Atlanta-area gas capacity: 5% reserve margin, but the Cherokee LNG pipeline slipped a year

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Published November 2, 2026.

Metro used: the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA metropolitan statistical area, as the federal government defined it on July 21, 2023 (29 counties, 6,482,182 people in 2025). The figures come from Atlanta Gas Light Company (AGL), which delivers gas across Georgia and publishes none for the metro alone, so they cover its whole Georgia system, the closest the public record gets. Municipal gas systems in the metro were not read.¹

Key takeaways

Who serves the Atlanta area?

AGL says it serves 98 Georgia counties and 243 municipalities, and no filing read lists its service area by county.⁵ AGL's Capacity Supply Plan and its Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan cover its whole Georgia system and do not divide it by county, so the figures on this page are system-wide.¹³ AGL said the vast majority of its firm load, meaning the customers whose service is not meant to be cut first, is in its Atlanta pool, so these are the closest figures the public record gives for the metro.¹⁰ AGL's public filings give no pool-level design day or reserve margin; both are redacted (blacked out).⁴ AGL's on-system LNG plants at Cherokee and Riverdale feed its Atlanta pool, but the filings read do not state their county, so it is unclear whether they are inside the metro.⁵ Other records fall inside the metro but are not AGL's: Georgia Power Company (Georgia Power) plans three gas-fired turbines at Plant Yates in Coweta County, and EIA-860M, a federal monthly list of planned power generators, lists three 2-megawatt gas-fired units in Cobb County.¹¹ Two delivery points of Transco, an interstate pipeline that serves AGL, named ATLANTA GAS LIGHT and AGL DALTON, are in Fulton and Bartow counties, in the metro.¹² Transco's Georgia points are all in Zone 4. The Valdosta pool and the interstate pipelines upstream of Georgia are not in the metro; AGL says market growth has largely consumed the design reserve margin in the Valdosta pool.⁵

Has Atlanta had gas supply problems since 2020?

The filings we read document no firm-customer curtailment (a cut in gas deliveries) or supply failure for AGL since 2020. That is a statement about the filings read, which are planning and amendment filings, not a search of event reports. AGL said its all-time system sendout, the most gas it has delivered in one day, was 2,334,778 dekatherms on a 51 heating-degree-day day, a count of how far the day's average temperature fell below 65 degrees Fahrenheit. That compares with the plan year 1 requirement in the table below.⁴ AGL also said that ten of its top 25 highest sendout days occurred in the last three gas years. A marketer, SCANA Energy Marketing, LLC, alleged in an April 2026 complaint before the Commission that Transco issued a bracketed operational flow order on December 11, 2025 affecting deliveries into the Atlanta market for December 13, 2025.¹⁴ An operational flow order is a pipeline's order to keep gas deliveries in balance. The complaint seeks relief from penalties allocated to that marketer; it is an allegation, not a Commission finding, and states no shortfall. Transco's own Operational Flow Order Notice 16336705, December 11, 2025, is an imbalance order marked critical covering Zones 4, 5 and 6 for gas days from December 13, 2025 until December 17, 2025.¹⁵ It is the only December 2025 order covering Zone 4, and it names no shortfall. By our own count, Transco's Zone 4, the zone of all 23 Georgia points on its location list, had imbalance order coverage in each of the last three winters, in separate runs (a run is a continuous stretch of days under one or more orders); the counts are in the table under Winter and market context.¹² An imbalance order is not a count of critical days.

How much spare gas capacity does Atlanta have on the coldest day?

AGL defines its Design Day as a day with an average temperature of 10 degrees Fahrenheit in the metro Atlanta area, 55 heating degree days.¹⁶ The Commission approved on September 17, 2025 AGL's design day forecasts and the array of interstate pipeline and storage capacity it proposed, with a 5% reserve margin, a cushion of extra supply above the unadjusted design day, for each year. It also approved Additional Incremental Capacity of 2.16% in year 1, 2.3% in year 2 and 4.16% in year 3. The table shows the figures AGL filed in July 2025; plan year 1 runs from October 2025 to September 2026. The LNG column is our calculation, using AGL's stated method: the requirement less the interstate range. The approved percentages are shares of the unadjusted design day, from the Commission's September 2025 order.

Design day requirement, pipeline supply, implied LNG supply and approved reserve for each plan year, across AGL's whole system.¹⁷

By our calculation from AGL's stated percentages, on an implied unadjusted design day of about 2,767,764 dekatherms, the 5% reserve is about 138,388 dekatherms per day in plan year 1, and the Additional Incremental Capacity is about 59,784.¹⁸ Together, the margin the Commission approved is about 198,172 dekatherms per day. AGL itself said a 5% margin would be about 140,000 dekatherms per day. AGL planned 560,000 dekatherms per day of Cherokee LNG sendout in plan year 1, which is 18.9% of the plan year 1 requirement by our calculation.¹⁹ The plan uses every piece of operating vaporization equipment, which turns the liquid back into gas, until the new vaporization equipment is installed. AGL listed 400,000 from Riverdale LNG, 140,000 from Macon LNG and up to 800,000 from Cherokee LNG upon full completion. AGL said a disruption of the Southern Natural Gas feed into the Riverdale part of its system would lose up to 260,000 Mcf (thousand cubic feet) of flowing capacity.⁵ It said that is at least 10% of its projected system firm gas supply need on a Design Day. It also said the whole Riverdale complex is about 18% of the supply feeding its Atlanta pool. AGL releases capacity to gas sellers called certificated marketers, who use it to serve firm customers in Georgia's retail choice program.²⁰ Under the outlook scale, capacity left to marketers by design is not a shortfall, and this page counts none as one.

What is driving new natural gas demand?

AGL's demand forecast adds some firm load but includes none from data centers that lack a commitment. New gas-fired power plants are planned in the metro, but the filings read do not tie them to AGL's system. AGL expects about 17,400 more billing units, adding roughly 28,500 dekatherms of firm load on a Design Day, for its whole system.¹¹ Interruptible-to-firm conversions in its last plan period, which are customers moving from service that can be cut first to firm service, totaled 27,401 dekatherms per day of new firm load, which AGL says is 20% of a 5% system-wide reserve margin. EIA's September 2026 inventory lists three planned natural gas-fired generators at Plant Yates in Newnan, Coweta County, 1,448.4 megawatts nameplate together, for February 2027 (under construction) and December 2027 (planned). Georgia Power's Fourth Semi-Annual Construction Monitoring Report (August 2026) gives other dates: December 21, 2026 for Unit 8 and May 1 and August 1, 2027 for Units 9 and 10.²² The Commission's order of August 29, 2024 granted their certification. Georgia Power said the three dual-fuel units take gas through its existing firm transportation for Units 6 and 7 and a new lateral (a branch pipeline) off Transco, and that it proposed no added firm gas capacity from Transco.²³ It said the units run on ultra-low sulfur diesel during peak winter and summer periods if natural gas is unavailable. Mechanical completion of the lateral was achieved in December 2025. No filing read ties the units to AGL's system or to a remedy AGL would build, so this page reports them and does not treat them as new load arriving ahead of a fix. A Federal Register search of notices from FERC, the federal energy regulator, since January 1, 2025 for the 29 metro counties found no pipeline certificate notice.¹¹ Data centers: As of October 28, 2026, we found no gas-fired plant, pipeline lateral or special gas contract serving a data center on Atlanta Gas Light's system in the official records we searched.²⁴ AGL said in July 2025 that its forecast includes no firm load from data centers or other large customers without a commitment or substantive dialogue.²¹ It said additional data center loads could become customers that are unknown at this time, and that it cannot commit to serving them if that encumbers its system and stated reserve margin capacity. For the plan due in 2028, the stipulation provides extra capacity for economic development, typical interruptible-to-firm conversions, load growth and contingency planning. Nearby: The Georgia commission's order of December 19, 2025 approved new combined-cycle gas units at Plant Bowen in Bartow County and Plant Wansley in Heard County, with a commercial operation date of November 1, 2029 for both.²⁵ The order does not say how their gas is delivered, and the filings do not show the units are on AGL's system, so they do not change the rating.

