Richmond natural gas winter stress record: not rated, 55 critical gas days in 2025-26

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Published November 2, 2026.

Metro used: the Richmond, VA metropolitan area, as the federal government defined it in the Office of Management and Budget Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023). The page covers the gas utilities named in the records read, Columbia Gas of Virginia, Inc. ("Columbia Gas of Virginia") and the City of Richmond's gas utility, Richmond Gas Works, and the pipeline record of Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC ("Columbia") Operating Area 1, which also covers Market Area 34 (Norfolk).¹

Key takeaways

Why Richmond is not rated

Richmond is not rated because no public source gives a supply-versus-demand balance for a current year, and we rate a metro only when one is available. Neither Columbia Gas of Virginia nor Richmond Gas Works publishes one in the records read. The City's pages found are customer, billing and environmental pages with no tariff, curtailment plan or design-day figure. Columbia Gas of Virginia's documents describe how capacity is assigned and how service is restricted, but its only volume is a 2007 supply-side figure, too old to rate (see the Richmond section below). If either utility states its design-day margin in writing, or a filing gives one, Richmond can be rated at the next update.³

Who serves the Richmond area?

Richmond is served by Columbia Gas of Virginia and Richmond Gas Works. Columbia's notices are posted for an operating area that covers both Richmond and Norfolk, so the counts on this page describe both, and the notices do not separate them. We matched Richmond to Columbia's Richmond market area (market area 33), part of the Southeastern Virginia operating area, because Columbia lists delivery points named for Columbia Gas of Virginia and for the City of Richmond there.¹² The counts below describe two pipelines, Columbia and Transco. Transco's zone 5 counts are shown separately and are not tied to Richmond, because none of its listed Columbia Gas of Virginia delivery points lies in the Richmond counties.²⁶ Other pipelines may also serve Richmond; their notices were not read, so the counts describe only part of the supply and may understate or overstate its exposure.⁶

The escalation ladders: pipeline and utility

Columbia warns in steps, and the "critical days" counted on this page are the last step. Its notices show a sequence of operational alerts, pre-operational flow order warnings, flow orders for receipt points, and then transport critical days for named operating areas.² Each critical day carries a tariff penalty for takes above firm entitlement. Columbia Gas of Virginia has its own sequence in its tariff. The tariff sheets are dated 2016 and 2017 and may not be the current revision. The sequence begins with an Operational Alert, a request for voluntary action, and a Balancing Service Restriction tested against firm capacity and supply excluding the company's dedicated non-storage peaking supplies. It then provides for the interruption of non-firm services. For firm service, it provides a curtailment order that begins with Priority 8, boiler fuel and ends with Priority 1, residential service. An operational flow order for Choice suppliers is also described in the tariff text, but its wording could not be verified from the scanned file. These are statements of the tariff; no declaration of any step was searched for or counted.³ No tariff, curtailment order or escalation ladder for Richmond Gas Works was found in the City's published pages.⁶

Winter by winter: distinct critical-day events in Operating Area 1

Columbia declared critical days in all three winters, in 9, 6 and 4 separate episodes (table below).²⁷ An episode is one unbroken run of critical days for the operating area, and winters run from 1 November to 31 March.²⁵

Critical-day episodes and gas days in each winter, for the Richmond and Norfolk operating area.²

The table below lists each episode.

Each episode of critical days for the Richmond and Norfolk operating area, with its start date, lift date and gas days.⁷

Transco imbalance orders, shown separately

Transco's imbalance orders are a different measure from Columbia's critical days, and the two counts are not added. Transco's imbalance operational flow orders require shippers in named zones to keep their imbalances within a tolerance, and Transco's notices say they do not affect delivery of scheduled gas. We show the zone 5 count separately because it is not tied to Richmond's delivery points (see 'Who serves the Richmond area?').⁴

