Washington DC, Northern Virginia and Baltimore winter stress record. October 2026

Washington DC, Northern Virginia and Baltimore natural gas winter stress record: neither is rated

Neither metro has a public supply-versus-demand balance, so neither is rated. Columbia's critical-day notices for Operating Area 10, which covers both, span 24, 34 and 55 gas days over winters 2023-24 to 2025-26 and do not say who was affected.

55 daysColumbia critical-day gas days, Virginia/Maryland operating area, winter 2025-26 (Notice 25980112, February 20, 2026)
34 daysColumbia critical-day gas days, Virginia/Maryland operating area, winter 2024-25 (Notice 25929340, February 28, 2025)
24 daysColumbia critical-day gas days, Virginia/Maryland operating area, winter 2023-24 (Notice 25891211, January 12, 2024)
Not ratedNo public supply-versus-demand balance found for either metro

Metro used: two metropolitan statistical areas, as the federal government defines them in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023): Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, referred to here as Washington DC including Northern Virginia, and Baltimore-Columbia-Towson. They share one pipeline record, Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC ("Columbia") Operating Area 10, so they share this page, each with its own section and map. The serving gas utilities are Washington Gas Light Company ("Washington Gas") and Baltimore Gas and Electric Company ("BGE"), with Columbia Gas of Virginia, Inc. ("Columbia Gas of Virginia") serving part of Northern Virginia. The Columbia notices cover one of several pipelines serving the two metros.1

Key takeaways

  • Washington Gas and BGE publish tariff rules that assign capacity by design day (the coldest day the system is planned for), not a comparison of supply with demand.3
  • The critical days fell in 5, 4 and 4 separate events in the three winters, by our count of Columbia's notices.2
  • Transco's imbalance orders (shippers must keep imbalances within a tolerance), a different measure, covered zone 6 on 56 gas days in winter 2025-26 and zone 5 on 19.4
  • Zero non-firm availability (no interruptible or secondary capacity) at Rutledge North occurred on 120 of 145 parsed winter gas days in 2025-26, and on no summer day.2
  • Winter 2025-26 was the coldest of the three at Reagan National airport (105.3% of the 1991-2020 normal) and Baltimore (103.6%).5
  • The record does not show Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage supply or a current design-day margin; the only Washington Gas margin found, for 2018-19, is too old to rate.6

Why these two metros are not rated

Neither metro has a public supply-versus-demand balance for a current year, so neither is rated. We rate a metro only when a public source gives that balance. Neither Washington Gas nor BGE publishes one in the records reviewed: the tariffs describe how capacity is assigned to customers, not how it compares with a design day. The only margin figure found for Washington Gas is for winter 2018-19 and is too old to rate. If either utility states its design day margin in writing, or a filing gives one, its metro can be rated at the next update.3

Who serves each metro?

The pipeline notices on this page were matched to each metro through the delivery points that pipelines name for the serving utilities. Washington DC including Northern Virginia is served by Washington Gas, and in part by Columbia Gas of Virginia. It sits in Columbia's Conowingo and Rockville market areas, in the Washington-Baltimore operating area and in Transco zones 5 and 6. Columbia names delivery points for Washington Gas and Columbia Gas of Virginia, and Transco lists Washington Gas delivery points in zone 5 and zone 6. Baltimore is served by BGE. It sits in Columbia's Conowingo market area, in the Washington-Baltimore operating area and in Transco zone 6. Columbia names a delivery point for BGE, and Transco lists a BGE delivery point in zone 6. We made these matches from Columbia's market area and operating area descriptions and its locations report, and from the Transco locations list.33 The Virginia/Maryland operating area consists of Conowingo, Rockville and Charlottesville market areas.2 The counts below describe two pipelines, Columbia and Transco. Washington Gas also buys gas from Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage, and BGE connects to it, but that pipeline's postings were not reached, so the counts describe only part of the supply for either metro and may understate or overstate their exposure.6

