Ohio winter stress record: six metros not rated; Columbia's 34 critical days in 2025-26

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated October 2026.

Metro used: six Ohio metropolitan statistical areas, as the federal government defines them (OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, July 21, 2023): Columbus, Toledo, Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, Cleveland, Akron and Canton-Massillon.¹ They share one pipeline record, so they share this page, and each has its own section and map. The pipeline notices are for Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC ("Columbia") only. Columbia is one of several pipelines serving Ohio, and notices of the others were not read.

Key takeaways

Why these six metros are not rated

No public source gives these metros a supply-versus-demand balance, so none can be rated. We rate a metro only when a public source gives such a balance. The utilities' allocation documents assign capacity to meet a modeled design day and leave the rest to suppliers. The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio's (PUCO) case list shows no gas forecast filing by the four utilities since 2009.⁷ If a utility states its design day margin in writing, or a filing gives one, its metro can be rated at the next update.

Who serves each metro?

Each metro's winter record comes from the Columbia delivery area and operating area it matches, and some matches are firmer than others. We made the matches from Columbia's descriptions of its market areas and operating areas and from its locations report.¹³

Columbus, Toledo and Dayton are each matched to the Columbia delivery area of the same name, because each description names the city. All three are in the Toledo-Alliance-Columbus-Dayton operating area. Cleveland is matched to the Parma delivery area, in the Parma-Sandusky operating area. That match is an inference, because the Parma area is named for nearby places, not Cleveland. Canton-Massillon is matched to the Alliance delivery area, in the Toledo-Alliance-Columbus-Dayton operating area, and that match is also an inference.

The record doesn't settle Akron's delivery area. It could be Parma or Alliance (not confirmed), so its operating area could be the Parma-Sandusky or the Toledo-Alliance-Columbus-Dayton operating area.

Columbia's counts describe only Columbia's own system. Many Ohio utilities also take gas from other pipelines, and the notices of those pipelines were not read. So Columbia's critical days describe part of the supply for any metro and may understate or overstate its exposure.¹⁴

Columbia's escalation ladder, and the utilities' ladders

The critical days counted on this page are the last step in a sequence of Columbia notices: precursor alerts, then pre-operational flow order warnings for named meters (an operational flow order is an order telling shippers to keep their gas flows in balance), then transport and storage critical days for named operating areas.¹⁵

The Ohio utilities' own escalation ladders (the interruption and curtailment order in their tariffs and curtailment plans) were not read for this page. The public record doesn't show them.

Winter by winter: distinct critical-day events in the Ohio operating areas

The table gives the events behind each winter's count. A winter is 1 November to 31 March. An event is one run of critical-day status for an Ohio operating area, and the day it is lifted is left out of the day count. Storage critical days carry the same dates and are counted as the same events. Routine operational alerts and capacity postings are left out because they are not critical-day notices. Akron's operating area is the Parma-Sandusky or the Toledo-Alliance-Columbus-Dayton operating area, and the counts are identical for both.

Critical-day events and gas days in each Ohio operating area, by winter.⁶³

Six runs of critical days named an Ohio operating area.²⁵ The table gives each run's start date, the date its lift took effect, how many of its gas days named an Ohio area, and when the notice was posted.

The six runs of transport critical days that named an Ohio operating area.⁶⁴

An emergency outage or repair (force majeure) pressure hold on Line H in Muskingum County, near Zanesville, ran in November 2023 with no commercial impact stated at posting.²⁶ It is not tied to one metro.

Weather against normal

At all four stations, heating degree days (a measure of how cold the weather was) were below normal in 2023-24 and 2024-25 and above normal in 2025-26.²⁷

Heating degree days in each winter as a share of normal, at the airport weather station in each city.⁶⁵

Winter weather and NOAA's outlook

Akron and Canton-Massillon are not in the table above, so they are covered here. At the Akron-Canton Airport weather station, heating degree days from November to March were 90%, 100% and 106% of the 1991-2020 normal in winters 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26.⁴⁴

NOAA's latest outlook, issued October 15, 2026, leans toward warmer-than-normal weather for all six metros in both periods; it gives probabilities for a three-month average, not a forecast of specific days.⁴⁵

New large gas-fired loads in the Columbus counties

OPSB records show eight gas-fired power projects in the Fairfield, Licking and Pickaway county parts of the Columbus metro, and none states a gas supplier, a pipeline or a gas volume.¹² The figures are electric generating capacity, not gas volumes, and this page does not convert megawatts to gas demand.

