Hampton Roads natural gas capacity: Virginia Natural Gas says all its upstream capacity is needed on a peak day, and its compressor station is due in November 2027

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated October 2026.

Metro used: the Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC metropolitan statistical area (Hampton Roads), as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023): Camden County, North Carolina; Currituck County, North Carolina; Gates County, North Carolina; Gloucester County, Virginia; Isle of Wight County, Virginia; James City County, Virginia; Mathews County, Virginia; Surry County, Virginia; York County, Virginia; Chesapeake city, Virginia; Hampton city, Virginia; Newport News city, Virginia; Norfolk city, Virginia; Poquoson city, Virginia; Portsmouth city, Virginia; Suffolk city, Virginia; Virginia Beach city, Virginia; and Williamsburg city, Virginia. The serving utility for most of the metro is Virginia Natural Gas, Inc. (VNG), whose own fact sheet names Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampton, Newport News, Williamsburg, Poquoson, James City County and York County, together 86.2% of the metro's population by Discovery Energy's population file. Portsmouth, Isle of Wight, Surry, Gloucester and Mathews are not named in the records read, and their utility is not identified. Camden, Currituck and Gates counties in North Carolina appear in the North Carolina Utilities Commission's May 2025 service area map in Piedmont Natural Gas's color, read by eye, and no Piedmont record was read, so those 3 counties (3.0% of the metro's population) are a coverage gap.¹⁶ VNG's design-day and supply figures are for its whole system and are not allocated by county; they are the most local figures the record has, and each is labeled as whole-system. Confidence is Medium.

Key takeaways

Which parts of the record fall inside Hampton Roads?

The table sorts the record by place.¹²

Utility records by whether they fall inside the metro (OMB delineation). Source: filings in the Notes.¹

System context: the Emporia compressor station and delivery point in Greensville County, VNG customers in King William, Hanover, New Kent and Charles City counties, and the City of Richmond's separate gas system are outside the metro and are not counted.

How much spare gas capacity does Hampton Roads have on the coldest day?

System supply, as of August 2022. VNG is directly connected to three distinct sources of gas supply: Columbia, Eastern Gas Transmission & Storage and its own on-system peak shaving systems.¹ Columbia's application gave VNG's design day and supply portfolio for the 2022-2023 winter as follows.¹

VNG's whole-system supply portfolio for the 2022-2023 winter as stated in Columbia's August 2022 application; shares calculated from VNG figures.¹

The design day forecast for firm demand in the same winter was 505,936 Dth/d, so the portfolio was 7.9% above it by calculation, a figure the filing gives as roughly 8%.¹ VNG also said it has many large customers on interruptible service whose supply may be restricted on the coldest winter days to maintain firm service.⁵

After the new capacity. Two tests were run on whether the 100,000 Dth/d that began on November 1, 2025 changed the peak-day picture. First, VNG's peak-day statement was filed on February 4, 2025, 270 days (calculated) before that capacity began, so it describes the system without it.¹³¹¹ Second, nothing later in the record restates the balance: VNG's response of November 3, 2025, two days after the capacity began, says that during peak day conditions disruption to EGTS could leave VNG unable to guarantee continuous service to its firm customers and does not mention the added capacity, and the Commission's March 3, 2026 final order adopts the reliability need.¹⁴ The application does not say whether its 215,515 Dth/d Columbia figure includes the 100,000 Dth/d, and VNG's own stated addition after retiring propane-air peaking is 30,000 Dth/d net.¹³¹

An earlier draft of this page grew VNG's 2022-2023 design day and portfolio forward to estimate a reserve above 5%. That calculation has been withdrawn: the February 2025 application puts firm supply at 848,740 Dth/d, at least 1.65 times the design day of almost 514,000 MMBtu it states, yet says all of that supply is needed on a peak day, so the filings are not on a common basis and no reserve can be calculated from them.¹³

What is driving new natural gas demand?

The records read name no new large load in the metro by customer and service date. VNG said its 1% growth forecast does not include potential large commercial or industrial additions from regional economic development efforts, and Columbia's application discusses offshore wind manufacturing in Hampton Roads as an economic opportunity that depends on natural gas supply, without naming a customer, a size or a service date.¹ A search of other official records found no planned natural gas-fired generator in EIA's September 2026 generator inventory for the metro's Virginia or North Carolina counties and cities, and no FERC pipeline notice naming any of them with a pipeline docket number since January 1, 2025.⁷

Are upgrades arriving in time?