The escalation ladders: pipeline and utility

Both the pipeline and the utilities have a sequence of steps they can take as conditions tighten. Columbia's notices show a sequence of operational alerts, pre-operational flow order warnings, flow orders for receipt points, and then transport critical days for named operating areas. The "critical days" counted on this page are the last step, and each carries a tariff penalty for takes above firm entitlement.2 Washington Gas's tariffs describe its own sequence. In Maryland a System Alert comes first and may lead to an operational flow order. The District of Columbia tariff sets a $25 per dth (dekatherm, a unit of gas energy) penalty for suppliers not complying with an operational flow order and lets Washington Gas declare a Critical Day without notice, with a $50 per dth penalty for under-delivery on such a day. The Maryland tariff's emergency provision covers a case where the company's peak day supply proves insufficient, and the Virginia tariff provides for an Essential Human Needs Emergency. This is what the tariffs say; no declaration of any of these steps was searched for or counted.3 BGE's supplier tariff sets a $25.00 per Dth penalty for noncompliance with an operational flow order, issued by 9:00 a.m. Its Schedule IS defines a Gas Production Day, one on which the company anticipates peak shaving. Its curtailment plan first discontinues supply under Schedules IS, EG and ISS and special contracts and last under Schedule D, with a $100 per Dth penalty for not complying with curtailment notices. Tariff exposure is described here; no penalty is shown assessed.7

Winter by winter: distinct critical-day events in Operating Area 10

Columbia's critical days in Operating Area 10 rose from 24 gas days in winter 2023-24 to 55 in winter 2025-26.2 The area covers both metros, so the counts are the same for both. A winter is 1 November to 31 March. An event is one run of transport critical-day status for the operating area; the day it is lifted does not count. Storage critical days carry the same dates and are counted as the same events. Routine operational alerts and capacity postings are left out of the events. We counted the events from Columbia's critical notices posted October 2023 to October 2026.29

Winter Distinct events Gas days Notice
2023-24 5 24 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25891211, January 12, 2024
2024-25 4 34 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25929340, February 28, 2025
2025-26 4 55 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25980112, February 20, 2026

Critical-day events and gas days in Columbia's Washington DC and Baltimore operating area, by winter.2

The episodes behind these counts:

Winter Episode start Lift effective Gas days Notice
2023-24 2023-12-06 2023-12-08 2 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25888250, December 5, 2023
2023-24 2023-12-11 2023-12-15 4 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25889217, December 8, 2023
2023-24 2023-12-19 2023-12-23 4 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25889720, December 18, 2023
2023-24 2024-01-04 2024-01-09 5 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25889755, January 3, 2024
2023-24 2024-01-14 2024-01-23 9 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25891211, January 12, 2024
2024-25 2024-12-21 2024-12-24 3 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25923518, December 20, 2024
2024-25 2025-01-04 2025-01-26 22 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25924316, January 3, 2025
2024-25 2025-02-17 2025-02-24 7 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25927815, February 14, 2025
2024-25 2025-03-02 2025-03-04 2 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25929340, February 28, 2025
2025-26 2025-12-05 2025-12-17 12 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25967617, December 4, 2025
2025-26 2025-12-29 2026-01-06 8 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25971608, December 23, 2025
2025-26 2026-01-15 2026-02-10 26 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25974514, January 16, 2026
2025-26 2026-02-22 2026-03-03 9 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25980112, February 20, 2026

Each episode of critical days that named the Virginia/Maryland operating area. Start and lift are the first and last gas days of the episode for the area.8

Transco imbalance orders, shown separately

Transco's imbalance orders are a different measure from Columbia's critical days, and the two counts are not added. Transco's notices say they do not affect delivery of scheduled gas.4

Winter Transco zone Imbalance OFO runs OFO days First notice of the winter
2023-24 Zone 5 12 119 Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 14034522, October 30, 2023
2023-24 Zone 6 12 122 Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 14034522, October 30, 2023
2024-25 Zone 5 6 85 Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 15139001, November 19, 2024
2024-25 Zone 6 6 85 Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 15139001, November 19, 2024
2025-26 Zone 5 5 19 Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 16336705, December 11, 2025
2025-26 Zone 6 15 56 Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 16225021, November 6, 2025

Transco imbalance order runs (OFO runs) and the days covered (OFO days), by zone and winter.9

In 2025-26 Transco issued many short notices, so run counts differ in character from earlier winters.30

Transco also posted force majeure notices (emergency outage or repair notices) limiting primary firm transportation through Station 517 on its Leidy line from December 2025 and through Station 115 in February 2026. The notices do not state whether either reached the delivery points of these metros.10 Transco posted four cold-weather operational alerts for its whole pipeline system in the three winters.11

Other Columbia events naming these areas

Columbia also posted force majeure and flow order notices that named market areas serving these metros. The notices do not say whether any customer service was affected.