Gas-fired MW and the stage of each of the eight projects, from OPSB records saved October 27, 2026.⁶⁶

The records name 3,786 MW in all: 520 MW authorized and 3,266 MW proposed or with no stage stated.²⁸ The Fairfield Energy Center's case page also lists an evidentiary hearing on September 17, 2026 and shows no decision.⁵¹

Columbia ran a non-binding open season (a call for customers to say whether they want new capacity) for a Columbus Area Project, with estimated capacity of up to 500,000 dekatherms (Dth, a unit of gas energy) per day for the growing Columbus area including New Albany. The estimated in-service date is as early as November 1, 2029. It is a potential project, with no binding commitment in the records read.²⁹

Socrates the Younger, a 250-megawatt gas-fired plant in Licking County, is not in the table above. The OPSB approved it on June 26, 2026.⁴⁸ Williams, the pipeline company, lists three Aristotle pipeline cases and two Aristotle booster station cases among the OPSB filings for its Socrates power projects, and links the Will-Power OH and Will-Power Pipeline OH siting cases. This is a company page, and the regulator's case records were not saved.⁴⁹

Pipelines for the Socrates plants, from the PUCO case record. Filings in a PUCO case, which approved a gas transportation agreement for Will-Power Pipeline OH, LLC, describe two pipelines for two natural gas-fired plants in New Albany. The Aristotle South pipeline, about 18 miles of 24-inch pipe, interconnects with Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage in Liberty Township, Fairfield County, and delivers gas to the Socrates South plant.⁵⁸ The Aristotle North pipeline, about 2.39 miles, interconnects with Columbia in Harlem Township, Delaware County, and delivers gas to the Socrates North plant.⁵⁹

The filing describes both plants as behind-the-meter (on the customer's side of the electric meter) gas-fired generating facilities in New Albany, Ohio.⁶⁰ On May 13, 2026 the Commission approved an interruptible transportation service agreement (gas delivery that the pipeline may interrupt) between Will-Power Pipeline and Sequent Energy Management LLC.⁶¹ This describes pipelines, not megawatts, so it is not added to the table or totals above.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) monthly generator inventory, in its September 2026 release, lists no gas-fired unit on its Planned sheet for Ohio, so none of these projects appears there.³⁰ Its October release was not available to download, and PJM's interconnection queue was not read (it requires a login). In the 26 counties of the six metros, the 15 planned rows in the September inventory are solar or battery units.⁵² The search of OPSB records covered the Columbus counties. The counties of Toledo, Dayton, Cleveland, Akron and Canton-Massillon were not searched for new gas-fired projects, so none is shown for them.

Data centers: As of October 28, 2026, OPSB records say most of the eight Columbus-county projects are to power a data center on the same site. The City of Hilliard describes a proposed 72.9-megawatt fuel cell plant, not in the table above, on Amazon's data center campus in Franklin County and says a separate 8-inch gas pipeline will provide the fuel; this comes from a city web page and not from an OPSB case, so it is a low-confidence source.⁵⁰

The four filings read in the PUCO case do not mention a data center, so this page does not connect the Socrates plants to one.⁶² No special contract between a gas utility and a data center was found in the official sources searched, and the PUCO case records could not be read.⁵³

Nearby: In Wood County (Toledo metro), the OPSB approved a 350-megawatt gas-fired plant, called Apollo, on February 3, 2026; it is to serve an adjacent data center and will not be physically connected to the electric grid.⁴⁶ In Carroll County (Canton-Massillon metro), the OPSB authorized Chestnut Run Energy LLC's 1,300-megawatt gas-fired combined-cycle plant on August 20, 2026, with commercial operation planned for 2030.⁴⁷ Neither release names a gas supplier or pipeline, so the records do not show whether the gas would come from a pipeline directly or through a local utility. No large gas load was found for Dayton, Cleveland or Akron in the records searched, which does not prove that none exists.