Columbia and VNG signed a binding precedent agreement for VNG to receive 100,000 Dth/d of firm transportation service on the Virginia Reliability Project for 20 years, the project's full capacity.¹ FERC's November 2023 order describes the project as replacing 49.2 miles of 12-inch pipeline with 24-inch pipeline and found a need for the incremental capacity, on the evidence of the precedent agreement for 100% of it.²

Columbia told FERC on October 24, 2025 that nine facilities replacing existing pipe were placed into service on October 21, 2025, after FERC granted a partial request on September 30; on October 28, 2025 FERC's staff approved Columbia's request to place the Emporia and Petersburg compressor stations into service and commence full service; and on November 7, 2025 Columbia reported that it began providing the full project capacity of 100,000 Dth/d to the project shipper as of November 1, 2025.¹¹ These letters do not name the shipper; the order and application identify it as VNG. They give no delivered volume. TC Energy, the pipeline's owner, also says on its project page that the project is in service.³

The gas reaches Columbia at Emporia from Transco's Commonwealth Energy Connector. Transco's December 2025 FERC Watch says service commenced on November 1, 2025, and Transco certified to FERC on November 14, 2025 that the connector had been constructed and installed in compliance with the order's conditions; neither gives a delivered volume.⁸¹² The connector's 105,000 Dth/d includes 5,000 Dth/d to firm up an existing mismatch, and the 100,000 Dth/d it shares with Columbia's project is one capacity, not an addition.¹² The application said the project adds 30,000 Dth/d to VNG's portfolio after replacing about 70,000 Dth/d of retiring propane-air peaking, and the record read does not show when that retirement occurs.¹

The compressor station is the fix for the need VNG describes. It adds no upstream capacity; it raises delivery pressure at the Chesapeake Gate so VNG can move up to 181 million standard cubic feet per day from the southern part of its own system to the northern part, at an estimated cost of about $89 million.¹³¹⁴ The Commission approved it on March 3, 2026 and ordered it constructed and in service by November 1, 2027.¹⁴ VNG describes the reliability threat as real and present, so by calculation the station arrives after the first of the three winters in this page's horizon (2026-2027) and 730 days after the 100,000 Dth/d began.¹⁴

Staff's September 30, 2025 supplemental report said it remained unclear whether the project is needed to ensure the reliability of VNG's system or mainly to move part of Westrock's load from interruptible to firm service. VNG acknowledged that serving Westrock is a driver, but a secondary one, and the Commission found the project needed both to maintain reliability and resiliency and to accommodate Westrock's request.¹⁴

What does this mean for business gas costs?

The FERC order records Columbia's proposal to charge existing shippers $607,126,271 of the project's cost and the expansion shipper, VNG, $310,799,256 for the incremental capacity under incremental rates; this is an allocation among pipeline shippers and does not state how VNG allocates costs among its customer classes.² The cities of Charlottesville and Richmond protested the allocation to existing shippers.⁴ The Commission's final order puts the cost of VNG's compressor station at about $89 million; the resulting rate change is to be set in later rate proceedings, so how it is allocated to business customers is not in the record.¹⁴ VNG's rate case and tariff, which would show class allocation, were not reached for this page.

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

VNG said many large employers in Hampton Roads receive interruptible service and that on the coldest winter days their supply may be restricted to maintain firm service.⁵ The tariff interruption sequence and any penalties were not read for this page.

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

National layer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for, among other areas, the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions, a discussion that names regions and not counties, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%.^B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.^A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.^A1

Regional layer. The metro lies in EIA's East storage region, whose working gas EIA's weekly storage table, released October 22, 2026, lists at 900 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 16, 2026, up from 795 on September 11; the saved table does not carry the five-year-average comparison.^C1 The nearest regional prices EIA publishes are its Virginia citygate series, 8.33 dollars per thousand cubic feet for July 2026, the latest month in the series, and its North Carolina citygate series, 6.01 for July 2026; its Henry Hub spot price was 3.28 dollars per million Btu on the first day of the week ending October 23, 2026.^C2C3C4 The pipelines named in the record, Columbia Gas Transmission, Transco and Eastern Gas Transmission & Storage, post their critical and winter notices on sites a script could not read, so recent notices are not established here. These are national and regional facts, not statements about VNG's system, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

Policy context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level, a factor or a trigger. Sources are listed separately under Policy sources.

The Code of Virginia's Steps to Advance Virginia's Energy Plan (SAVE) Act provides that a natural gas utility may file a plan with the State Corporation Commission for infrastructure replacement projects and recovery of the related costs through a rider; the Legislative Information System page shows the section as in effect on October 26, 2026.[P1]

What is the outlook for Hampton Roads gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Hampton Roads natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): VNG told the Virginia State Corporation Commission that on a peak day all of its upstream capacity is needed, the Commission found the Chesapeake Compressor Station needed for reliability and resiliency, and that station is due in service by November 1, 2027, after the first winter of the horizon, while VNG's margin after the 100,000 Dth/d that began in November 2025 is not in the record read. Documented risk factors: none beyond the base level. Three developments would change the assessment: a State Corporation Commission filing in which VNG states its design day and supply balance after the 100,000 Dth/d, showing headroom or a shortfall; the compressor station's in-service date or any extension request; or a firm-customer curtailment or a dated low-pressure event on the EGTS interconnection that reaches firm customers.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What does the record not show about Hampton Roads?