Event Metros Market area Period Notices What the notice says
Force majeure, Downingtown Washington DC; Baltimore; Dover West Deptford market area, Conowingo market area 2023-11-08 to 2023-11-16 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 25887025, November 8, 2023; Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 25887710, November 16, 2023 No anticipated commercial impact at posting; constraints named as possibly impacted
Force majeure, Line VB Washington DC including Northern Virginia Rockville market area 2023-07-25 to 2024-09-05 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 25891210, January 12, 2024; Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 25911117, September 5, 2024 Began before the winter (posting text: effective ID1 cycle for Gas Day July 25, 2023); the notice speaks of a firm restriction through Lost River CS (Rockville market area)
Operational flow order, Lost River Washington DC including Northern Virginia Rockville market area 2024-01-09 to 2024-01-23 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 25891210, January 12, 2024; Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 25891244, January 22, 2024 Warning of a possible order (pre-OFO) on 2024-01-09 (notice 25890323), order effective 2024-01-15, lifted 2024-01-23
Force majeure, Line 1804 Baltimore; Dover Hanover, Easton and West Deptford market areas, Conowingo market area 2025-02-10 to 2025-02-16 Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 25926835, February 10, 2025; Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 25927826, February 16, 2025 No commercial impact at posting; lists restrictions that may become necessary; says commercial restrictions remain after the lift

Columbia force majeure and flow order events that named market areas serving these metros, with the first and last notice for each.8

Documented local constraints

Columbia offered no non-firm capacity at several points that deliver gas to these metros on many winter days. Columbia's daily capacity postings show whether it was available through named internal constraints, and zero means Columbia offered none through that point that gas day. Zero non-firm availability occurred on days with no critical day, so it is a cold-season condition and not the same measure as a critical day.12

Constraint point (on Columbia's system) Side Winter 2023-24: gas days at zero Winter 2024-25: gas days at zero Winter 2025-26: gas days at zero Summer: gas days at zero
Loudoun (Conowingo market area) delivery 128 of 151 56 of 151 40 of 146 0 of 269
Rutledge North (Conowingo market area) delivery 124 of 151 52 of 151 120 of 145 0 of 269
Seneca (Rockville market area) delivery 118 of 151 92 of 151 89 of 140 0 of 269
Lost River CS (Rockville market area) delivery 110 of 151 107 of 151 98 of 146 7 of 269
Rutledge South (Conowingo market area) receipt 151 of 151 151 of 151 146 of 146 269 of 269

Gas days with zero non-firm capacity at Columbia constraint points serving these metros, out of the gas days counted, by winter; summer means June to August.13

Rutledge South is a receipt constraint at zero in every season, so for it zero is the standing condition. Days that could not be parsed are left out of the counts.31

Weather against normal

Winter 2023-24 was the mildest of the three at all three stations and 2025-26 the coldest at Reagan National and BWI, yet Columbia declared critical days for Operating Area 10 in all three winters. Three winters are not enough to separate weather from how Columbia chose to use critical days.14

Station 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26
Washington DC (Reagan National) 86.0% of normal 91.1% of normal 105.3% of normal
Washington Dulles (Northern Virginia) 84.2% of normal 92.3% of normal 99.6% of normal
Baltimore (BWI) 85.3% of normal 94.1% of normal 103.6% of normal

Heating degree days (a measure of how cold it was), November to March, as a share of the 1991-2020 normal, for the airport weather stations. Source: NOAA ACIS.5

NOAA's three-month temperature outlook for each metro, issued October 15, 2026, is given in the section for that metro below.15

Firm contract end dates, and what they do not show

A contract end date is not the end of service. Columbia's own capacity report assumes all right-of-first-refusal (ROFR) rights are exercised indefinitely, so a contract with that right may be renewed. Each pipeline's Index of Customers lists each utility's firm contracts with end dates. The table sums transport contracts that had not passed their primary term on October 27, 2026, by the year the term ends. It does not measure any utility's total firm supply, because storage held on other pipelines, agent-held contracts and Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage capacity are not in it.13

Shipper Pipeline Live transport contracts (Dth per day) Ending 2026 or 2027 Ending 2028 to 2030 Ending 2031 or later Latest end Past primary term (may still run)
Washington Gas Light Columbia 1,048,173 112,107 220,137 715,929 2033-11-15 0
Washington Gas Light Transco 267,425 100,000 0 167,425 2034-11-30 94,863
Baltimore Gas and Electric Columbia 429,693 0 76,231 353,462 2033-10-31 0
Baltimore Gas and Electric Transco 75,000 25,000 0 50,000 2039-07-31 22,253
Columbia Gas of Virginia Columbia 342,789 13,500 267,689 61,600 2044-01-31 0
Columbia Gas of Virginia Transco 40,000 40,000 0 0 2028-03-31 92,111