Ohio policy context

House Bill 15 became law on August 14, 2025. PUCO describes it as speeding up the OPSB's review of power plants and transmission lines and encouraging behind-the-meter power plants, and notes that the OPSB reviews power plants but does not select data center locations.³¹ On the electric side, PUCO ordered a separate customer class for data centers at AEP Ohio in summer 2025. On August 5, 2026, it ordered AEP Ohio to adopt measures protecting other customers from data center effects on energy prices.³² The policy sources read cover electricity and power plant review, not natural gas service. No Ohio policy, order or rule specific to natural gas service for large new loads was found in the official sources read, so none is described here.³³

Columbus

Columbus's critical-day record is Columbia's record for the Toledo-Alliance-Columbus-Dayton operating area. Columbus is mapped to Columbia's Columbus delivery area in that operating area, because the delivery area description names the city. A Columbia Gas of Ohio delivery point (where the pipeline hands gas to the utility) is listed there.³⁴ The winter-by-winter table above shows that record.³ For Columbus, the public record doesn't show the utilities' share of supply from pipelines other than Columbia, or a Columbus design day margin.

Toledo

Toledo shares the record of its operating area, and other Columbia notices relate to the Toledo area or northern Ohio. Toledo is mapped to Columbia's Toledo delivery area, in the Toledo-Alliance-Columbus-Dayton operating area. A Columbia Gas of Ohio delivery point is listed there.³⁵ A force majeure on Line D-76 in April 2025, after the winter window closed, reduced pressure and affected volumes to two meter stations behind that delivery point.³⁶ Columbia also posted a request for proposals for gas purchases to ensure sufficient flowing supply in northern Ohio.³⁷ It is an operating purchase, not a critical-day event. For Toledo, the public record doesn't show any winter event specific to the delivery area.

Dayton

Dayton has a local hourly delivery limit in addition to the operating area's critical days. Dayton is mapped to Columbia's Dayton delivery area, in the Toledo-Alliance-Columbus-Dayton operating area. Delivery points of Columbia Gas of Ohio and Duke Energy Ohio are listed there, and one named DAYTON-6 under the name National Fuel Gas Distribution of Ohio.³⁸ Shippers delivering to one Dayton-area delivery location had to flow at or below their maximum daily delivery obligation on an hourly basis. This applied on 10 gas days in 2023-24, 31 in 2024-25 and 52 in 2025-26. These are gas days on which a daily posting carried the requirement, not separate events. The days fall in 1, 2 and 6 separate runs of consecutive days.¹⁰ For Dayton, the public record doesn't show a design day margin. The 2026 sale does not change the notices read, which are Columbia's.

Cleveland

Cleveland is mapped by inference to Columbia's Parma delivery area, in the Parma-Sandusky operating area, so its critical-day record is that operating area's record. The description names Lorain and Parma, not Cleveland. Delivery points of Columbia Gas of Ohio and The East Ohio Gas Company are listed there.³⁹ The winter-by-winter table above shows that record.³ For Cleveland, the public record doesn't show the confirmation of the Parma mapping, or how much of the utility's supply comes from pipelines other than Columbia.

Akron

Akron's counts are the same whichever operating area serves it. The public record doesn't show Akron's delivery area. No Columbia delivery area description names Akron, and the delivery point in the files that sits in Stark County belongs to the Canton area. The Parma-Sandusky and Toledo-Alliance-Columbus-Dayton operating areas carried identical critical-day spans, so the counts do not depend on the choice.⁴⁰ Its record is therefore the record of either operating area, shown in the winter-by-winter table above.³ For Akron, the public record doesn't show the serving delivery area, the serving utilities' delivery points or any local constraint.

Canton-Massillon

Canton-Massillon is mapped to Columbia's Alliance delivery area by inference, from a Stark County delivery point of The East Ohio Gas Company and a delivery point of Columbia Gas of Ohio in that delivery area.⁴¹ It therefore shares the record of the Toledo-Alliance-Columbus-Dayton operating area, shown in the winter-by-winter table above.³ For Canton-Massillon, the public record doesn't show the share of the utility's supply from pipelines other than Columbia, or any local constraint.

What's new (as of October 28, 2026)

On October 6, 2026 the OPSB scheduled a local public hearing on Columbia Gas of Ohio's proposed Woodward Park pipeline replacement in Columbus, about 5.3 miles of 20-inch and 1.4 miles of 12-inch pipe.⁵⁴ On October 1, 2026 Columbia asked FERC for authority to plug and abandon one storage well in Holmes County, which is not part of these six metros.⁵⁷ No utility or regulator filing, order or approval that affects gas capacity was found for Toledo, Dayton, Cleveland or Akron in the sources searched.⁵⁶

What should facilities in these metros check now?