Discovery Energy tested whether the 100,000 Dth/d that began in November 2025 changed the need VNG describes, using the record read.

• Need. VNG's February 2025 statement that all upstream capacity is needed on a peak day predates the new capacity by 270 days; its November 3, 2025 response and the Commission's March 2026 order still describe the reliability need, and none states a balance after the new capacity.¹³¹⁴
• Fix timing. The compressor station is approved and due by November 1, 2027, after the 2026-2027 winter, so the fix arrives after the need is described as present.¹⁴
• Concentration. EGTS is 74.6% of VNG's stated firm supply by calculation, and VNG is last in line on it; that reliance and the Chesapeake Gate pressure limit are the basis of the level and are not counted again as risk factors.¹³
• Risk factors. None is counted: no planned gas-fired generator or pipeline notice in the metro, no dated supply event in the public record (the low-pressure close calls are undated and no firm customer was interrupted), no design day revision, and no contract ending within the horizon or two years after it.⁷¹³¹⁴
• Not shown. VNG's design day, portfolio and margin after the expansion; whether the 215,515 Dth/d Columbia figure includes the 100,000 Dth/d; the confidential pressure record and Westrock's volume; when or whether the propane-air peaking was retired; any other facility limit inside the metro; delivered volumes or pipeline utilization; the utility serving Portsmouth, Isle of Wight, Surry, Gloucester and Mathews, and Piedmont Natural Gas's record for Camden, Currituck and Gates counties; VNG's tariff interruption sequence and class cost allocation. Staff's reports, VNG's supplemental testimony and VNG's rate case (PUR-2026-00036) were not in the files read.

What should Hampton Roads-area facilities check now?

• Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
• Which service. Confirm whether each site takes firm or interruptible service; VNG said interruptible supply may be restricted on the coldest winter days.
• Which utility. Confirm whether the site is served by Virginia Natural Gas, Piedmont Natural Gas in North Carolina, or another provider, especially in Portsmouth, Isle of Wight, Surry, Gloucester and Mathews, where the records read do not identify one.
• Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
• Upcoming filings. Track VNG's filings at the Virginia State Corporation Commission for its current design day and supply portfolio.

Frequently asked questions

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

• Pennsylvania UGI Gas territory natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Philadelphia area natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• York natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Northern New Jersey natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Notes