Firm transport contracts held by each utility on Columbia and Transco, in Dth per day, by the year the contract term ends.16

Columbia Gas of Virginia's contracts serve its whole system, not only Northern Virginia.32

New large gas loads

We found one planned gas-fired unit in the Washington metro's counties, none planned in the Baltimore counties, and no data center gas volume for either metro. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly generator inventory (September 2026 release) lists one planned gas-fired unit in the counties of the Washington metro, a combustion turbine at a combined heat and power plant in the District of Columbia, and four canceled or postponed units, and none planned in the Baltimore counties.17 Data centers: As of October 28, 2026, no data center with on-site gas generation appears in the EIA inventory for either metro, and our search of official records found no gas data center load for Baltimore.19 A report of eight gas turbines at a Loudoun County data center was read on a web page and not saved, so it is not shown. A presentation to Virginia's Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission says Northern Virginia has the highest concentration of data centers globally; it concerns electric demand, and no gas volume for it is in the records reviewed.18 Nearby: AltaGas Ltd. said in March and April 2026 that it signed agreements tied to data centers in Maryland; neither statement gives a gas volume, so we do not treat them as gas load on Washington Gas's system.20

Policy context

No Maryland, Virginia or District of Columbia policy, order or rule specific to natural gas service for large new loads was found in the official sources reviewed, so none is described here. Commission dockets for Washington Gas and BGE could not be reached by automated download.6

Washington DC including Northern Virginia

Pipelines supplying the Washington DC area N Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Transco Transco Transco Transco Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Transco Transco Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Loudoun Loudoun Washington Washington Alexandria Alexandria Charles County Charles County Clarke County Clarke County Culpeper Co. Culpeper Co. District of Columbia District of Columbia Fairfax Co. Fairfax Co. Fauquier County Fauquier County Frederick County Frederick County Fredericksburg city Fredericksburg city Jefferson County Jefferson County Loudoun County Loudoun County Montgomery Co. Montgomery Co. Prince George's Co. Prince George's Co. Prince William County Prince William County Spotsylvania County Spotsylvania County Stafford County Stafford County Warren Co. Warren Co. Baltimore Baltimore Richmond Richmond Lynchburg Lynchburg Bowie Bowie Harrisonburg Harrisonburg Harrisburg Harrisburg Leesburg Leesburg York York Charlottesville Charlottesville Manassas Manassas Hagerstown Hagerstown Winchester Winchester Staunton Staunton Herndon Herndon I-95 I-95 I-81 I-81 I-70 I-70 I-64 I-64 I-76 I-76 I-83 I-68 US-30 US-219 US-222 PA 283 I-99 Pipelines supplying the Washington DC area Other gas pipelines Highways Washington DC metro area (22 counties) County lines Cities and towns Compressor station named on this page
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving Washington DC. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data; facility locations: HIFLD compressor stations (DHS). Counties, places, state outline and population: U.S. Census Bureau. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

This metro is matched to Columbia's market areas 28 and 30, the operating area for Washington DC and Baltimore, because Columbia lists delivery points named for Washington Gas in both and one for Columbia Gas of Virginia in market area 30.13 Its Columbia critical-day record is the Washington DC and Baltimore record above.22 Two Columbia constraints in market area 30 appear in notices for this metro: a force majeure on Line VB near Strasburg, Virginia, and an operational flow order on deliveries served through the Lost River compressor station constraint, lifted January 23, 2024.23 The Lost River constraint was at zero non-firm availability on most winter days.24 Washington Gas is the main serving utility and Columbia Gas of Virginia serves part of Northern Virginia. Washington Gas's tariffs in the District, Maryland and Virginia describe design-day-based capacity assignment and emergency provisions, but no volume.7 The public record doesn't show these things for this metro: a current design-day margin (supply compared with demand on the design day); Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage supply; a Columbia Gas of Virginia design day; the share of Washington Gas supply from each pipeline; and any local gas load from data centers. A 2018-19 Washington Gas design-day margin was read on a web page and not saved; it is eight winters old and too old to rate.6 For Washington DC including Northern Virginia, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook issued October 15, 2026 gives 40.0% above normal, 33.3% near normal and 26.7% below normal for both November 2026 to January 2027 and December 2026 to February 2027; these are NOAA's probabilities for a three-month average temperature, not a forecast of specific days or of an outage.25