Four checks help facilities in these metros prepare before winter. - Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise. - Which utility and rate. Confirm which utility serves each site and its interruption terms, because the notices read name pipelines and delivery areas, not utilities. - Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December. - Upcoming records. Track the utilities' design day statements and any forecast filing, which would allow a rating.

Frequently asked questions

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

• Detroit natural gas capacity case study (outlook: High)

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Notes

1. Metro delineation: OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, July 21, 2023, as carried in the project's metro list; Canton-Massillon is from the project's industrial supplement file. The counties are, for Columbus, Delaware, Fairfield, Franklin, Hocking, Licking, Madison, Morrow, Perry, Pickaway and Union; for Toledo, Fulton, Lucas and Wood; for Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, Greene, Miami and Montgomery; for Cleveland, Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain and Medina; for Akron, Portage and Summit; and for Canton-Massillon, Carroll and Stark, all in Ohio.
2. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25981224, February 26, 2026, transport critical days for Ohio operating areas OA5 and OA7, winter 2025-26.
3. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25981224, February 26, 2026, transport critical days for Ohio operating areas OA5 and OA7, winter 2025-26. ↩
4. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25926740, February 11, 2025, transport critical days for Ohio operating areas OA5 and OA7, winter 2024-25; counts computed. ↩
5. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25891211, January 12, 2024, transport critical days for Ohio operating areas OA5 and OA7, winter 2023-24; counts computed. ↩
6. Records read for rating: the Ohio utilities' design day allocation documents and the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio's gas forecast case search (OH-RATE-TEST, October 26, 2026). No gas forecast filing after 2009 by the four utilities; allocation documents give no reserve margin. Utility statements and a case list; no claim is made beyond them.
7. Records read for rating: the Ohio utilities' design day allocation documents and the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio's gas forecast case search (OH-RATE-TEST, October 26, 2026). No gas forecast filing after 2009 by the four utilities; allocation documents give no reserve margin. Utility statements and a case list; no claim is made beyond them. ↩
8. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25981224, February 26, 2026 (winter 2025-26); Capacity Constraint Notice 25926740, February 11, 2025 (winter 2024-25); and Capacity Constraint Notice 25891211, January 12, 2024 (winter 2023-24); transport critical days for Ohio operating areas OA5 and OA7, and earlier notices; counts computed. ↩
9. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, operating area descriptions dated December 14, 2012: Operating Area 7 consists of Market Areas 1 (Toledo), 3, 4 (Alliance), 5 (Columbus), 6 (Dayton), 8 and 9; Operating Area 5 consists of Market Areas 2 (Parma) and 7 (Sandusky). ↩
10. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25891215, January 12, 2024, daily postings requiring shippers delivering to measurement location MLI 33-6 in Market Area 6 (Dayton) to flow at or below their Maximum Daily Delivery Obligation on an hourly basis; hourly-limit gas days counted from daily postings, and a run is a stretch of consecutive gas days. Also Capacity Constraint Notice 25966615 (warning of periods of limited flexibility to handle excess hourly takes in Market Area 6 for winter 2025-26) and a Pre-OFO notice, Notice 25890338, listing Market Area 6 meters in January 2024. ↩
11. National Fuel, news release dated October 1, 2026 and transition page. ↩
12. Ohio Power Siting Board case pages and news releases, opsb.ohio.gov, saved October 27, 2026; OPSB case numbers: Fairfield Energy Center 26-0160-EL-BGN; PowerConneX Ashville Energy Center 26-196-EL-BGN; Neo Power Generation 26-0627-EL-BGN; PowerConneX New Albany 3 26-361-EL-BGN; PowerConneX II New Albany 25-302-EL-BGN; Socrates North 25-0188-EL-BGN.; MW sums computed. ↩
13. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, market area descriptions (Market Area 1 Toledo, 2 Parma, 4 Alliance, 5 Columbus, 6 Dayton; the Parma description does not name Cleveland, and the Alliance description does not name Canton or Akron) and operating area descriptions dated December 14, 2012; locations report. Mapping by Discovery Energy. ↩
14. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026 (the earlier export gave identical winter counts); market area and operating area descriptions and the locations report. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. ↩
15. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, showing precursor alerts, pre-OFO warnings for named meters, and transport and storage critical days for named operating areas; the Ohio utilities' tariffs and curtailment plans were not read. ↩
16. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25891211, January 12, 2024; winter 2023-24 critical-day events and days, OA7 (Columbus, Toledo, Dayton, Akron, Canton-Massillon). ↩
17. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25891211, January 12, 2024; winter 2023-24 critical-day events and days, OA5 (Cleveland). ↩
18. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25926740, February 11, 2025; winter 2024-25 critical-day events and days, OA7 (Columbus, Toledo, Dayton, Akron, Canton-Massillon). ↩
19. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25926740, February 11, 2025; winter 2024-25 critical-day events and days, OA5 (Cleveland). ↩
20. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25981224, February 26, 2026; winter 2025-26 critical-day events and days, OA7 (Columbus, Toledo, Dayton, Akron, Canton-Massillon). ↩
21. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25981224, February 26, 2026; winter 2025-26 critical-day events and days, OA5 (Cleveland). ↩
22. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25924835, January 15, 2025, transport critical days for Ohio operating areas OA5 and OA7, winter 2024-25. ↩
23. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25967617, December 4, 2025, transport critical days for Ohio operating areas OA5 and OA7, winter 2025-26. ↩
24. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Capacity Constraint Notice 25974514, January 16, 2026, transport critical days for Ohio operating areas OA5 and OA7, winter 2025-26. ↩
25. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, lift of transport critical days, Notices 25891242, 25924835, 25929314, 25970634, 25979711 and 25981416; the Ohio areas ended 2024-01-13 to 2024-01-22, 2025-01-15 to 2025-01-26, 2025-02-16 to 2025-02-24, 2025-12-13 to 2025-12-16, 2026-01-17 to 2026-02-14 and 2026-02-28 to 2026-03-03 respectively. Episodes counted by Discovery Energy from the transport critical notices that named OA5 or OA7. ↩
26. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 25886810, November 5, 2023, pressure hold on Line H in Muskingum County, Ohio, near Zanesville. ↩
27. NOAA Applied Climate Information System, monthly heating degree days base 65F and 1991-2020 normals for the Columbus, Dayton, Toledo and Cleveland airport stations; computed. ↩
28. Ohio Power Siting Board case pages and news releases, opsb.ohio.gov, saved October 27, 2026, including the OPSB news releases of July 8, 2026, June 9, 2025 and July 24, 2025; the stage of Socrates North and Socrates South is from footnotes 1 and 2 on PDF page 2 of Will-Power Pipeline OH, LLC's application, PUCO Case No. 26-0380-PL-AEC; MW sums and totals computed. The table was corrected to the stages in Will-Power Pipeline's application, which cites an Opinion and Order of September 18, 2025 for Socrates North and automatic approval on June 5, 2025 for Socrates South; the OPSB news release read earlier gives June 9, 2025 for Socrates South, and this page states both and does not choose between them. ↩
29. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Notice 25964421, November 13, 2025, non-binding open season for a Columbus Area Project. ↩
30. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860M, September 2026 release; EIA counts computed. The October 2026 file was not available to download. ↩
31. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, Data centers and electricity page; Ohio Legislature, House Bill 15 status page. Official sources only. ↩
32. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, Data centers and electricity page, and news release of August 5, 2026. Official sources only; electric service. ↩
33. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, Data centers and electricity page and news release of August 5, 2026; Ohio Legislature, House Bill 15 status page. Official sources only; the pages read cover electricity. ↩
34. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Market Area 5 (Columbus) description, Operating Area 7 description, and locations report: delivery point COL GAS OH OP 07-5 listed in Market Area 5. ↩
35. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Market Area 1 (Toledo) description and locations report: delivery point COL GAS OH OP 07-1 listed in Market Area 1. ↩
36. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Force Majeure Notice 25933329, April 3, 2025, Line D-76, two meter stations behind Columbia Gas of Ohio's Toledo-area point. ↩
37. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Other Notice 25950526, September 18, 2025, binding request for proposals for gas purchases into its system in northern Ohio. ↩
38. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Market Area 6 (Dayton) description and locations report: delivery points DAYTON-6, COL GAS OH OP 07-6 and DUKE OHIO - 6 listed in Market Area 6. ↩
39. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Market Area 2 (Parma) description and locations report: delivery points EAST OHIO GAS CO-2 and COL GAS OH OP 05-2 listed in Market Area 2. ↩
40. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Market Area 4 (Alliance) description, which names neither Canton nor Akron, and locations report: delivery point EAST OHIO GAS CO- 4 in Market Area 4 in Stark County; the critical-day spans of OA5 and OA7 were identical (counts computed). ↩
41. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Market Area 4 (Alliance) description and locations report: delivery points EAST OHIO GAS CO- 4 (Stark County) and COL GAS OH OP 07-4 listed in Market Area 4. ↩
42. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices on TC eConnects, posted September 27, 2023 to October 27, 2026 (the earlier export gave identical winter counts); market area and operating area descriptions and the locations report. Manual browser downloads, October 26 and 27, 2026. The operating area descriptions are dated December 14, 2012. ↩
43. Missing records: the Ohio utilities' tariffs and curtailment plans; each utility's design day margin; the share of each utility's supply from other pipelines; notices of the other pipelines serving Ohio; Akron's market area; weather for Akron and Canton-Massillon; the gas supplier and gas volume for each large new generating project; PJM's interconnection queue; the EIA-860M October 2026 file; and any Ohio gas-side policy for large loads.
44. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) StnData web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals, November to March of winters 2023-24 to 2025-26, retrieved October 26 to 28, 2026: AKRON CANTON AP. Sums computed. The heating degree days were 4,122, 4,613 and 4,864 in the three winters, against a normal of 4,602. ↩
45. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, seasonal temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026, shapefiles lead1 (November to January) and lead2 (December to February) from ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/GIS/us_tempprcpfcst/seastemp_202610.zip, read at each metro's coordinates. The map gives the favored category and the lower edge of its probability band; NOAA's own explanation (Link) keeps near-normal at 33.3% and gives the opposite category the rest, so the above-normal figure is a floor and the below-normal figure a ceiling. For November 2026 to January 2027, Columbus, Toledo, Dayton, Akron and Canton-Massillon each have above-normal at least 40%, near-normal about 33% and below-normal no more than 27%. Cleveland has above-normal at least 50%, near-normal about 33% and below-normal no more than 17%. For December 2026 to February 2027, Columbus and Dayton each have above-normal at least 40%, near-normal about 33% and below-normal no more than 27%. Toledo, Cleveland, Akron and Canton-Massillon each have above-normal at least 50%, near-normal about 33% and below-normal no more than 17%. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued these three-month temperature outlooks on October 15, 2026; a lean toward warmer weather does not rule out cold days. ↩
46. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (OPSB bulletin via GovDelivery), OPSB news bulletin: OPSB authorizes construction of Wood County power plant, 25-973-EL-BGN, dated 2026-02-03, saved 2026-10-28; news release, paragraph 1. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (OPSB bulletin via GovDelivery), OPSB news bulletin: OPSB authorizes construction of Wood County power plant, 25-973-EL-BGN, dated 2026-02-03, saved 2026-10-28; news release, paragraph 1. ↩
47. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (OPSB bulletin via GovDelivery), OPSB news bulletin: OPSB approves energy projects in Carroll, Vinton, and Clinton and Fayette counties, 25-1065-EL-BGN, dated 2026-08-20, saved 2026-10-28; news release, Chestnut Run Energy section. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (OPSB bulletin via GovDelivery), OPSB news bulletin: OPSB approves energy projects in Carroll, Vinton, and Clinton and Fayette counties, 25-1065-EL-BGN, dated 2026-08-20, saved 2026-10-28; news release, Chestnut Run Energy section. ↩