1. Columbia, Abbreviated Application for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity, Virginia Reliability Project, Volume I (Docket No. CP22-503-000, August 24, 2022), PDF 12, 13, 17 and 18; Resource Report 1 is Volume II. These are utility statements made through Columbia; VNG's figures are as Columbia quoted them. The application's Table 1 is partly garbled in the text extract, so quotes are taken from the prose. [VA1-HR-03, VA1-HR-06, VA1-HR-07, VA1-HR-08, VA1-HR-09, VA1-HR-10, VA1-HR-11, VA1-HR-13, VA1-HR-14, VA1-HR-16, VA1-HR-17, VA1-HR-18, VA1-HR-19] ↩
2. FERC, Order Issuing Certificates and Approving Abandonment, 185 FERC para. 61,130 (Docket Nos. CP22-502-000 and CP22-503-000, November 16, 2023), Word file as downloaded, no page numbers. The order calls VNG "Virginia Gas". A commission order. [VA1-HR-20, VA1-HR-21, VA1-HR-25, VA1-HR2-05] ↩
3. TC Energy, Virginia Reliability Project page and Needs and Benefits page (retrieved October 26, 2026). Pipeline operator statements; the in-service statement gives no date or volume. [VA1-HR-22, VA1-HR-23] ↩
4. Cities of Charlottesville and Richmond, Virginia, Joint and Several Motion to Intervene and Protest (Docket No. CP22-503-000, September 29, 2022). Party filing; it concerns cost allocation. [VA1-HR-26] ↩
5. VNG, comments to FERC (Docket Nos. CP22-502 and CP22-503, September 22, 2022); the PDF is an image, and quotes are confirmed against Windows OCR text, so a quote's match means the digits and words appear in that text. [VA1-HR-12, VA1-HR-15] ↩
6. Virginia Natural Gas, At-a-Glance fact sheet (figures reflect 2025); North Carolina Utilities Commission, Natural Gas page and Natural Gas Service Areas in North Carolina map (May 2025). County fills on the map were read by eye and are not code-verified. [VA1-HR-01, VA1-HR-02, VA1-HR-04, VA1-HR-05]
7. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet), filtered by code to the metro's counties and cities, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by place name, both computed by code. A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [VA1-HR-27, VA1-HR-28, VA1-HR-29, VA1-HR-30] ↩
8. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, FERC Watch (December 1, 2025), Authorization to Commence Service for the Commonwealth Energy Connector Project, Docket No. CP22-502-000. A pipeline operator customer notice. [VA1-HR-24] ↩
9. Not established, and left out of the page: VNG's design day, supply portfolio and margin after the expansion (the February 2025 application states firm supply and a design day on bases that do not reconcile, and no later VNG balance was read); whether the 215,515 Dth/d Columbia figure includes the 100,000 Dth/d; the confidential pressure record and Westrock's firm volume (redacted in the public version); Staff's reports, VNG's supplemental direct testimony and the rate case PUR-2026-00036 (not in the files read); whether and when the propane-air peaking was retired; facility-level limits inside the metro other than the Chesapeake Gate pressure limit; VNG's tariff interruption sequence and class cost allocation; delivery-point utilization and delivered volumes from pipeline postings (Columbia, Transco and Eastern Gas Transmission & Storage postings could not be read by script; next capture about March 2027); dated supply events for VNG (the records read document none); the utility serving Portsmouth, Isle of Wight, Surry, Gloucester and Mathews; and Piedmont Natural Gas's record for Camden, Currituck and Gates counties.
10. R3 not established beyond the searches in Note 7, and left out of the claims: Virginia Department of Environmental Quality air permit records, PJM interconnection queue entries and FERC eLibrary certificate filings, none of which a script could save; news reports are leads only and are not claimed.
11. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Notification of Commencement of Service (Docket No. CP22-503-000, October 24, 2025) and Notification of Commencement of Service and Affirmative Statement (November 7, 2025); FERC Office of Energy Projects, Authorization to Commence Service (October 28, 2025). Utility notices to FERC and a staff authorization letter; the notices do not name the project shipper. [VA1-HR2-01, VA1-HR2-02, VA1-HR2-03] ↩
12. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Affirmative Statement, Commonwealth Energy Connector Project (Docket No. CP22-502, November 14, 2025). A certification of construction compliance; no service date or volume. [VA1-HR2-04] ↩
13. Virginia Natural Gas, Inc., Application and Appendix, Chesapeake Compressor Project (Virginia State Corporation Commission Case No. PUR-2025-00021, filed February 4, 2025; public version), PDF 6, 7, 8 and 12. The application cover filing and John Cogburn's direct testimony of the same date were also registered; Mr. Cogburn's testimony concerns cost recovery and was not used for a claim. Utility statements; the pressure record and Westrock's volume are redacted as confidential; text extracted by code. [VA1-HR3-01, VA1-HR3-02, VA1-HR3-03, VA1-HR3-04, VA1-HR3-05, VA1-HR3-06, VA1-HR3-07, VA1-HR3-08, VA1-HR3-17] ↩
14. Virginia State Corporation Commission, Order on Motion (October 29, 2025) and Final Order (March 3, 2026); VNG, Response in Opposition to Staff's Motion to Supplement (October 6, 2025) and Response to Supplemental Staff Report (November 3, 2025), all in Case No. PUR-2025-00021. Commission orders and utility filings; Staff's views are as the orders and VNG's response describe them, because Staff's reports were not in the files read. [VA1-HR3-09, VA1-HR3-10, VA1-HR3-11, VA1-HR3-12, VA1-HR3-13, VA1-HR3-14, VA1-HR3-16, VA1-HR3-15] ↩

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25 and 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩
4. C1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026. Link ↩
5. C2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in Virginia, monthly. Link ↩
6. C3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in North Carolina, monthly. Link ↩
7. C4. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily. Link ↩

Policy sources

Official sources saved and hashed on October 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes.

1. P1. Virginia General Assembly, Code of Virginia, Title 56, Chapter 26, Steps to Advance Virginia's Energy Plan (SAVE) Act, petition to establish a SAVE plan. Link

Sources

1. FERC eLibrary, Docket Nos. CP22-502-000 and CP22-503-000 (Transco and Columbia). Link
2. Virginia State Corporation Commission, Case No. PUR-2025-00021 (Application of Virginia Natural Gas, Inc., Chesapeake Compressor Project). Link
3. Virginia Natural Gas, Our Service Area. Link
4. TC Energy, Virginia Reliability Project. Link
5. North Carolina Utilities Commission, Natural Gas. Link
6. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
7. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
8. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by place. Link