Baltimore

Pipelines supplying the Baltimore area N Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Transco Transco Transco Transco Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Transco Transco Transco Transco Baltimore Baltimore Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel County Baltimore County Baltimore County Baltimore city Baltimore city Carroll County Carroll County Harford County Harford County Howard County Howard County Queen Anne's County Queen Anne's County Washington Washington Alexandria Alexandria Frederick Frederick Gaithersburg Gaithersburg Bowie Bowie Lancaster Lancaster Leesburg Leesburg York York Manassas Manassas Hagerstown Hagerstown Annapolis Annapolis Dover Dover College Park College Park Chester Chester Newark Newark I-95 I-95 I-76 I-76 I-70 I-83 I-295 I-81 I-66 US-50 US-30 I-695 US-15 I-270 MD 32 US-1 MD 295 I-97 VA 7 US-13 Chester Co. Chester Co. Franklin County Franklin County Frederick Co. Frederick Co. Kent County Kent County Lancaster County Lancaster County Sussex Co. Sussex Co. York County York County Pipelines supplying the Baltimore area Other gas pipelines Highways Baltimore metro area (6 counties) County lines Cities and towns
Figure 2. Major natural gas pipelines serving Baltimore. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data. Counties, places, state outline and population: U.S. Census Bureau. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

Baltimore is matched to market area 28, the operating area for Washington DC and Baltimore, because Columbia lists a delivery point named for BGE there.24 Its Columbia critical-day record is the Washington DC and Baltimore record above.26 Transco zone 6 covers BGE's delivery point; the imbalance order counts for zone 6 are in the table above.11 Market area 28 holds two Columbia constraints that were at zero non-firm availability on most winter days, Loudoun and Rutledge North, and a receipt constraint, Rutledge South, at zero in every season; a force majeure on Line 1804 in February 2025 named market areas 22, 23, 24 and 28 (table above).26 BGE's tariffs describe a design-day-based assignment and a curtailment order, with no supply volume.7 No design-day demand, peak-day volume or portfolio table is in any BGE document reviewed. The public record doesn't show these things for Baltimore: BGE's design day or supply total for a current year; its Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage supply; the number of times BGE issued its own operational flow orders or Gas Production Days; and any local gas load from new generation.6 For Baltimore, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook issued October 15, 2026 gives 40.0% above normal, 33.3% near normal and 26.7% below normal for both November 2026 to January 2027 and December 2026 to February 2027; these are NOAA's probabilities for a three-month average temperature, not a forecast of specific days or of an outage.27

What's new (as of October 28, 2026)

No filing dated in the past 90 days was found for Baltimore that changes its gas record. On its second-quarter 2026 results call, released July 30, 2026, AltaGas said two data center pipeline connection projects in Virginia and Maryland remain on schedule for completion in the fourth quarter of 2026. A federal notice of August 12, 2026 on an environmental assessment describes the Mountain Valley Boost project as an interstate expansion of about 600,000 dekatherms of service, which we do not link to either metro.28

What should facilities in these metros check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Which utility, pipeline and rate. Confirm which utility serves each site and its interruption and balancing terms, because the notices reviewed name pipelines and market areas, not utilities.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Upcoming records. Track each utility's design day statements and any supply plan filing, which would allow a rating.

Frequently asked questions

Why are Washington DC, Northern Virginia and Baltimore not rated?

Neither Washington Gas nor BGE publishes a supply-versus-demand balance for a current year in the records reviewed; the figures found are tariff rules and one margin too old to use.7 See 'Why these two metros are not rated.'

Do Columbia's critical days mean Washington or Baltimore customers lost gas?

No. The notices restrict shippers' takes above firm entitlement in named operating areas and do not say which utilities or customers were affected; this page makes no prediction about outages.26 See 'Winter by winter: distinct critical-day events in Operating Area 10.'

Are Transco's imbalance orders the same as Columbia's critical days?

No. They are a different measure of balancing in named zones, Transco's notices say they do not affect delivery of scheduled gas, and the two counts are never added on this page.11 See 'Transco imbalance orders, shown separately.'