Zone 5 imbalance orders by winter: runs, days covered and first notice.⁸

In 2025-26 Transco issued many short notices, so the run counts differ in character from earlier winters.²⁵ Transco also posted force majeure notices (emergency outages or repairs) limiting primary firm transportation through Station 517 on its Leidy line from December 2025 and through Station 115 in February 2026.²⁸ The notices do not state whether either reached Virginia delivery points.⁹ Transco posted four system-wide cold-weather operational alerts in the three winters, in January 2024, December 2024, December 2025 and January 2026.¹⁰

Other Columbia events naming this area

One other Columbia event named this area: a force majeure on Line VM-107 in the Richmond market area, from 2023-11-29 to 2023-12-07.⁷ In our summary, the notice anticipates no impact to firm service and names non-firm interruptions at Bickers (Richmond market area). The notices read do not state whether any customer service was affected.

Documented local constraints

Columbia's daily capacity postings show whether non-firm service was available through named internal constraints, and zero means Columbia offered none through that point that gas day. Zero non-firm availability occurred on days with no critical day, so it is a cold-season condition and not the same measure as a critical day.¹¹

Gas days with zero non-firm capacity at three Columbia delivery constraints in the Richmond market area, out of the parsed gas days, by winter and in summer.¹²

Hopewell is open on every parsed day. How the days were counted, and what summer means here, is in the notes.²⁵

Weather against normal

Heating degree days (a measure of how cold the weather was) from November to March at the Richmond airport weather station were 84.5%, 94.4% and 99.8% of the 1991-2020 normal in 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26, using NOAA's Applied Climate Information System data.¹³ Winter 2023-24 was the mildest of the three, yet Columbia declared critical days in all three winters, and the count rose as the winters got colder; three winters are not enough to separate weather from how Columbia chose to use critical days.¹⁴ NOAA's October 15, 2026 outlook leans toward above-normal temperatures for Richmond in December 2026 to February 2027 and is nearly evenly split for November 2026 to January 2027; the full probabilities are in the note.²³

Firm contract end dates, and what they do not show

A contract end date is not an end of service. Columbia's own capacity report assumes all right-of-first-refusal (ROFR) rights are exercised indefinitely, so a contract with that right may be renewed. The pipelines' published customer lists (each called an Index of Customers) show each shipper's firm contracts with end dates. The table sums transport contracts that had not passed their primary term on October 27, 2026, by the year the term ends, in dekatherms (Dth, a unit of gas energy) per day. It shows separately contracts past their primary term, which may still run. It does not measure any utility's total firm supply, because storage held on other pipelines, agent-held contracts and capacity on other pipelines are not in it.¹²

Firm transport contracts of the City of Richmond and Columbia Gas of Virginia on Columbia and Transco, in Dth per day, by the year they end.¹⁶

Columbia Gas of Virginia's contracts serve its whole system, not only Richmond. How the table was built is in the notes.²⁵

New large gas loads

The only new large gas load the EIA lists in the Richmond counties is four planned gas-fired units at Chesterfield, and the records read do not name a gas supplier or volume for them. The EIA's monthly generator inventory (September 2026 release) lists the four units at 250 MW each, with an expected date of June 2029 and regulatory approvals pending, and four canceled or postponed units in Charles City County.⁵ Dominion Energy says the Chesterfield project will not require new pipelines or transmission infrastructure beyond Dominion-owned property.¹⁷ This page does not convert megawatts to gas demand. A Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) order in docket CP16-493, issued September 6, 2017, authorized an additional 45,000 Dth per day of firm transportation on Columbia for two existing customers, the City of Richmond and Columbia Gas of Virginia.²⁹ It predates the three winters shown and its in-service date was not found.¹⁸ Data centers: as of October 28, 2026, the official records searched show no gas data center load for Richmond.¹⁹ The Virginia State Corporation Commission docket search and the Virginia permit pages block automated access and were not read.