Are upgrades arriving in time?

The Commission approved the expansion on November 18, 2021.⁸ AGL said in May 2024 that the second tank was operational and that replacement of the liquefaction train, the equipment that cools gas into a liquid, was under way.²⁶ AGL's August 2026 report says liquefaction commissioning was completed and final commissioning of vaporization is on target for the fourth quarter of 2026. That is before the 2026-27 winter's plan year 2, which assumes 600,000 dekatherms per day of Cherokee sendout, the existing 400,000 plus 200,000 added, by our calculation.⁴⁴ AGL said in May 2024 that Cumming to Commerce must be completed by 2028 to carry the full Cherokee LNG capacity and meet 2028 projected gas supply requirements on a Design Day.⁶ The sentence names the year, not a winter. AGL also said Commerce to McGinnis Ferry Road must be completed by 2029 to maintain minimum system operating pressures under Design Day conditions for its area. Its March 2026 response gives original gas-on dates of 2028 and 2029 and projected dates of 2029 and 2030. A new route was needed after constructability, road right-of-way and regulatory challenges. The Cumming to Hall County segment was placed in service on May 23, 2025.²⁷ The filings read do not show a design-day gap in the approved plan years from the pipeline timing. The plan years the Commission approved run through September 2028, and the plan's third year assumes 640,000 dekatherms per day of Cherokee sendout, not the full 800,000.²⁸ The Commission approved on June 16, 2026 four new tap stations and a Riverdale LNG tap meter, costing $33.4 million by AGL's forecast, to receive the new interstate capacity.⁹ So the filings read do not show whether the 2028-29 winter has a design-day gap or only a delay in pressure and takeaway improvements.²⁹ The outlook below counts the documented delay itself as a risk factor, not a design-day gap.

What does this mean for business gas costs?

The filings read state no cost split among customer classes for the metro and no bill impact for the reserve margin. For one cost, AGL proposed in its 2024 plan a System Reinforcement Rider charge, a yearly charge per customer that depends on the customer's rate class (AGL's billing category), shown in the table.³⁰ The charge resets as new projects are approved. The Commission approved the plan as modified by a stipulation, so the approved amounts were not read.

AGL's proposed System Reinforcement Rider charge by rate class, from section 1.5 of its 2024 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, across its whole system. A proposal, not an approved amount.³¹

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

Under AGL's tariff, interruptible service is the first to be curtailed, meaning cut. AGL's tariff provides distribution service in this descending order: FD-1 and FDT-1, then FD-2 and FDT-2, then interruptible services.³² Interruptible service has the lowest priority and is curtailed after at least 30 minutes' notice, except in force majeure (an emergency outage or repair) or where system integrity is in jeopardy. Firm use gas will not be curtailed except under load control provisions the Commission has approved. Customers who do not comply are exposed to curtailment penalties; no assessment of the amount is shown.

Winter and market context

National picture. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that near-normal seasonal average temperatures are favored for much of the Southeast.^B1 National storage, El Nino, LNG export and Henry Hub price figures are in the notes.⁴⁵ Regional picture. Georgia is in EIA's East storage region.^C4 EIA's weekly table, released October 22, 2026, lists the region's working gas (gas in storage) at 900 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 16, 2026.^C1 The five-year comparison EIA states in its weekly report was not read. EIA's citygate table, which shows the price at the point where a local utility receives gas, lists 5.13 dollars per thousand cubic feet for Georgia for July 2026, the latest month saved.^C2 It is a commodity price, not evidence of a constraint. Pipeline notices. Transco's Operational Flow Order Notice 16336705 of December 11, 2025 is described above.^D2 Our count of its Zone 4 imbalance orders in the last three winters, from notices saved October 27, 2026, is in the table below.¹⁵ Southern Natural Gas's notices page, saved October 27, 2026, lists four operational flow order notices, all in October 2026.^D1 The page covers only about 90 days, so its notices for the last three winters are not known from it.³³

Transco Zone 4 imbalance order coverage in each of the last three winters.¹²

Winter weather

The last three winters were all milder than the 1991-2020 normal at the Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport weather station, measured in heating degree days.³⁴

Heating degree days, November to March, as a share of the 1991-2020 normal; our calculation from NOAA ACIS data.³⁵

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook issued October 15, 2026 gives roughly equal chances of above, near and below normal temperatures for Atlanta in both November to January and December to February, for a three-month average rather than specific days or an outage.³⁶

What is the outlook for Atlanta-area gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Atlanta-area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): the base level is Watch because AGL's own plan says its 5% reserve margin is insufficient, the Commission approved extra capacity above the 5% margin for each plan year, and the new supply, tap stations and Cherokee LNG expansion it relies on are approved and scheduled.³⁷ AGL still plans to meet its design-day requirement: the Commission approved its plan for the three plan years through September 2028, and the filings read show no design-day gap from the delay.³ The level is Elevated, one step above the Watch base level, because the documented delay to the pipeline for the full Cherokee sendout is a second risk factor. Documented risk factors: concentration (F1), because a loss of the Southern Natural Gas feed into Riverdale would lose up to 260,000 Mcf of flowing capacity, described under spare capacity above.²⁰ A fix at legal or permit risk (F10), because the two Cumming pipeline segments are projected for 2029 and 2030 against original dates of 2028 and 2029, after a new route was required, and AGL's May 2026 petition reports significant delays on key System Reinforcement pipeline projects, primarily due to land access.²⁹ Three developments would change the assessment: AGL's 2028 Capacity Supply Plan, or an earlier filing, stating a different margin or a design-day gap for 2028-29, or the Commission changing the reserve margin standard; a further move in the gas-on dates for the two pipeline segments or their entering service, or Cherokee LNG vaporization commissioning slipping past the fourth quarter of 2026; or a record tying the Plant Yates turbines, other new gas-fired generation or large loads in the metro to AGL's system or to the interstate pipelines that serve it.³⁸ This rating rests on AGL's system-wide figures, which are the closest the public record gets to the metro, because pool-level and contract-level data are redacted in the public disclosure.⁷ We read the Commission's order and Staff's statements as the regulator's standard, and AGL's statement that its margin is insufficient as the utility's position. Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What's new (as of October 28, 2026)

AGL's August 2026 quarterly report puts final commissioning of vaporization at its Cherokee LNG expansion on target for the fourth quarter of 2026. Georgia Power's August 2026 construction report gives December 21, 2026 for Plant Yates Unit 8, and May 1, 2027 and August 1, 2027 for Units 9 and 10.³⁹

What should Atlanta-area facilities check now?

• Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
• Marketer and service category. Confirm which certificated marketer serves each site, whether service is firm or interruptible, and what the contract says about operational flow order and curtailment charges, because AGL's tariff places interruptible service last.
• Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and that fuel inventories and resupply are in place before December.
• Upcoming proceedings. Track AGL's 2028 Capacity Supply Plan, its Cherokee LNG quarterly reports and the gas-on dates for the Cumming pipeline projects in Docket 43820.

Frequently asked questions

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

• Hampton Roads natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Raleigh natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Charlotte natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Pennsylvania UGI Gas territory natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Notes

1. Metro boundary: the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA metropolitan statistical area as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023), 29 counties, 6,482,182 people (Census Bureau Vintage 2025, and the metro master list). AGL's filings say it serves 98 Georgia counties and 243 municipalities; no filing read lists AGL's service area by county, and municipal gas systems in the metro were not read, so the figures on this page are for the AGL system and stand for the metro as the most local figures the record has. Discovery Energy's territory file lists AGL for 27 of the 29 counties at low confidence from a one-call listing; it was not used for assignment. The federal definition is Office of Management and Budget Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023). The counties are Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Haralson, Heard, Henry, Jasper, Lumpkin, Meriwether, Morgan, Newton, Paulding, Pickens, Pike, Rockdale, Spalding and Walton counties, Georgia.
2. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Pre-filed Direct Testimony of Gregory Becker (filed July 1, 2025), Georgia Public Service Commission Docket 56177, Atlanta Gas Light Company's 2025-2028 Capacity Supply Plan (public disclosure; Word text, so the PDF page is not given). Utility statements for the whole AGL system; the public version redacts the pool-level forecast and the asset array. The 2025-2028 plan is a Capacity Supply Plan, filed under a separate docket from the Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan; Staff did not file testimony in Docket 56177, and the Commission's order adopted a stipulation signed by AGL, Staff and six marketers. The testimony dates the all-time sendout of 2,334,778 dekatherms December 23, 2025, which is after the filing date and is probably a typing error (AGL's 2024 plan dates a record load December 23, 2022); Georgia Public Service Commission, Final Order Adopting Parties' Stipulation, Docket 56177 (September 17, 2025; pages 1 to 5 are a scan read by Windows built-in OCR, so quotes from them are labeled OCR-based and the check shows only that the words appear in the OCR text; the stipulation pages have a text layer). A Commission order adopting a stipulation; the figures in the stipulation are the parties' agreed terms that the Commission approved; Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, public disclosure (filed May 9, 2024), Docket 43820, sections 1.5, 4.2 to 4.5.4, the Cherokee LNG funding section and the overview. Utility statements for the whole AGL system. Section 4.5.4 is the section Staff's testimony names as AGL's statement on its current reserve margin. The plan was filed in February 2024 and amended on May 9, 2024; the Commission approved it on July 2, 2024 as amended and as modified by a stipulation; Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, funding requirements (May 2024); AGL's responses to Staff's 23rd Set of Data Requests (filed March 3, 2026), Docket 43820, response to STF-23-4 and its narrative; AGL's Petition to Amend (May 14, 2026). Utility statements. The first quoted need dates are from May 2024; the 2026 response gives original and projected gas-on dates and does not restate them as need dates. AGL's May 2024 sentence says Segment 1 must be completed by 2028 "to meet 2028 projected gas supply requirements on a Design Day"; it names a year and not a winter or heating season, and the plan years the Commission approved end September 30, 2028.
3. Georgia Public Service Commission, Final Order Adopting Parties' Stipulation, Docket 56177 (September 17, 2025; pages 1 to 5 are a scan read by Windows built-in OCR, so quotes from them are labeled OCR-based and the check shows only that the words appear in the OCR text; the stipulation pages have a text layer). A Commission order adopting a stipulation; the figures in the stipulation are the parties' agreed terms that the Commission approved. ↩
4. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Pre-filed Direct Testimony of Gregory Becker (filed July 1, 2025), Georgia Public Service Commission Docket 56177, Atlanta Gas Light Company's 2025-2028 Capacity Supply Plan (public disclosure; Word text, so the PDF page is not given). Utility statements for the whole AGL system; the public version redacts the pool-level forecast and the asset array. The 2025-2028 plan is a Capacity Supply Plan, filed under a separate docket from the Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan; Staff did not file testimony in Docket 56177, and the Commission's order adopted a stipulation signed by AGL, Staff and six marketers. The testimony dates the all-time sendout of 2,334,778 dekatherms December 23, 2025, which is after the filing date and is probably a typing error (AGL's 2024 plan dates a record load December 23, 2022). ↩
5. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, public disclosure (filed May 9, 2024), Docket 43820, sections 1.5, 4.2 to 4.5.4, the Cherokee LNG funding section and the overview. Utility statements for the whole AGL system. Section 4.5.4 is the section Staff's testimony names as AGL's statement on its current reserve margin. The plan was filed in February 2024 and amended on May 9, 2024; the Commission approved it on July 2, 2024 as amended and as modified by a stipulation. ↩
6. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, funding requirements (May 2024); AGL's responses to Staff's 23rd Set of Data Requests (filed March 3, 2026), Docket 43820, response to STF-23-4 and its narrative; AGL's Petition to Amend (May 14, 2026). Utility statements. The first quoted need dates are from May 2024; the 2026 response gives original and projected gas-on dates and does not restate them as need dates. AGL's May 2024 sentence says Segment 1 must be completed by 2028 "to meet 2028 projected gas supply requirements on a Design Day"; it names a year and not a winter or heating season, and the plan years the Commission approved end September 30, 2028. ↩
7. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, public disclosure (filed May 9, 2024), Docket 43820, sections 1.5, 4.2 to 4.5.4, the Cherokee LNG funding section and the overview. Utility statements for the whole AGL system. Section 4.5.4 is the section Staff's testimony names as AGL's statement on its current reserve margin. The plan was filed in February 2024 and amended on May 9, 2024; the Commission approved it on July 2, 2024 as amended and as modified by a stipulation; Georgia Public Service Commission Staff, Direct Testimony of Tony Wackerly and Janey Chauvet (May 14, 2024), Docket 43820, pages 40 and 41, citing AGL's response to Staff data request STF-14-8-a (Staff exhibit WC-6, an image file, not read); and the Commission's Order Adopting Stipulation of July 2, 2024 and Order Approving Amendments of June 22, 2026, both scans read by OCR. Staff analysis, and Commission orders. ↩
8. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan (May 9, 2024), pages 87 to 88 and section 4.3; Cherokee LNG Expansion, LNG Tracker Quarterly Report No. 18 (public disclosure, August 24, 2026), Docket 43820. Utility filings. The tracker's budget tables are redacted in the public version, so the only public budget figure is the $249 million estimate in the 2024 plan, before overheads, AFUDC and internal labor; AGL's May 2026 petition says the current total project estimates are within approximately ten percent of the validated budget but gives no total. AGL's May 2024 plan estimated the expansion at about $249 million before overheads, and the Commission's order of November 18, 2021 approved it. ↩
9. Georgia Public Service Commission, Order Approving Amendments to AGL's 2025-2034 i-CDP (filed June 22, 2026; a scan read by OCR), section III and the ordering paragraphs; AGL's Petition to Amend (May 14, 2026). The order summarizes Staff's review of pipeline websites and of AGL's filing; the in-service dates for the pipeline expansions are as described there, not Commission findings about the pipelines. ↩
10. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, public disclosure (filed May 9, 2024), Docket 43820, sections 1.5, 4.2 to 4.5.4, the Cherokee LNG funding section and the overview. Utility statements for the whole AGL system. Section 4.5.4 is the section Staff's testimony names as AGL's statement on its current reserve margin. The plan was filed in February 2024 and amended on May 9, 2024; the Commission approved it on July 2, 2024 as amended and as modified by a stipulation; Metro boundary: the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA metropolitan statistical area as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023), 29 counties, 6,482,182 people (Census Bureau Vintage 2025, and the metro master list). AGL's filings say it serves 98 Georgia counties and 243 municipalities; no filing read lists AGL's service area by county, and municipal gas systems in the metro were not read, so the figures on this page are for the AGL system and stand for the metro as the most local figures the record has. Discovery Energy's territory file lists AGL for 27 of the 29 counties at low confidence from a one-call listing; it was not used for assignment. ↩
11. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Becker testimony (July 2025) and responses to Staff's First Set of Data Requests in Docket 56177 (July 29, 2025); Georgia Environmental Protection Division, PSD Final Determination for Yates Steam-Electric Generating Plant, Application TV-802465 (June 5, 2024); lines computed from EIA-860M (September 2026, Planned sheet) and from a Federal Register search of FERC notices for the 29 metro counties. The EIA-860M sheet lists 9 planned natural gas-fired generator rows in Georgia, 6 of them in metro counties: three at Plant Yates in Coweta County, 1,448.4 megawatts nameplate together (one under construction for February 2027 and two planned for December 2027), and three 2-megawatt units in Cobb County at a Cobb Electric Membership Corporation solar and battery site (under construction for May 2027). The Plant Yates turbines are shown in the state air permit determination and in EIA-860M; the Cobb County units are at a Cobb Electric Membership Corporation site, and Plant Yates is in Newnan. ↩
12. Own counts: Transco Zone 4 operational flow order runs and days are Discovery Energy's counts from Transco critical notices saved October 27, 2026. The facts and counts are in Discovery Energy's own words, with no Transco text or table layout. A run is a continuous stretch of days under one or more Zone 4 imbalance orders; it is not a count of critical days. Transco is a pipeline serving AGL, which also receives gas from Southern Natural Gas, per AGL's filings. ↩
13. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Pre-filed Direct Testimony of Gregory Becker (filed July 1, 2025), Georgia Public Service Commission Docket 56177, Atlanta Gas Light Company's 2025-2028 Capacity Supply Plan (public disclosure; Word text, so the PDF page is not given). Utility statements for the whole AGL system; the public version redacts the pool-level forecast and the asset array. The 2025-2028 plan is a Capacity Supply Plan, filed under a separate docket from the Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan; Staff did not file testimony in Docket 56177, and the Commission's order adopted a stipulation signed by AGL, Staff and six marketers. The testimony dates the all-time sendout of 2,334,778 dekatherms December 23, 2025, which is after the filing date and is probably a typing error (AGL's 2024 plan dates a record load December 23, 2022); Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, public disclosure (filed May 9, 2024), Docket 43820, sections 1.5, 4.2 to 4.5.4, the Cherokee LNG funding section and the overview. Utility statements for the whole AGL system. Section 4.5.4 is the section Staff's testimony names as AGL's statement on its current reserve margin. The plan was filed in February 2024 and amended on May 9, 2024; the Commission approved it on July 2, 2024 as amended and as modified by a stipulation; Atlanta Gas Light Company, Becker testimony (July 2025) and responses to Staff's First Set of Data Requests in Docket 56177 (July 29, 2025); Georgia Environmental Protection Division, PSD Final Determination for Yates Steam-Electric Generating Plant, Application TV-802465 (June 5, 2024); lines computed from EIA-860M (September 2026, Planned sheet) and from a Federal Register search of FERC notices for the 29 metro counties. The EIA-860M sheet lists 9 planned natural gas-fired generator rows in Georgia, 6 of them in metro counties: three at Plant Yates in Coweta County, 1,448.4 megawatts nameplate together (one under construction for February 2027 and two planned for December 2027), and three 2-megawatt units in Cobb County at a Cobb Electric Membership Corporation solar and battery site (under construction for May 2027); Metro boundary: the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA metropolitan statistical area as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023), 29 counties, 6,482,182 people (Census Bureau Vintage 2025, and the metro master list). AGL's filings say it serves 98 Georgia counties and 243 municipalities; no filing read lists AGL's service area by county, and municipal gas systems in the metro were not read, so the figures on this page are for the AGL system and stand for the metro as the most local figures the record has. Discovery Energy's territory file lists AGL for 27 of the 29 counties at low confidence from a one-call listing; it was not used for assignment. ↩
14. Supply-event search partly established. The record read documents no supply event for AGL's system since 2020 beyond the December 2025 Transco operational flow order. Transco Operational Flow Order Notice 16336705, posted December 11, 2025, is an imbalance order marked critical that covers Zones 4, 5 and 6 for gas days from December 13, 2025 until December 17, 2025; it is documented from the notice itself, saved and paraphrased here. It states a minimum penalty for imbalances beyond a stated tolerance, gives imbalance management and line pack as its purpose and names no shortfall; a marketer's complaint (an allegation) says it affected deliveries into the Atlanta market. No federal or state event report or EIA weekly archive keyword search was read. Pipeline notice counts: Transco's critical notices were counted from notices saved (Zone 4 imbalance operational flow orders; Georgia points on Transco's location list are all in Zone 4). Southern Natural Gas's notices page lists only about 90 days; the copy saved October 27, 2026 holds four operational flow order notices (712499, 712513, 712568 and 712581), all in October 2026, and its notices for the last three winters are not established. ↩
15. Supply-event search partly established. The record read documents no supply event for AGL's system since 2020 beyond the December 2025 Transco operational flow order. Transco Operational Flow Order Notice 16336705, posted December 11, 2025, is an imbalance order marked critical that covers Zones 4, 5 and 6 for gas days from December 13, 2025 until December 17, 2025; it is documented from the notice itself, saved and paraphrased here. It states a minimum penalty for imbalances beyond a stated tolerance, gives imbalance management and line pack as its purpose and names no shortfall; a marketer's complaint (an allegation) says it affected deliveries into the Atlanta market. No federal or state event report or EIA weekly archive keyword search was read. Pipeline notice counts: Transco's critical notices were counted from notices saved (Zone 4 imbalance operational flow orders; Georgia points on Transco's location list are all in Zone 4). Southern Natural Gas's notices page lists only about 90 days; the copy saved October 27, 2026 holds four operational flow order notices (712499, 712513, 712568 and 712581), all in October 2026, and its notices for the last three winters are not established. The notice states a minimum penalty for imbalances beyond a stated tolerance and gives imbalance management and line pack (gas held in the pipe itself) as its purpose. ↩
16. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Pre-filed Direct Testimony of Gregory Becker (filed July 1, 2025), Georgia Public Service Commission Docket 56177, Atlanta Gas Light Company's 2025-2028 Capacity Supply Plan (public disclosure; Word text, so the PDF page is not given). Utility statements for the whole AGL system; the public version redacts the pool-level forecast and the asset array. The 2025-2028 plan is a Capacity Supply Plan, filed under a separate docket from the Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan; Staff did not file testimony in Docket 56177, and the Commission's order adopted a stipulation signed by AGL, Staff and six marketers. The testimony dates the all-time sendout of 2,334,778 dekatherms December 23, 2025, which is after the filing date and is probably a typing error (AGL's 2024 plan dates a record load December 23, 2022); Georgia Public Service Commission, Final Order Adopting Parties' Stipulation, Docket 56177 (September 17, 2025; pages 1 to 5 are a scan read by Windows built-in OCR, so quotes from them are labeled OCR-based and the check shows only that the words appear in the OCR text; the stipulation pages have a text layer). A Commission order adopting a stipulation; the figures in the stipulation are the parties' agreed terms that the Commission approved; Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, public disclosure (filed May 9, 2024), Docket 43820, sections 1.5, 4.2 to 4.5.4, the Cherokee LNG funding section and the overview. Utility statements for the whole AGL system. Section 4.5.4 is the section Staff's testimony names as AGL's statement on its current reserve margin. The plan was filed in February 2024 and amended on May 9, 2024; the Commission approved it on July 2, 2024 as amended and as modified by a stipulation. ↩
17. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Pre-filed Direct Testimony of Gregory Becker (filed July 1, 2025), Georgia Public Service Commission Docket 56177, Atlanta Gas Light Company's 2025-2028 Capacity Supply Plan (public disclosure; Word text, so the PDF page is not given). Utility statements for the whole AGL system; the public version redacts the pool-level forecast and the asset array. The 2025-2028 plan is a Capacity Supply Plan, filed under a separate docket from the Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan; Staff did not file testimony in Docket 56177, and the Commission's order adopted a stipulation signed by AGL, Staff and six marketers. The testimony dates the all-time sendout of 2,334,778 dekatherms December 23, 2025, which is after the filing date and is probably a typing error (AGL's 2024 plan dates a record load December 23, 2022); Georgia Public Service Commission, Final Order Adopting Parties' Stipulation, Docket 56177 (September 17, 2025; pages 1 to 5 are a scan read by Windows built-in OCR, so quotes from them are labeled OCR-based and the check shows only that the words appear in the OCR text; the stipulation pages have a text layer). A Commission order adopting a stipulation; the figures in the stipulation are the parties' agreed terms that the Commission approved; Calculations by and rounded once for the page. Implied unadjusted design day = firm Design Day requirement / (1 + (5% + stated Additional Incremental Capacity %) / 100); the 5% and incremental amounts are those percentages of that implied figure. The method assumes the stated requirement is the unadjusted design day increased by the reserve and incremental percentages, as the testimony and stipulation describe; AGL's public disclosure redacts the unadjusted forecast, so. The LNG deliverability implied by AGL's method is the requirement less the interstate range: 1,104,500 dekatherms per day in plan year 1, 1,144,500 in year 2 and 1,184,500 in year 3. ↩
18. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Pre-filed Direct Testimony of Gregory Becker (filed July 1, 2025), Georgia Public Service Commission Docket 56177, Atlanta Gas Light Company's 2025-2028 Capacity Supply Plan (public disclosure; Word text, so the PDF page is not given). Utility statements for the whole AGL system; the public version redacts the pool-level forecast and the asset array. The 2025-2028 plan is a Capacity Supply Plan, filed under a separate docket from the Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan; Staff did not file testimony in Docket 56177, and the Commission's order adopted a stipulation signed by AGL, Staff and six marketers. The testimony dates the all-time sendout of 2,334,778 dekatherms December 23, 2025, which is after the filing date and is probably a typing error (AGL's 2024 plan dates a record load December 23, 2022); Calculations by and rounded once for the page. Implied unadjusted design day = firm Design Day requirement / (1 + (5% + stated Additional Incremental Capacity %) / 100); the 5% and incremental amounts are those percentages of that implied figure. The method assumes the stated requirement is the unadjusted design day increased by the reserve and incremental percentages, as the testimony and stipulation describe; AGL's public disclosure redacts the unadjusted forecast, so. The LNG deliverability implied by AGL's method is the requirement less the interstate range: 1,104,500 dekatherms per day in plan year 1, 1,144,500 in year 2 and 1,184,500 in year 3. ↩
19. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Pre-filed Direct Testimony of Gregory Becker (filed July 1, 2025), Georgia Public Service Commission Docket 56177, Atlanta Gas Light Company's 2025-2028 Capacity Supply Plan (public disclosure; Word text, so the PDF page is not given). Utility statements for the whole AGL system; the public version redacts the pool-level forecast and the asset array. The 2025-2028 plan is a Capacity Supply Plan, filed under a separate docket from the Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan; Staff did not file testimony in Docket 56177, and the Commission's order adopted a stipulation signed by AGL, Staff and six marketers. The testimony dates the all-time sendout of 2,334,778 dekatherms December 23, 2025, which is after the filing date and is probably a typing error (AGL's 2024 plan dates a record load December 23, 2022); Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, public disclosure (filed May 9, 2024), Docket 43820, sections 1.5, 4.2 to 4.5.4, the Cherokee LNG funding section and the overview. Utility statements for the whole AGL system. Section 4.5.4 is the section Staff's testimony names as AGL's statement on its current reserve margin. The plan was filed in February 2024 and amended on May 9, 2024; the Commission approved it on July 2, 2024 as amended and as modified by a stipulation. ↩
20. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, public disclosure (filed May 9, 2024), Docket 43820, sections 1.5, 4.2 to 4.5.4, the Cherokee LNG funding section and the overview. Utility statements for the whole AGL system. Section 4.5.4 is the section Staff's testimony names as AGL's statement on its current reserve margin. The plan was filed in February 2024 and amended on May 9, 2024; the Commission approved it on July 2, 2024 as amended and as modified by a stipulation. ↩
21. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Becker testimony (July 2025) and responses to Staff's First Set of Data Requests in Docket 56177 (July 29, 2025); Georgia Environmental Protection Division, PSD Final Determination for Yates Steam-Electric Generating Plant, Application TV-802465 (June 5, 2024); lines computed from EIA-860M (September 2026, Planned sheet) and from a Federal Register search of FERC notices for the 29 metro counties. The EIA-860M sheet lists 9 planned natural gas-fired generator rows in Georgia, 6 of them in metro counties: three at Plant Yates in Coweta County, 1,448.4 megawatts nameplate together (one under construction for February 2027 and two planned for December 2027), and three 2-megawatt units in Cobb County at a Cobb Electric Membership Corporation solar and battery site (under construction for May 2027); Georgia Public Service Commission, Final Order Adopting Parties' Stipulation, Docket 56177 (September 17, 2025; pages 1 to 5 are a scan read by Windows built-in OCR, so quotes from them are labeled OCR-based and the check shows only that the words appear in the OCR text; the stipulation pages have a text layer). A Commission order adopting a stipulation; the figures in the stipulation are the parties' agreed terms that the Commission approved. ↩
22. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Becker testimony (July 2025) and responses to Staff's First Set of Data Requests in Docket 56177 (July 29, 2025); Georgia Environmental Protection Division, PSD Final Determination for Yates Steam-Electric Generating Plant, Application TV-802465 (June 5, 2024); lines computed from EIA-860M (September 2026, Planned sheet) and from a Federal Register search of FERC notices for the 29 metro counties. The EIA-860M sheet lists 9 planned natural gas-fired generator rows in Georgia, 6 of them in metro counties: three at Plant Yates in Coweta County, 1,448.4 megawatts nameplate together (one under construction for February 2027 and two planned for December 2027), and three 2-megawatt units in Cobb County at a Cobb Electric Membership Corporation solar and battery site (under construction for May 2027); Georgia Power Company, Direct Testimony of the panel of Jeffrey R. Grubb and Michael A. Bush (May 21, 2024) and the Commission's Order Granting Certification (August 29, 2024), Docket 55378; Georgia Power, Yates Units 8-10 Fourth Semi-Annual Construction Monitoring Report, public disclosure (August 14, 2026), Docket 55931; the Commission's Order Adopting Stipulation on Georgia Power's 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (July 31, 2025), Docket 56002. Utility statements and Commission orders about a Georgia Power plant, not about AGL. ↩
23. Georgia Power Company, Direct Testimony of the panel of Jeffrey R. Grubb and Michael A. Bush (May 21, 2024) and the Commission's Order Granting Certification (August 29, 2024), Docket 55378; Georgia Power, Yates Units 8-10 Fourth Semi-Annual Construction Monitoring Report, public disclosure (August 14, 2026), Docket 55931; the Commission's Order Adopting Stipulation on Georgia Power's 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (July 31, 2025), Docket 56002. Utility statements and Commission orders about a Georgia Power plant, not about AGL. ↩
24. Discovery Energy data center scan log, October 28, 2026; a search that finds nothing does not prove that no project exists. ↩
25. Georgia Public Service Commission, Order Adopting Stipulation and Granting Certification of Capacity from the 2029-2031 All-Source RFP and Supplemental Resources, Docket 56298 and 56310 (2025-12-19), Order p. 9 of 12. ↩
26. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan (May 9, 2024), pages 87 to 88 and section 4.3; Cherokee LNG Expansion, LNG Tracker Quarterly Report No. 18 (public disclosure, August 24, 2026), Docket 43820. Utility filings. The tracker's budget tables are redacted in the public version, so the only public budget figure is the $249 million estimate in the 2024 plan, before overheads, AFUDC and internal labor; AGL's May 2026 petition says the current total project estimates are within approximately ten percent of the validated budget but gives no total; Atlanta Gas Light Company, Pre-filed Direct Testimony of Gregory Becker (filed July 1, 2025), Georgia Public Service Commission Docket 56177, Atlanta Gas Light Company's 2025-2028 Capacity Supply Plan (public disclosure; Word text, so the PDF page is not given). Utility statements for the whole AGL system; the public version redacts the pool-level forecast and the asset array. The 2025-2028 plan is a Capacity Supply Plan, filed under a separate docket from the Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan; Staff did not file testimony in Docket 56177, and the Commission's order adopted a stipulation signed by AGL, Staff and six marketers. The testimony dates the all-time sendout of 2,334,778 dekatherms December 23, 2025, which is after the filing date and is probably a typing error (AGL's 2024 plan dates a record load December 23, 2022). ↩
27. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, funding requirements (May 2024); AGL's responses to Staff's 23rd Set of Data Requests (filed March 3, 2026), Docket 43820, response to STF-23-4 and its narrative; AGL's Petition to Amend (May 14, 2026). Utility statements. The first quoted need dates are from May 2024; the 2026 response gives original and projected gas-on dates and does not restate them as need dates. AGL's May 2024 sentence says Segment 1 must be completed by 2028 "to meet 2028 projected gas supply requirements on a Design Day"; it names a year and not a winter or heating season, and the plan years the Commission approved end September 30, 2028. ↩
28. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Pre-filed Direct Testimony of Gregory Becker (filed July 1, 2025), Georgia Public Service Commission Docket 56177, Atlanta Gas Light Company's 2025-2028 Capacity Supply Plan (public disclosure; Word text, so the PDF page is not given). Utility statements for the whole AGL system; the public version redacts the pool-level forecast and the asset array. The 2025-2028 plan is a Capacity Supply Plan, filed under a separate docket from the Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan; Staff did not file testimony in Docket 56177, and the Commission's order adopted a stipulation signed by AGL, Staff and six marketers. The testimony dates the all-time sendout of 2,334,778 dekatherms December 23, 2025, which is after the filing date and is probably a typing error (AGL's 2024 plan dates a record load December 23, 2022); Georgia Public Service Commission, Order Approving Amendments to AGL's 2025-2034 i-CDP (filed June 22, 2026; a scan read by OCR), section III and the ordering paragraphs; AGL's Petition to Amend (May 14, 2026). The order summarizes Staff's review of pipeline websites and of AGL's filing; the in-service dates for the pipeline expansions are as described there, not Commission findings about the pipelines. ↩
29. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, funding requirements (May 2024); AGL's responses to Staff's 23rd Set of Data Requests (filed March 3, 2026), Docket 43820, response to STF-23-4 and its narrative; AGL's Petition to Amend (May 14, 2026). Utility statements. The first quoted need dates are from May 2024; the 2026 response gives original and projected gas-on dates and does not restate them as need dates. AGL's May 2024 sentence says Segment 1 must be completed by 2028 "to meet 2028 projected gas supply requirements on a Design Day"; it names a year and not a winter or heating season, and the plan years the Commission approved end September 30, 2028. ↩
30. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, section 1.5 (proposed System Reinforcement Rider charge by rate class; the charge resets as new projects are approved; the Commission approved the plan as modified by a stipulation on July 2, 2024, and the approved charge was not read); Atlanta Gas Light Company Tariff, version 10/01/2026, Terms of Service section 14.2 and the Interruptible Delivery Service rate schedule, sections 2.1 and 2.5. Tariff text and utility proposal. Not established: cost allocation among classes in a rate case (AGL's last rate case, Docket 42315, was settled in 2019 and was not read), and the amount of any curtailment penalty. ↩
31. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, section 1.5 (proposed System Reinforcement Rider charge by rate class; the charge resets as new projects are approved; the Commission approved the plan as modified by a stipulation on July 2, 2024, and the approved charge was not read); Atlanta Gas Light Company Tariff, version 10/01/2026, Terms of Service section 14.2 and the Interruptible Delivery Service rate schedule, sections 2.1 and 2.5. Tariff text and utility proposal. Not established: cost allocation among classes in a rate case (AGL's last rate case, Docket 42315, was settled in 2019 and was not read), and the amount of any curtailment penalty. ↩
32. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, section 1.5 (proposed System Reinforcement Rider charge by rate class; the charge resets as new projects are approved; the Commission approved the plan as modified by a stipulation on July 2, 2024, and the approved charge was not read); Atlanta Gas Light Company Tariff, version 10/01/2026, Terms of Service section 14.2 and the Interruptible Delivery Service rate schedule, sections 2.1 and 2.5. Tariff text and utility proposal. Not established: cost allocation among classes in a rate case (AGL's last rate case, Docket 42315, was settled in 2019 and was not read), and the amount of any curtailment penalty. ↩
33. Supply-event search partly established. The record read documents no supply event for AGL's system since 2020 beyond the December 2025 Transco operational flow order. Transco Operational Flow Order Notice 16336705, posted December 11, 2025, is an imbalance order marked critical that covers Zones 4, 5 and 6 for gas days from December 13, 2025 until December 17, 2025; it is documented from the notice itself, saved and paraphrased here. It states a minimum penalty for imbalances beyond a stated tolerance, gives imbalance management and line pack as its purpose and names no shortfall; a marketer's complaint (an allegation) says it affected deliveries into the Atlanta market. No federal or state event report or EIA weekly archive keyword search was read. Pipeline notice counts: Transco's critical notices were counted from notices saved (Zone 4 imbalance operational flow orders; Georgia points on Transco's location list are all in Zone 4). Southern Natural Gas's notices page lists only about 90 days; the copy saved October 27, 2026 holds four operational flow order notices (712499, 712513, 712568 and 712581), all in October 2026, and its notices for the last three winters are not established. The four notices are 712499 of October 8, 712513 of October 12, 712568 of October 22 and 712581 of October 26, 2026. ↩
34. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for ATLANTA HARTSFIELD-JACKSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for ATLANTA HARTSFIELD-JACKSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for ATLANTA HARTSFIELD-JACKSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed. [W5-WX-HDD-atlanta-2023-24, W5-WX-HDD-atlanta-2024-25, W5-WX-HDD-atlanta-2025-26]. ↩
35. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for ATLANTA HARTSFIELD-JACKSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for ATLANTA HARTSFIELD-JACKSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed; NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals for ATLANTA HARTSFIELD-JACKSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, November to March, computed. [W5-WX-HDD-atlanta-2023-24, W5-WX-HDD-atlanta-2024-25, W5-WX-HDD-atlanta-2025-26]. ↩
36. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed. []. The outlook gives, for November 2026 to January 2027, 33.5% above normal, 33.0% near normal and 33.5% below normal, and for December 2026 to February 2027, 33.0% above normal, 33.3% near normal and 33.7% below normal. ↩
37. Georgia Public Service Commission, Final Order Adopting Parties' Stipulation, Docket 56177 (September 17, 2025; pages 1 to 5 are a scan read by Windows built-in OCR, so quotes from them are labeled OCR-based and the check shows only that the words appear in the OCR text; the stipulation pages have a text layer). A Commission order adopting a stipulation; the figures in the stipulation are the parties' agreed terms that the Commission approved; Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, public disclosure (filed May 9, 2024), Docket 43820, sections 1.5, 4.2 to 4.5.4, the Cherokee LNG funding section and the overview. Utility statements for the whole AGL system. Section 4.5.4 is the section Staff's testimony names as AGL's statement on its current reserve margin. The plan was filed in February 2024 and amended on May 9, 2024; the Commission approved it on July 2, 2024 as amended and as modified by a stipulation; Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan (May 9, 2024), pages 87 to 88 and section 4.3; Cherokee LNG Expansion, LNG Tracker Quarterly Report No. 18 (public disclosure, August 24, 2026), Docket 43820. Utility filings. The tracker's budget tables are redacted in the public version, so the only public budget figure is the $249 million estimate in the 2024 plan, before overheads, AFUDC and internal labor; AGL's May 2026 petition says the current total project estimates are within approximately ten percent of the validated budget but gives no total; Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, funding requirements (May 2024); AGL's responses to Staff's 23rd Set of Data Requests (filed March 3, 2026), Docket 43820, response to STF-23-4 and its narrative; AGL's Petition to Amend (May 14, 2026). Utility statements. The first quoted need dates are from May 2024; the 2026 response gives original and projected gas-on dates and does not restate them as need dates. AGL's May 2024 sentence says Segment 1 must be completed by 2028 "to meet 2028 projected gas supply requirements on a Design Day"; it names a year and not a winter or heating season, and the plan years the Commission approved end September 30, 2028; Georgia Public Service Commission, Order Approving Amendments to AGL's 2025-2034 i-CDP (filed June 22, 2026; a scan read by OCR), section III and the ordering paragraphs; AGL's Petition to Amend (May 14, 2026). The order summarizes Staff's review of pipeline websites and of AGL's filing; the in-service dates for the pipeline expansions are as described there, not Commission findings about the pipelines. ↩
38. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Pre-filed Direct Testimony of Gregory Becker (filed July 1, 2025), Georgia Public Service Commission Docket 56177, Atlanta Gas Light Company's 2025-2028 Capacity Supply Plan (public disclosure; Word text, so the PDF page is not given). Utility statements for the whole AGL system; the public version redacts the pool-level forecast and the asset array. The 2025-2028 plan is a Capacity Supply Plan, filed under a separate docket from the Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan; Staff did not file testimony in Docket 56177, and the Commission's order adopted a stipulation signed by AGL, Staff and six marketers. The testimony dates the all-time sendout of 2,334,778 dekatherms December 23, 2025, which is after the filing date and is probably a typing error (AGL's 2024 plan dates a record load December 23, 2022); Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan (May 9, 2024), pages 87 to 88 and section 4.3; Cherokee LNG Expansion, LNG Tracker Quarterly Report No. 18 (public disclosure, August 24, 2026), Docket 43820. Utility filings. The tracker's budget tables are redacted in the public version, so the only public budget figure is the $249 million estimate in the 2024 plan, before overheads, AFUDC and internal labor; AGL's May 2026 petition says the current total project estimates are within approximately ten percent of the validated budget but gives no total; Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan, funding requirements (May 2024); AGL's responses to Staff's 23rd Set of Data Requests (filed March 3, 2026), Docket 43820, response to STF-23-4 and its narrative; AGL's Petition to Amend (May 14, 2026). Utility statements. The first quoted need dates are from May 2024; the 2026 response gives original and projected gas-on dates and does not restate them as need dates. AGL's May 2024 sentence says Segment 1 must be completed by 2028 "to meet 2028 projected gas supply requirements on a Design Day"; it names a year and not a winter or heating season, and the plan years the Commission approved end September 30, 2028; Atlanta Gas Light Company, Becker testimony (July 2025) and responses to Staff's First Set of Data Requests in Docket 56177 (July 29, 2025); Georgia Environmental Protection Division, PSD Final Determination for Yates Steam-Electric Generating Plant, Application TV-802465 (June 5, 2024); lines computed from EIA-860M (September 2026, Planned sheet) and from a Federal Register search of FERC notices for the 29 metro counties. The EIA-860M sheet lists 9 planned natural gas-fired generator rows in Georgia, 6 of them in metro counties: three at Plant Yates in Coweta County, 1,448.4 megawatts nameplate together (one under construction for February 2027 and two planned for December 2027), and three 2-megawatt units in Cobb County at a Cobb Electric Membership Corporation solar and battery site (under construction for May 2027). ↩
39. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Cherokee LNG Expansion, LNG Tracker Quarterly Report No. 18 (public disclosure, August 24, 2026), Docket 43820, Project Schedule, PDF page 6; Georgia Power, Yates Units 8-10 Fourth Semi-Annual Construction Monitoring Report, public disclosure (filed August 14, 2026), Docket 55931, Executive summary (report page 3), PDF page 5; Georgia Power, Yates Units 8-10 Fourth Semi-Annual Construction Monitoring Report, public disclosure (filed August 14, 2026), Docket 55931, Executive summary (report page 3), PDF page 5. ↩
40. Georgia Public Service Commission, Final Order Adopting Parties' Stipulation, Docket 56177 (September 17, 2025; pages 1 to 5 are a scan read by Windows built-in OCR, so quotes from them are labeled OCR-based and the check shows only that the words appear in the OCR text; the stipulation pages have a text layer). A Commission order adopting a stipulation; the figures in the stipulation are the parties' agreed terms that the Commission approved; Atlanta Gas Light Company, Amended 2025-2034 Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan (May 9, 2024), pages 87 to 88 and section 4.3; Cherokee LNG Expansion, LNG Tracker Quarterly Report No. 18 (public disclosure, August 24, 2026), Docket 43820. Utility filings. The tracker's budget tables are redacted in the public version, so the only public budget figure is the $249 million estimate in the 2024 plan, before overheads, AFUDC and internal labor; AGL's May 2026 petition says the current total project estimates are within approximately ten percent of the validated budget but gives no total. ↩
41. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Pre-filed Direct Testimony of Gregory Becker (filed July 1, 2025), Georgia Public Service Commission Docket 56177, Atlanta Gas Light Company's 2025-2028 Capacity Supply Plan (public disclosure; Word text, so the PDF page is not given). Utility statements for the whole AGL system; the public version redacts the pool-level forecast and the asset array. The 2025-2028 plan is a Capacity Supply Plan, filed under a separate docket from the Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan; Staff did not file testimony in Docket 56177, and the Commission's order adopted a stipulation signed by AGL, Staff and six marketers. The testimony dates the all-time sendout of 2,334,778 dekatherms December 23, 2025, which is after the filing date and is probably a typing error (AGL's 2024 plan dates a record load December 23, 2022); Georgia Public Service Commission, Final Order Adopting Parties' Stipulation, Docket 56177 (September 17, 2025; pages 1 to 5 are a scan read by Windows built-in OCR, so quotes from them are labeled OCR-based and the check shows only that the words appear in the OCR text; the stipulation pages have a text layer). A Commission order adopting a stipulation; the figures in the stipulation are the parties' agreed terms that the Commission approved. ↩
42. New-load search documented for Plant Yates, partly established for the rest. Plant Yates (Newnan, Coweta County, inside the metro) is certified in Docket 55378 (Georgia Power's 2023 IRP Update, certification of Yates Units 8-10; the Commission's order granting certification is dated August 29, 2024, document 219790). Georgia Power's panel testimony (May 2024), its Fourth Semi-Annual Construction Monitoring Report in Docket 55931 (August 14, 2026) and the state air permit describe dual-fuel units that take gas through existing firm transportation on Transco and a gas lateral off Transco (mechanical completion December 2025), with no added Transco capacity proposed and ultra-low sulfur diesel as the fuel when gas is unavailable. Georgia Power's report gives December 21, 2026 for Unit 8 and May 1 and August 1, 2027 for Units 9 and 10; EIA's September 2026 inventory lists February and December 2027, and the page gives both and relies on the filing. The page reports Yates and does not count it toward factor F4 (new load ahead of the fix): no record read ties it to AGL's system or to a remedy AGL would build; the question goes to the technical reviewer. Also read: the Commission's July 31, 2025 order on Georgia Power's 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (Docket 56002) gives authority to pursue natural gas co-firing at Plant Bowen and Plant Scherer and states no gas volume, delivery point, service date or pipeline; whether Plant Bowen lies in the metro was not read from a source, so it is unclear and not counted. Not searched or not found: the PJM and Southern Company queues, other Georgia air permits, FERC pipeline certificate filings (none in the Federal Register search), and economic development filings for data centers. News about data centers is a lead only.
43. Not established, and left out of the page: delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (not read: Transco's capacity postings were not pulled for this page and Southern Natural Gas's page shows only about 90 days; next capture about March 1, 2027); which of AGL's interstate contracts end within the horizon or two years after it (the public disclosure redacts the array and the asset stack, so factor F2 and its share test are not testable: the f2_share_calculation field is blank); policy context (R11: House Bill 150 of the 2021-2022 session, a bill to prohibit local policies that block utility connections by type of energy, was saved as a committee substitute text, but its enactment and any code section could not be confirmed from an official page, so no policy item is on the page); the amount of capacity assigned to each marketer; and the five-year comparison EIA states for East region storage.
44. Plan year 2 Cherokee LNG sendout of 600,000 dekatherms per day is the existing 400,000 plus 200,000 added, calculated from AGL's stated additions. ↩
45. National figures moved out of the Winter and market context section because they do not bear on the metro. EIA said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter 2% above the previous five-year average (source A1). EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook says prolonged cold could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast and lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15, 18 and 19 billion cubic feet per day for 2025, 2026 and 2027 (source A2). NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that the probability of at least a strong El Nino event continuing through January to March 2027 is 80% (source B1). EIA's Henry Hub table, which shows the national benchmark price, lists 3.28 and 3.10 dollars per million Btu for the first days reported of the week of October 19, 2026 (source C3). ↩