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Understand your capacity exposure

Discovery Energy reviews service elections, interruption terms and regulatory proceedings for organizations across the U.S. and Canada, so capacity changes are understood before they reach the bill.

Schedule a review

Notes

  1. Metro delineation: OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023), as carried in the project's metro list. The federal definition is Office of Management and Budget Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023). The Washington-Arlington-Alexandria counties are the District of Columbia; Charles, Frederick, Montgomery and Prince George's counties in Maryland; Arlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Rappahannock, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Warren counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas and Manassas Park in Virginia; and Jefferson County in West Virginia. The Baltimore-Columbia-Towson counties are Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, Howard and Queen Anne's counties and Baltimore city, Maryland.
  2. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. Notice cited for the 2025-26 count of 55 gas days in the summary line, key takeaway 2 and the winter-by-winter section: Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25980112, February 20, 2026. The notices do not say which utilities or customers were affected. ↩
  3. Washington Gas, BGE and Columbia Gas of Virginia tariffs and filings:. Utility statements are the utilities' own; no regulator finding is shown on this page. ↩
  4. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, critical notices and Index of Customers on the Williams 1Line site, public postings downloaded October 27, 2026; facts are paraphrased and counts and tables are Discovery Energy's own. The notices say the imbalance orders do not affect delivery of scheduled gas. No verbatim Transco text is used. Notice dates are posting dates. Notices cited in key takeaway 3: zone 6, Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 16225021, November 6, 2025; zone 5, Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 16336705, December 11, 2025. ↩
  5. NOAA Applied Climate Information System, monthly heating degree days base 65F and 1991-2020 normals for the Reagan National, Dulles and Baltimore-Washington airport stations; computed. ↩
  6. Records not found or not reached: Washington Gas and BGE design-day demand and firm supply for a current year; Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage notices and Index of Customers (the site's disallows automated access); Maryland PSC dockets (the system returned an error to automated downloads); Virginia SCC and DC PSC dockets; a Washington Gas figure for 2018-19 that was read on a web page and not saved; BGE's current supply plan; notices of other pipelines serving the metros; and any gas-side policy for large loads. ↩
  7. Washington Gas, BGE and Columbia Gas of Virginia tariffs and filings:. Utility statements are the utilities' own; no regulator finding is shown on this page. ↩
  8. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. ↩
  9. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, critical notices and Index of Customers on the Williams 1Line site, public postings downloaded October 27, 2026; facts are paraphrased and counts and tables are Discovery Energy's own. The notices say the imbalance orders do not affect delivery of scheduled gas. No verbatim Transco text is used. Notice dates are posting dates. ↩
  10. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, critical notices and Index of Customers on the Williams 1Line site, public postings downloaded October 27, 2026; facts are paraphrased and counts and tables are Discovery Energy's own. The notices say the imbalance orders do not affect delivery of scheduled gas. No verbatim Transco text is used. Notice dates are posting dates. Notices cited for the force majeure through Station 517 and Station 115: Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 16347263, December 14, 2025 (Station 517); Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 16544208, February 8, 2026 (Station 115). ↩
  11. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, critical notices and Index of Customers on the Williams 1Line site, public postings downloaded October 27, 2026; facts are paraphrased and counts and tables are Discovery Energy's own. The notices say the imbalance orders do not affect delivery of scheduled gas. No verbatim Transco text is used. Notice dates are posting dates. Notices for the four cold-weather operational alerts: Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Alert Notice 14227183, January 11, 2024; Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Alert Notice 15220754, December 18, 2024; Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Alert Notice 16336722, December 11, 2025; Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Alert Notice 16455061, January 15, 2026. ↩
  12. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. ↩
  13. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. ↩
  14. NOAA Applied Climate Information System, monthly heating degree days base 65F and 1991-2020 normals for the Reagan National, Dulles and Baltimore-Washington airport stations; computed; Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. ↩
  15. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed. []. ↩
  16. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012; Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, critical notices and Index of Customers on the Williams 1Line site, public postings downloaded October 27, 2026; facts are paraphrased and counts and tables are Discovery Energy's own. The notices say the imbalance orders do not affect delivery of scheduled gas. No verbatim Transco text is used. Notice dates are posting dates. ↩
  17. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860M, September 2026 release, gas-fired units in the counties of the two metros, counted; Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission presentation. ↩
  18. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860M, September 2026 release, gas-fired units in the counties of the two metros, counted; Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission presentation. ↩
  19. Discovery Energy data center scan log, October 28, 2026; a search that finds nothing does not prove that no project exists. ↩
  20. AltaGas Ltd., Q4 and full year 2025 results news release (2026-03-06), Q4 2025 results release, utilities section; AltaGas Ltd., Q1 2026 Financial Report (MD&A) (2026-04-30), Q1 2026 report, Utilities section. AltaGas said in its results release of March 6, 2026 that it executed an agreement for infrastructure for the first phase of a 24 megawatt data center in Maryland, and said on April 30, 2026 that a second agreement is for back-up power generation at an existing 15 megawatt data center. ↩
  21. AltaGas Ltd., Q4 and full year 2025 results news release (2026-03-06), Q4 2025 results release, utilities section.
  22. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. Notice cited for the 24, 34 and 55 gas days in the Washington DC section: Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25980112, February 20, 2026. ↩
  23. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. Notices cited for the Line VB force majeure and the Lost River operational flow order: Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 25891210, January 12, 2024 (Line VB); Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 25891244, January 22, 2024 (Lost River). ↩
  24. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. ↩
  25. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed. []. ↩
  26. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. Notice cited for the 24, 34 and 55 gas days in the Baltimore section: Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25980112, February 20, 2026. ↩
  27. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed. []. ↩
  28. AltaGas Ltd., Q2 2026 results call transcript (2026-07/08 (Q2 call; release 2026-07-30)), transcript, prepared remarks on data centre pipeline connection projects; FERC / Federal Register, Notice of Availability of EA, Mountain Valley Pipeline Boost Project (2026-16435), FERC Docket CP26-14-000 per news search; docket text not confirmed in saved notice (2026-08-12), Federal Register notice of availability of EA, Vol. 91 No. 154, summary; Discovery Energy data center scan log, October 28, 2026; a search that finds nothing does not prove that no project exists. ↩
  29. Distinct events counted by Discovery Energy from Columbia's critical notices posted October 2023 to October 2026. The Virginia/Maryland operating area covers both metros, so the counts are identical for both. ↩
  30. Runs of imbalance operational flow order coverage and the days covered, counted by Discovery Energy from Transco notices posted October 2023 to March 2026. Some orders ended on a terminating notice and some are closed by the next order where the export holds no terminating notice. ↩
  31. Counted by Discovery Energy from Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Operationally Available Capacity postings, TC eConnects, accessed October 26, 2026; unparsed days are excluded. The denominator is the parsed gas days. ↩
  32. Contracts listed under each utility's name as shipper in Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Index of Customers, and Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Index of Customers, quarter beginning October 1, 2026, accessed October 27, 2026; Dth per day; tabulated by Discovery Energy (Columbia list regex-parsed, not hand-checked). ↩
  33. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Index of Customers and location data, accessed October 27, 2026. ↩
  34. Discovery Energy data center scan log, October 28, 2026; a search that finds nothing does not prove that no project exists.

