⁶ Piedmont's testimony says the Commission's December 9, 2024 order approved a joint planning process for the Duke Energy utilities and Piedmont for extreme cold weather events. The order itself was not read.⁴⁷

What is the outlook for Raleigh-area gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Raleigh-area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): Enbridge Gas North Carolina's own table shows a shortfall against its design-day requirement for 2026-27, before the Moriah facility and Southgate pipeline. No fix in the filings reviewed is approved or scheduled ahead of that winter.⁴⁸ Documented risk factors: concentration, the Transco share given above, with Pine Needle and the Cary Energy Center LNG facility each also above 10% of the requirement. That is one factor, so it does not raise the level.²³ Three developments would change the assessment: first, Enbridge Gas North Carolina not showing the remaining peaking supply for 2026-27 as secured before the winter, which would move the assessment to High. Securing it, or the utility's next filing stating a different margin, would also change the assessment. Second, the Moriah Energy Center entering service in early 2027, a stated budget or Commission approval for it, or a delay. Third, the Southgate pipeline's in-service date moving from mid-2028, or a court or FERC action on its certificate. This rating rests on Enbridge Gas North Carolina's figures for its whole system, the closest the public record gets to Wake and Franklin counties.²⁰ Those counties hold most of the metro's population. Piedmont's record covers its whole Carolinas system and is the closest for Johnston County. It shows a margin that is thin from 2027-28 and does not raise or lower the rating.¹² Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What's new (as of October 28, 2026)

On August 12, 2026 FERC gave notice that its staff had prepared an environmental assessment of the Mountain Valley Pipeline Boost Project.⁵⁷ In August 2026 Williams said its Southeast Supply Enhancement expansion would add capacity to the Transco system by the third quarter of 2027.⁵⁸

What should Raleigh-area facilities check now?

These four checks help facilities prepare before winter. - Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff. Confirm that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise. - Which utility and rate. Confirm whether each site is served by Enbridge Gas North Carolina or Piedmont, and which rate class it is on. The Commission's service-area map shows territories by county. The filings reviewed do not show which utility serves which community inside a county. - Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible. Check that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December. - Upcoming proceedings. Track Enbridge Gas North Carolina's next annual review of gas costs before the Commission. Track any notice about the Moriah Energy Center or the Southgate pipeline.

Frequently asked questions

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

• Charlotte natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Hampton Roads natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Pennsylvania UGI Gas territory natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Philadelphia area natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Notes

1. Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc., Direct Testimony and Exhibits of Jeffrey Patton (August 3, 2026), NCUC Docket G-9, Sub 1082, PDF 8 (approximately 830,000 customers in its North Carolina service territory) and Exhibit JCP-4C (PDF 41), a whole-system schedule for North Carolina and South Carolina. A utility filing; it states no Johnston County figure. The counties are Franklin, Johnston and Wake counties, North Carolina. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc. (Enbridge Gas North Carolina) has its territory in Wake and Franklin counties on the service-area map of the North Carolina Utilities Commission, and Piedmont has its territory in Johnston County on the same map. Enbridge Gas North Carolina's figures cover its whole system, and the filing does not divide them by county. Piedmont's figures cover its whole Carolinas system.
2. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Direct Testimony of Amy H. Novinc and Rose M. Jackson (June 1, 2026, public version), North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) Docket G-5, Sub 699, Jackson Direct Exhibit 1 (PDF 44): design-day requirements, available assets, surplus (shortage) and reserve margin rows, and the footnote that the table excludes Mountain Valley Pipeline capacity not in service and the Moriah LNG facility. A utility filing; confidential passages are blank in the public version. ↩
3. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Direct Testimony of Amy H. Novinc and Rose M. Jackson (June 1, 2026, public version), NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699, Jackson direct testimony (PDF 37), peaking supply acquired (90,000 of 130,000 dekatherms per day) and the remaining 40,000 still being pursued. A utility filing. The amount is for Enbridge Gas North Carolina's whole system, as of June 2026. ↩
4. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Jackson direct testimony (PDF 40), Moriah Energy Center under construction in Person County, maximum withdrawal capability of 200,000 dekatherms per day for approximately ten days, estimated in-service date of early 2027, withdrawals in winter 2027-28, NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699 (June 1, 2026, public version). Utility statements; the testimony gives no budget for Moriah in the public version and the Commission's approval of it is not shown. The utility expects service early 2027. ↩
5. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Direct Testimony of Amy H. Novinc and Rose M. Jackson (June 1, 2026, public version), North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) Docket G-5, Sub 699, Jackson Direct Exhibit 1 (PDF 44): design-day requirements, available assets, surplus (shortage) and reserve margin rows, and the footnote that the table excludes Mountain Valley Pipeline capacity not in service and the Moriah LNG facility. A utility filing; confidential passages are blank in the public version. ↩
6. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., Jackson direct testimony (PDF 40), NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699, which gives no budget for Moriah in the public version, and the NCUC Order on Annual Review of Gas Costs, Docket G-5, Sub 699 (issued September 22, 2026, PDF 3, 9, 10 and 13): the order recites the testimony and concludes that resources are reasonable through 2029-2030 assuming Moriah and Southgate. Its text has no budget, certificate or approval wording near any mention of the Moriah Energy Center; the Commission's approval of Moriah is not shown. ↩
7. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Order Amending Certificate, Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC, Docket No. CP25-60-000 (issued December 18, 2025), PDF 1 and 2: Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc. is the sole project shipper with a precedent agreement for 300,000 dekatherms per day, and the estimated cost of the amendment project is approximately $524 million. A Commission order. ↩
8. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Jackson direct testimony (PDF 38), targeted completion date for the Southgate Project of mid-2028, and precedent agreement with Mountain Valley Pipeline for up to 300,000 dekatherms per day, NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699 (June 1, 2026, public version). Utility statements. ↩
9. North Carolina Utilities Commission, Public Staff, Testimony of Andrew R.S. Puglisi (July 24, 2026), Docket G-5, Sub 699, PDF 5 and 8: sufficient resources through the 2029-2030 winter assuming timely completion and availability of Moriah and Southgate, and short-term peaking resources needed through 2026-2027; PDF 7 (finding on the 2025-2026 design-day plan, not on the 2026-27 shortfall). Staff testimony. ↩
10. North Carolina Utilities Commission, Order on Annual Review of Gas Costs, Docket G-5, Sub 699 (issued September 22, 2026, PDF 3, 9, 10 and 13): concludes that resources are reasonable through 2029-2030 assuming Moriah and Southgate, and Finding of Fact 14 finds a capacity need within five years without stating the amount or the winter; its text has no budget, certificate or approval wording near Moriah. The order also recites the utility's testimony (90,000 of 130,000 dekatherms per day acquired, remaining 40,000 pursued, early-2027 Moriah estimate), which is a recital of testimony and not a Commission finding. Also read: the utility's letter of September 25, 2026, PDF 1, which says its rates were approved by the order. The August 31, 2026 joint proposed order is a proposal, not a Commission order. ↩
11. North Carolina Utilities Commission, Natural Gas Service Areas in North Carolina (map, May 2025). County classes are read by eye from the map, whose legend names Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc., Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Frontier Natural Gas Company, LLC and Toccoa Natural Gas; they, and a county that the map shows partly in one color is treated as unclear. County populations are the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 county estimates. Discovery Energy's EIA-176 crosswalk matched no utility to the Raleigh metro's counties. ↩
12. Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc., Direct Testimony and Exhibits of Jeffrey Patton (August 3, 2026), NCUC Docket G-9, Sub 1082, PDF 8 to 21 and Exhibit JCP-4C (PDF 41): Carolinas Design Day Demand and Supply Schedule, total firm design day demand, total capacity of 1,631,675 dekatherms per day, and projected design day shortfall of approximately 19,868 dekatherms per day from winter 2027-2028. Used for Johnston County; a utility filing for the whole Carolinas system that states no Johnston County figure. ↩
13. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Direct Testimony of Amy H. Novinc and Rose M. Jackson (June 1, 2026, public version), NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699, Jackson Direct Exhibit 1 (PDF 44) and Jackson direct testimony (PDF 36), Cary Energy Center LNG facility (Cary, Wake County). A utility filing. ↩
14. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Direct Testimony of Amy H. Novinc and Rose M. Jackson (June 1, 2026, public version), NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699, Jackson Direct Exhibit 1 (PDF 44) and Jackson direct testimony (PDF 40, Moriah); FERC Order Amending Certificate, Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC, Docket No. CP25-60-000 (December 18, 2025); Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc., Direct Testimony and Exhibits of Jeffrey Patton (August 3, 2026), Docket G-9, Sub 1082, Exhibit JCP-4C; and the Commission's Natural Gas Service Areas in North Carolina map (May 2025). ↩
15. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Jackson direct testimony (PDF 40), Moriah Energy Center under construction in Person County (NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699, June 1, 2026), and FERC Order Amending Certificate, Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC, Docket No. CP25-60-000 (December 18, 2025), PDF 2, Southgate project from Virginia to North Carolina. ↩
16. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Jackson direct testimony (PDF 36), January 2026 Winter Storms Fern and Gianna, LNG withdrawals from the Cary Energy Center, NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699 (June 1, 2026, public version). A utility filing; it describes no curtailment. ↩
17. Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc., Direct Testimony of Jeffrey Patton (August 3, 2026), NCUC Docket G-9, Sub 1082, PDF 7 (reliable service to all North Carolina customers during the review period, which included Winter Storms Gianna and Fern in January and February 2026). A utility filing. ↩
18. Not a search of event reports: no federal or state event report or EIA weekly archive keyword search was read for Raleigh or Charlotte. The utility testimony read is annual gas cost review testimony (NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699, Jackson direct testimony, PDF 36, and Piedmont Docket G-9, Sub 1082, Patton direct testimony, PDF 7 and 21). ↩
19. Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc., Direct Testimony of Jeffrey Patton (August 3, 2026), NCUC Docket G-9, Sub 1082, PDF 21, reporting the Public Staff's July 30, 2026 analysis in Docket M-100, Sub 217. The Public Staff's July 30, 2026 analysis and the utilities' May 15, 2026 post-season report in Docket M-100, Sub 217 were not read (see the Piedmont testimony). ↩
20. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Direct Testimony of Amy H. Novinc and Rose M. Jackson (June 1, 2026, public version), North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) Docket G-5, Sub 699, Jackson Direct Exhibit 1 (PDF 44): design-day requirements, available assets, surplus (shortage) and reserve margin rows, and the footnote that the table excludes Mountain Valley Pipeline capacity not in service and the Moriah LNG facility. A utility filing; confidential passages are blank in the public version. ↩
21. Calculations from the exhibits' printed rows: margin = (assets - requirement) / requirement. For Enbridge Gas North Carolina's 2027-28 winter the printed surplus line is (20,166) while total assets less the design-day requirement is -21,166; the printed reserve margin of -2.27% matches the calculated value, so the surplus line is read as differing by 1,000 dekatherms per day. Jackson Direct Exhibit 1 (PDF 44), NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699 (June 1, 2026). ↩
22. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Jackson Direct Exhibit 1 (PDF 44), Short-Term Peaking Service row (120,000, 90,000 and 100,000 dekatherms per day for 2025-26, 2026-27 and 2027-28), and Jackson direct testimony (PDF 37), 90,000 of 130,000 dekatherms per day acquired, remaining 40,000 pursued, NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699 (June 1, 2026, public version). A utility filing. ↩
23. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Direct Testimony of Amy H. Novinc and Rose M. Jackson (June 1, 2026, public version), NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699, Jackson Direct Exhibit 1 (PDF 44) and Jackson direct testimony (PDF 34 to 36): Transco is the sole direct interstate pipeline interconnection and most firm transportation and storage capacity is obtained from it; Cary Energy Center withdrawal capability of approximately 100,000 dekatherms per day. Percentages calculated. ↩
24. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Jackson direct testimony (PDF 37), design-day demand forecast projecting firm customer load growth, NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699 (June 1, 2026, public version). A utility filing. ↩
25. Lines computed from EIA-860M (September 2026, Planned sheet); the EIA-860M file is. The sheet lists no planned natural gas-fired generator in North Carolina at all. EIA-860M is a preliminary monthly inventory of utility-scale generators and does not list data centers or gas-fired units not yet reported to EIA; absence from it is not proof that none is planned. The Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress integrated resource plan and North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality air permit filings were not searched (no scriptable search found). ↩
26. Lines computed from the Federal Register search of FERC notices by county, (14 county searches for the two metros; none found). ↩
27. Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc., Rebuttal Testimony of Jeffrey Patton (September 25, 2026), NCUC Docket G-9, Sub 1082, PDF 5: customer and load growth in North Carolina, concentrated in the residential sector, drives the projected increase in design day demand. A utility filing. ↩
28. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Jackson direct testimony (PDF 38 to 40), Moriah in-service estimate and winter 2027-28 withdrawals, Southgate targeted for mid-2028, and MVP Boost Project with a 125,000 dekatherm per day precedent agreement expected in service by mid-2028, NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699 (June 1, 2026, public version). Utility statements. ↩
29. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Order Amending Certificate, Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC, Docket No. CP25-60-000 (issued December 18, 2025), PDF 1 and 2. A Commission order. The testimony's mid-2028 target is the utility's. The order's own text on construction authorization (the order notes no request to begin construction had been submitted) and later FERC construction letters and court actions were not read, and news reports of them are leads only. ↩
30. Calculations from the exhibits' printed rows: margin = (assets - requirement) / requirement, from Jackson Direct Exhibit 1 (PDF 44), NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699 (June 1, 2026). The 2026-27 and 2027-28 illustrations that add 40,000 dekatherms per day of peaking or Moriah's 200,000 dekatherms per day are Discovery Energy's own and the utility states neither result. The 2026-27 illustration adds the remaining 40,000 dekatherms per day of peaking supply Enbridge Gas North Carolina is pursuing to assets of 899,336, and the 2027-28 illustration adds 200,000 dekatherms per day, Moriah's stated maximum withdrawal capability as if in service, to assets of 909,336. The added supply is assumed available in full, and Southgate and MVP Boost are not added. ↩
31. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026 (listed under Market and weather sources), temperature discussion.
32. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026 (listed under Market and weather sources), sea surface temperature forecast discussion.
33. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, October 6, 2026 (listed under Market and weather sources).
34. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026, natural gas storage section (listed under Market and weather sources).
35. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026, U.S. energy market indicators table (listed under Market and weather sources).
36. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026 (listed under Market and weather sources); lines computed, East region, week ending October 16, 2026. ↩
37. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in North Carolina, monthly (listed under Market and weather sources); lines computed. ↩
38. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily, release of October 21, 2026 (listed under Market and weather sources); lines computed.
39. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Index of Customers and location list, saved October 27, 2026 and applied to this metro through the location list: every North Carolina and South Carolina location on it (39 locations) is in Zone 5, and none is listed in Wake, Franklin or Johnston County, so the Raleigh zone is inferred. ↩
40. Discovery Energy's own count, built from Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC critical notices saved October 27, 2026: Operational Flow Order Notice 14034522 (October 30, 2023) through Notice 14419032 (March 26, 2024), 12 runs over 119 days in winter 2023-24; Operational Flow Order Notice 15139001 (November 19, 2024) through Notice 15434250 (February 27, 2025), also Notice 14994057 (October 2, 2024), 6 runs over 85 days in 2024-25; Operational Flow Order Notice 16336705 (December 11, 2025) through Notice 16661354 (March 16, 2026), 5 runs over 19 days in 2025-26. A run is a continuous stretch of days under one or more orders; an open-ended order is closed by the matching terminate notice or, if there is none, by the next order notice. Notices are paraphrased and not quoted. Other Transco notice types (delivery location reductions, force majeure, alerts) were not counted for this metro. The difference between winters partly reflects how Transco wrote its notices: long orders in 2023-24 and 2024-25 and many short orders in 2025-26. Imbalance orders are a different measure from critical days. By winter, Zone 5 imbalance order coverage was: 2023-24, 12 separate runs over 119 days, notices posted October 30, 2023 through March 26, 2024; 2024-25, 6 runs over 85 days, November 19, 2024 through February 27, 2025, also October 2, 2024; 2025-26, 5 runs over 19 days, December 11, 2025 through March 16, 2026. A run is a continuous stretch of days under one or more Zone 5 imbalance orders. An imbalance order is a balancing requirement, which is a different measure from critical days. ↩
41. Pipeline posting pages (Transco 1Line, Pine Needle LNG, Enbridge LINK, Mountain Valley Pipeline) saved October 27, 2026 list no notices in their static pages (JavaScript portals or no notice list). Columbia Gas Transmission's host could not be reached. ↩
42. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 14034522, October 30, 2023, through Notice 14419032, March 26, 2024 (Zone 5 imbalance orders; Discovery Energy's own count, 12 runs, 119 days).
43. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 15139001, November 19, 2024, through Notice 15434250, February 27, 2025; also Notice 14994057, October 2, 2024 (Zone 5 imbalance orders; Discovery Energy's own count, 6 runs, 85 days).
44. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 16336705, December 11, 2025, through Notice 16661354, March 16, 2026 (Zone 5 imbalance orders; Discovery Energy's own count, 5 runs, 19 days).
45. North Carolina General Assembly, Session Law 2023-58 (House Bill 130), Section 1(a) (PDF 1), adding G.S. 160A-203.3 (listed under Policy sources). ↩
46. North Carolina General Assembly, Bill Lookup, 2023 House Bill 130, history page (listed under Policy sources): became law without signature, June 26, 2023. ↩
47. Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc., Direct Testimony of Jeffrey Patton (August 3, 2026), NCUC Docket G-9, Sub 1082, PDF 19, describing the Commission's December 9, 2024 order in Docket M-100, Sub 217 approving a joint planning process for Piedmont, Duke Energy Progress and Duke Energy Carolinas for extreme cold weather events; stated through a utility filing, the order itself was not read. ↩
48. Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., d/b/a Enbridge Gas North Carolina, Jackson Direct Exhibit 1 (PDF 44) and Jackson direct testimony (PDF 38 to 40), NCUC Docket G-5, Sub 699 (June 1, 2026); Moriah in-service estimate early 2027, Southgate targeted mid-2028; FERC Order Amending Certificate, Docket No. CP25-60-000 (December 18, 2025); NCUC Order of September 22, 2026, Docket G-5, Sub 699 (no budget or approval wording near Moriah). ↩