Policy context

No Virginia policy, order or rule specific to natural gas service for large new loads was found in the official sources read, so none is described here. The Virginia State Corporation Commission's docket search disallows automated access and was not read.⁶

Richmond

Richmond's critical-day record is the Richmond and Norfolk record above.²⁰ Columbia's market area 33 holds three constraints (see the table above): Bickers and Louisa often had zero non-firm availability in winter 2025-26, and Hopewell never did. A force majeure on Line VM-107 in November and December 2023 named non-firm interruptions at Bickers.²¹ Columbia Gas of Virginia describes its retained assets, which include Lynchburg LNG (liquefied natural gas) and propane plants and Saltville Storage, in a 2013 plan; no volumes are stated.³ The public record doesn't show a design-day demand or firm supply total for either utility for a current year. It also doesn't show the City's gas tariff or curtailment order, the gas supplier and volume for the Chesterfield plant, or whether the operational flow order in Columbia Gas of Virginia's tariff is current. A Columbia Gas of Virginia tariff sheet gives a peak day firm delivery portfolio of 414,835 Dth as of July 12, 2007. It is a supply-side figure that is 19 years old, with no demand figure to compare, and is too old to rate.²²

What's new (as of October 28, 2026)

No filing dated in the past 90 days was found that changes the gas record for Richmond. The EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists the four planned Chesterfield units, and no filing read says how they will be supplied with gas.²⁴

What should facilities in these metros check now?

• Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
• Which utility, pipeline and rate. Confirm which utility serves each site and its interruption and balancing terms, because the notices read name pipelines and market areas, not utilities.
• Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
• Upcoming records. Track each utility's design day statements and any supply plan filing, which would allow a rating.

Frequently asked questions

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

• Detroit natural gas capacity case study (outlook: High)