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 27, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link
2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link
3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩
4. B2. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook, GIS data, issued October 15, 2026, saved October 28, 2026. Link
5. B3. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, ACIS web service, monthly heating degree days and 1991-2020 normals, saved October 28, 2026. Link
6. C1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026. Link ↩
7. C2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in Georgia, monthly. Link ↩
8. C3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily, release of October 21, 2026. Link
9. C4. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report definitions (East Region). Link ↩
10. D2. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notices (Zone 4 imbalance orders, including Notice 16336705 of December 11, 2025), notices posted October 2023 to March 2026, and Transco location list, accessed October 27, 2026. Link ↩
11. D1. Southern Natural Gas Company, L.L.C., critical notices page (about the last 90 days), saved October 27, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

1. Georgia Public Service Commission, Docket 56177, Atlanta Gas Light Company's 2025-2028 Capacity Supply Plan (2025). Link
2. Georgia Public Service Commission, Docket 43820, Atlanta Gas Light Company's Integrated Capacity and Delivery Plan (2024 to 2026). Link
3. Georgia Environmental Protection Division, PSD Final Determination, Yates Steam-Electric Generating Plant, Application TV-802465 (June 5, 2024). Link
4. Atlanta Gas Light Company, Tariff, version 10/01/2026. Link
5. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory (EIA-860M), September 2026. Link
6. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.

Sources: Discovery Energy compilation from public FERC-required pipeline operational notices, capacity reports, and Indexes of Customers postings as published by the interstate pipelines serving this metro, and from public gas-utility documents. Discovery Energy is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any pipeline, utility, or regulator named on this page. All trademarks and names remain the property of their respective owners. Counts, summaries, tables, and charts are original Discovery Energy compilations; readers should verify against the cited notices. Data current as of October 27, 2026. For information only and not a guarantee of future pipeline operations, capacity, or pricing.