49. Not established, and left out of the page: who pays (cost allocation among customer classes); tariff interruption priorities and penalties for both utilities; delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (next capture about March 2027); Moriah's budget and Commission approval (the Commission's September 22, 2026 order has none); the amount and winter of the capacity need the Commission found; contract end dates for either utility's firm capacity (none appear in the public testimony read); Piedmont's South Carolina operations and any county gas authority or municipal system record; and the design day calculations behind either utility's schedule.
50. New-load search partly established: the EIA-860M sheet and the Federal Register FERC search were read; the PJM and Duke queues, state air permits, North Carolina Utilities Commission and economic development filings for data centers or large gas loads, and municipal records were not searched. News reports (not claimed) mention a Duke Energy gas-fired plant in Person County that Enbridge Gas North Carolina would serve through its Moriah project; Person County is outside both metros and no filing was read, so it is a lead, not a claim.
51. Supply-event search not fully established: no federal or state event report or EIA weekly archive keyword search was read for Raleigh or Charlotte. Pipeline notice counts partly established: Transco's critical notices were counted (Zone 5 imbalance operational flow orders, described in the Transco notice count note above), but the Pine Needle, Enbridge LINK and Mountain Valley pages saved October 27, 2026 list no notices in their static pages (JavaScript portals); Columbia Gas Transmission's host could not be reached. The Public Staff's July 30, 2026 analysis and the utilities' May 15, 2026 post-season report in Docket M-100, Sub 217 were not read (see the Piedmont testimony described above).
52. Searches of October 28, 2026: EIA-860M September 2026 (North Carolina planned sheet, code filter); Federal Register FERC notices July 30 to October 28, 2026 for the county names and for the pipelines serving North Carolina and South Carolina; Duke Energy newsroom; Williams project page and fact sheet; EQT second-quarter 2026 release and transcript. Not reviewed: North Carolina Utilities Commission dockets (names AI crawlers), FERC eLibrary, Transco and East Tennessee postings, grid queues. ↩
53. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M, September 2026 inventory, Planned sheet, filtered to North Carolina (40 rows, no natural gas unit); saved October 28, 2026. Government data; the October-labelled file was not available. ↩
54. Duke Energy, Duke Energy protects customers from data center costs (news release, October 7, 2026), NCUC (docket not stated in release), dated 2026-10-07, saved 2026-10-28; News release, first paragraph. ↩
55. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) StnData web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals, November to March of winters 2023-24 to 2025-26, retrieved October 26 to 28, 2026: RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. Sums computed. Heating degree days from November to March at Raleigh-Durham International Airport were 2,186, 2,356 and 2,652 in winters 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26 against a 1991-2020 normal of 2,749 (NOAA data, added up by us). ↩
56. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, seasonal temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026, shapefiles lead1 (November to January) and lead2 (December to February) from ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/GIS/us_tempprcpfcst/seastemp_202610.zip, read at each metro's coordinates. The map gives the favored category and the lower edge of its probability band; NOAA's own explanation (Link) keeps near-normal at 33.3% and gives the opposite category the rest, so the above-normal figure is a floor and the below-normal figure a ceiling. For both November 2026 to January 2027 and December 2026 to February 2027, the outlook gives the Raleigh area at least a 33% chance of above-normal temperatures (a slight lean), about 33% near-normal and no more than 34% below-normal. These are NOAA's probabilities for a three-month average, not a forecast of specific days. ↩
57. Federal Register / FERC, Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC; Notice of Availability of the Environmental Assessment for the Proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline Boost Project (FR Doc 2026-16435, Docket CP26-14-000), dated 2026-08-12, saved 2026-10-28; Federal Register Vol. 91, No. 154 (Wednesday, August 12, 2026), page 52048. The Boost Project would add about 600,000 dekatherms (dth, a unit of gas energy) per day of service on the existing Mountain Valley mainline in West Virginia and Virginia. ↩
58. Williams Companies (Transco operator), Southeast Supply Enhancement fact sheet, August 2026 update, CP25-10-000 (per operator page), dated 2026-08, saved 2026-10-28; PDF page 1. The expansion would add about 1.6 million dth per day of capacity to the Transco system. ↩
59. EQT Corporation, EQT Q2 2026 Earnings Release, dated 2026-07-21, saved 2026-10-28; PDF page 1. ↩
60. EQT Corporation, EQT Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call Transcript, dated 2026-07-22, saved 2026-10-28; PDF page 4. ↩
61. Supports the 43% share in the Transco paragraph under "How much spare gas capacity does Raleigh have on the coldest day?": Transco firm transportation of 390,743 of 914,961 dekatherms per day of the 2026-27 design-day requirement, our calculation. ↩
62. Person County is outside the Raleigh-Cary metro. News reports (not claimed) mention a Duke Energy gas-fired plant in Person County that Enbridge Gas North Carolina would serve through its Moriah project; no filing was read, so it is a lead, not a claim. ↩
63. National figures that do not bear on this metro: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that near-normal seasonal average temperatures are favored for much of the Southeast, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino event continuing through January to March 2027 is 80% (notes 31 and 32). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter 2% above the previous five-year average (note 33). EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook says prolonged cold could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast and lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15, 18 and 19 billion cubic feet per day for 2025, 2026 and 2027 (notes 34 and 35). EIA's Henry Hub table lists 3.28 and 3.10 dollars per million Btu for the first days reported of the week of October 19, 2026; these are gas commodity prices, not evidence of a constraint (note 38). ↩