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Notes

1. Metro delineation: OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023), as carried in the project's metro list. The counties are Amelia, Charles City, Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, King and Queen, King William, New Kent, Powhatan, Prince George and Sussex counties, and Colonial Heights city, Hopewell city, Petersburg city and Richmond city, Virginia. Richmond has one section and one map.
2. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings, unsubscribed capacity report and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. Source of the 2025-26 count of 55 gas days, used in the summary line and key takeaway 2: Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25980112, February 20, 2026. ↩
3. Columbia Gas of Virginia tariff and Choice documents:; the tariff sheets are dated 2016 and 2017 and may not be the current revision. Utility statements are the utility's own; no regulator finding is shown on this page. ↩
4. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, critical notices, location data and Index of Customers on the Williams 1Line site, public postings downloaded October 27, 2026; facts are paraphrased and counts and tables are Discovery Energy's own. The notices say the imbalance orders do not affect delivery of scheduled gas. No verbatim Transco text is used. Notice dates are posting dates. Source of the 2025-26 zone 5 count of 19 gas days in key takeaway 3: Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 16336705, December 11, 2025. ↩
5. FERC order in docket CP16-493; Dominion Energy project page for the Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center; U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860M, September 2026 release, gas-fired units in the counties of the metro, counted. ↩
6. Records not found or not reached: a City of Richmond gas tariff, curtailment plan or design-day figure; a Columbia Gas of Virginia design-day demand and firm supply total for a current year (its supply testimony in Virginia SCC case PUR-2024-00030 needs a manual download, because the SCC site disallows automated access); a current Columbia Gas of Virginia tariff revision; the gas supplier and volume for the Chesterfield plant; the SCC order for the plant; notices of other pipelines serving Richmond; and any gas-side policy for large loads. ↩
7. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings, unsubscribed capacity report and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. For the Line VM-107 force majeure, the first notice was Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 25888238, November 29, 2023, and the last was Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 25889212, December 7, 2023. ↩
8. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, critical notices, location data and Index of Customers on the Williams 1Line site, public postings downloaded October 27, 2026; facts are paraphrased and counts and tables are Discovery Energy's own. The notices say the imbalance orders do not affect delivery of scheduled gas. No verbatim Transco text is used. Notice dates are posting dates. First 2025-26 notice shown in the table caption: Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Flow Order Notice 16336705, December 11, 2025. ↩
9. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, critical notices, location data and Index of Customers on the Williams 1Line site, public postings downloaded October 27, 2026; facts are paraphrased and counts and tables are Discovery Energy's own. The notices say the imbalance orders do not affect delivery of scheduled gas. No verbatim Transco text is used. Notice dates are posting dates. ↩
10. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, critical notices, location data and Index of Customers on the Williams 1Line site, public postings downloaded October 27, 2026; facts are paraphrased and counts and tables are Discovery Energy's own. The notices say the imbalance orders do not affect delivery of scheduled gas. No verbatim Transco text is used. Notice dates are posting dates. The four alerts were Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Alert Notice 14227183, January 11, 2024; Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Alert Notice 15220754, December 18, 2024; Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Alert Notice 16336722, December 11, 2025; and Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Operational Alert Notice 16455061, January 15, 2026. ↩
11. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings, unsubscribed capacity report and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. ↩
12. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings, unsubscribed capacity report and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. The Southeastern Virginia operating area consists of the Richmond and Norfolk market areas. We made the match to market area 33 from Columbia's market area and operating area descriptions and its locations report. ↩
13. NOAA Applied Climate Information System, monthly heating degree days base 65F and 1991-2020 normals for the Richmond International Airport station; computed. ↩
14. NOAA Applied Climate Information System, monthly heating degree days base 65F and 1991-2020 normals for the Richmond International Airport station; computed; Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings, unsubscribed capacity report and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. ↩
15. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed. [].
16. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings, unsubscribed capacity report and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012; Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, critical notices, location data and Index of Customers on the Williams 1Line site, public postings downloaded October 27, 2026; facts are paraphrased and counts and tables are Discovery Energy's own. The notices say the imbalance orders do not affect delivery of scheduled gas. No verbatim Transco text is used. Notice dates are posting dates. ↩
17. FERC order in docket CP16-493; Dominion Energy project page for the Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center; U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860M, September 2026 release, gas-fired units in the counties of the metro, counted. ↩
18. FERC order in docket CP16-493; Dominion Energy project page for the Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center; U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860M, September 2026 release, gas-fired units in the counties of the metro, counted. ↩
19. Discovery Energy data center scan log, October 28, 2026; a search that finds nothing does not prove that no project exists. ↩
20. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings, unsubscribed capacity report and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. Source of the 2025-26 count of 55 gas days in the Richmond section: Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25980112, February 20, 2026. ↩
21. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026; market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings, unsubscribed capacity report and Index of Customers. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. Source of the force majeure on Line VM-107 in the Richmond section: Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 25888238, November 29, 2023. ↩
22. Columbia Gas of Virginia tariff and Choice documents:; the tariff sheets are dated 2016 and 2017 and may not be the current revision. Utility statements are the utility's own; no regulator finding is shown on this page; Records not found or not reached: a City of Richmond gas tariff, curtailment plan or design-day figure; a Columbia Gas of Virginia design-day demand and firm supply total for a current year (its supply testimony in Virginia SCC case PUR-2024-00030 needs a manual download, because the SCC site disallows automated access); a current Columbia Gas of Virginia tariff revision; the gas supplier and volume for the Chesterfield plant; the SCC order for the plant; notices of other pipelines serving Richmond; and any gas-side policy for large loads. ↩
23. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026 (GIS shapefiles; the favored category at the metro's principal county); the favored category's probability is NOAA's labelled value for the area, and the other two categories follow NOAA's published convention for the 3-class outlook maps, computed. []. For Richmond, NOAA's outlook gives 33.0% above normal, 33.3% near normal and 33.7% below normal for November 2026 to January 2027, and 40.0% above normal, 33.3% near normal and 26.7% below normal for December 2026 to February 2027. These are NOAA's probabilities for a three-month average temperature, not a forecast of specific days or of an outage. ↩
24. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860M, September 2026 release, Planned sheet, gas-fired units counted from the saved file; Discovery Energy data center scan log, October 28, 2026; a search that finds nothing does not prove that no project exists. ↩
25. Method notes. Metro definition: Office of Management and Budget Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023). Winter: 1 November to 31 March. Episode (event): one run of transport critical-day status for the operating area; the day it is lifted is not counted. Storage critical days carry the same dates and are counted as the same events. Routine operational alerts and capacity postings are not counted as events. Distinct events were counted by Discovery Energy from Columbia's critical notices posted October 2023 to October 2026; the Southeastern Virginia operating area covers Richmond and Norfolk, so the counts describe both and the notices do not separate them. In the episode table, start and lift are the first and last gas days of the episode for the area. Transco runs of imbalance operational flow order coverage and the days covered were counted by Discovery Energy from Transco notices posted October 2023 to March 2026; in 2025-26 Transco issued many short notices, so run counts differ in character from earlier winters. Some orders ended on a terminating notice and some are closed by the next order where the export holds no terminating notice. Zero non-firm capacity counts are gas days at Columbia delivery constraints in the Richmond market area, by winter, with the denominator of parsed gas days; summer means June to August; unparsed days are excluded. They were counted by Discovery Energy from Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Operationally Available Capacity postings, TC eConnects, accessed October 26, 2026. Contract table: contracts listed under each shipper's name in Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Index of Customers, and Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Index of Customers, quarter beginning October 1, 2026, accessed October 27, 2026; Dth per day; tabulated by Discovery Energy (Columbia list regex-parsed, not hand-checked). ↩
26. Transco's zone 5 counts are context only for Richmond, because none of its listed Columbia Gas of Virginia delivery points lies in the Richmond counties: Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Index of Customers and location data, accessed October 27, 2026. ↩
27. Source of the 39, 44 and 55 gas day counts in the winter-by-winter section: Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25980112, February 20, 2026. ↩
28. Transco force majeure notices: Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 16347263, December 14, 2025 (Station 517, Leidy line) and Force Majeure Notice 16544208, February 8, 2026 (Station 115). ↩
29. FERC order in docket CP16-493: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, docket CP16-493, accessed October 27, 2026. ↩