Sources

  1. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices, market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings, unsubscribed capacity report and Index of Customers, TC eConnects, saved October 26 and 27, 2026.
  2. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, critical notices, location data and Index of Customers, Williams 1Line information postings, accessed October 27, 2026. Link
  3. Washington Gas Light Company, tariffs for the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia. Link
  4. Baltimore Gas and Electric Company, Gas Supplier Tariff, Schedule IS and curtailment plan. Link
  5. NOAA Applied Climate Information System, monthly heating degree days. Link
  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860M, September 2026 release. Link
  7. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  8. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook, GIS data, issued October 15, 2026, saved October 28, 2026. Link
  9. Data center scan records saved October 28, 2026 (AltaGas Ltd., Delaware and West Virginia agencies, Federal Register and others) are listed in the Notes.

Sources: Discovery Energy compilation from public FERC-required pipeline operational notices, capacity reports, and Indexes of Customers postings as published by the interstate pipelines serving this metro, and from public gas-utility documents. Discovery Energy is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any pipeline, utility, or regulator named on this page. All trademarks and names remain the property of their respective owners. Counts, summaries, tables, and charts are original Discovery Energy compilations; readers should verify against the cited notices. Data current as of October 27, 2026. For information only and not a guarantee of future pipeline operations, capacity, or pricing. - NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook, GIS data, issued October 15, 2026, saved October 28, 2026. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/seasonal.php - Data center scan records saved October 28, 2026 (AltaGas Ltd., Delaware and West Virginia agencies, Federal Register and others) are listed in the Notes.