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 27, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link
2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link
3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link
4. C1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026. Link
5. C2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in North Carolina, monthly. Link
6. C3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily, release of October 21, 2026. Link
7. D2. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notices (Zone 5 imbalance orders), notices posted October 2023 to March 2026, and Transco location list, accessed October 27, 2026. Link
8. D1. Pipeline posting pages (Transco 1Line, Pine Needle LNG, Enbridge LINK, Mountain Valley Pipeline), saved October 27, 2026; none lists notices in its static page. Link

Policy sources

Official sources saved and hashed on October 27, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes.

1. P1. North Carolina General Assembly, Session Law 2023-58 (House Bill 130), saved October 27, 2026. Link
2. P2. North Carolina General Assembly, Bill Lookup, 2023 House Bill 130, saved October 27, 2026. Link

Sources

1. North Carolina Utilities Commission, Docket G-5, Sub 699, Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc., annual review of gas costs (2026). Link
2. North Carolina Utilities Commission, Docket G-9, Sub 1082, Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc., annual review of gas costs (2026). Link
3. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Docket CP25-60-000, Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC, Order Amending Certificate, December 18, 2025. Link
4. North Carolina Utilities Commission, Natural Gas Service Areas in North Carolina (map, May 2025). Link
5. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.

Sources: Discovery Energy compilation from public FERC-required pipeline operational notices, capacity reports, and Indexes of Customers postings as published by the interstate pipelines serving this metro, and from public gas-utility documents. Discovery Energy is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any pipeline, utility, or regulator named on this page. All trademarks and names remain the property of their respective owners. Counts, summaries, tables, and charts are original Discovery Energy compilations; readers should verify against the cited notices. Data current as of October 27, 2026. For information only and not a guarantee of future pipeline operations, capacity, or pricing.