Sources

1. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices, market area and operating area descriptions, locations report, daily capacity postings, unsubscribed capacity report and Index of Customers, TC eConnects, saved October 26 and 27, 2026.
2. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, critical notices, location data and Index of Customers, Williams 1Line information postings, accessed October 27, 2026. Link
3. Columbia Gas of Virginia, Inc., gas tariff and Choice documents. Link
4. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, order in docket CP16-493.
5. Dominion Energy, Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center project page.
6. NOAA Applied Climate Information System, monthly heating degree days. Link
7. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860M, September 2026 release. Link
8. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
9. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook, GIS data, issued October 15, 2026, saved October 28, 2026. Link
10. Data center scan records saved October 28, 2026 (AltaGas Ltd., Delaware and West Virginia agencies, Federal Register and others) are listed in the Notes.

Sources: Discovery Energy compilation from public FERC-required pipeline operational notices, capacity reports, and Indexes of Customers postings as published by the interstate pipelines serving this metro, and from public gas-utility documents. Discovery Energy is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any pipeline, utility, or regulator named on this page. All trademarks and names remain the property of their respective owners. Counts, summaries, tables, and charts are original Discovery Energy compilations; readers should verify against the cited notices. Data current as of October 27, 2026. For information only and not a guarantee of future pipeline operations, capacity, or pricing. - NOAA Climate Prediction Center, official 90-day temperature outlook, GIS data, issued October 15, 2026, saved October 28, 2026. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/seasonal.php - Data center scan records saved October 28, 2026 (AltaGas Ltd., Delaware and West Virginia agencies, Federal Register and others) are listed in the Notes.