48. Ohio Power Siting Board, OPSB news: OPSB authorizes construction of Licking County power plant, 26-0169-EL-BLN, dated 2026-06-26, saved 2026-10-28; news release, paragraph 1. ↩
49. Williams Companies (pipeline operator; company project page), Socrates Power Solution Facilities project page, 25-0561-GA-BLN; 25-0604-GA-BLN; 25-1163-GA-BLN; 26-0123-GA-BLN; 26-0170-GA-BLN, dated 2026-10-28, saved 2026-10-28; OPSB filings list. Williams Companies (pipeline operator; company project page), Socrates Power Solution Facilities project page, Will-Power Pipeline OH, LLC, dated 2026-10-28, saved 2026-10-28; OPSB filings intro. ↩
50. City of Hilliard, Ohio (municipal government), Data Center Fuel Cells FAQs, OPSB case number not located, dated 2026-10-28, saved 2026-10-28; FAQ: What is the Scioto Darby Creek Road Fuel Cell Project?. City of Hilliard, Ohio (municipal government), Data Center Fuel Cells FAQs, OPSB case number not located, dated 2026-10-28, saved 2026-10-28; FAQ: How will natural gas be supplied?. ↩
51. Ohio Power Siting Board, OPSB case page 26-0160-EL-BGN Fairfield Energy Center, dated 2026-10-28, saved 2026-10-28; case page. ↩
52. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory (EIA-860M), September 2026, dated 2026-09-30, saved 2026-10-28; Planned sheet, title cell and rows for the 26 counties. ↩
53. Searches of October 28, 2026: Ohio Power Siting Board news and case pages; OPSB bulletins; Federal Register FERC notices since July 30, 2026 for Columbia Gas Transmission, Eastern Gas Transmission, Rover, NEXUS and the six metros' counties; EIA-860M September 2026 (26 counties); Williams project page; Columbia Gas of Ohio filings; City of Hilliard page. Not searched: Public Utilities Commission of Ohio case records (dis.puc.state.oh.us is browser-only), PJM queue, Ohio EPA permits, pipeline postings. ↩
54. Ohio Power Siting Board, OPSB case page 25-0838-GA-BTX Woodward Park North Columbus High Pressure (NCHP) System Pipeline Project, dated 2026-10-06, saved 2026-10-28; case page. ↩
55. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (OPSB bulletin via GovDelivery), OPSB news bulletin: OPSB approves energy projects in Carroll, Vinton, and Clinton and Fayette counties, 25-1065-EL-BGN, dated 2026-08-20, saved 2026-10-28; news release, paragraph 1.
56. Searches of October 28, 2026: Ohio Power Siting Board news and case pages; OPSB bulletins; Federal Register FERC notices since July 30, 2026 for Columbia Gas Transmission, Eastern Gas Transmission, Rover, NEXUS and the six metros' counties; EIA-860M September 2026 (26 counties); Williams project page; Columbia Gas of Ohio filings; City of Hilliard page. Not searched: Public Utilities Commission of Ohio case records (dis.puc.state.oh.us is browser-only), PJM queue, Ohio EPA permits, pipeline postings. ↩
57. Federal Register (FERC notice), Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC; Notice of Request Under Blanket Authorization and Establishing Intervention and Protest Deadline (Holmes Well 10412 Abandonment Project), Columbia blanket certificate CP83-76-000, dated 2026-10-15, saved 2026-10-28; Federal Register notice 2026-21070, body. The well is in the Holmes Storage Field in Holmes County. ↩
58. Will-Power Pipeline OH, LLC (filing before the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio), Application of Will-Power Pipeline OH, LLC for approval of an interruptible transportation service agreement (with Exhibit A), Case No. 26-0380-PL-AEC, dated 2026-04-07, saved October 28, 2026; PDF page 2. ↩
59. Will-Power Pipeline OH, LLC (filing before the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio), Application of Will-Power Pipeline OH, LLC for approval of an interruptible transportation service agreement (with Exhibit A), Case No. 26-0380-PL-AEC, dated 2026-04-07, saved October 28, 2026; PDF page 2. ↩
60. Will-Power Pipeline OH, LLC (filing before the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio), Application of Will-Power Pipeline OH, LLC for approval of an interruptible transportation service agreement (with Exhibit A), Case No. 26-0380-PL-AEC, dated 2026-04-07, saved October 28, 2026; PDF page 1. ↩
61. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, Finding and Order, entered in the Journal May 13, 2026, Case No. 26-0380-PL-AEC, dated 2026-05-13, saved October 28, 2026; PDF page 1. ↩
62. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, case record 26-0380-PL-AEC: the application (April 7, 2026), the Staff Review and Recommendations (April 15, 2026), Will-Power Pipeline's letter of no objection (April 17, 2026) and the Finding and Order (May 13, 2026), saved from a browser download and registered October 28, 2026. Code found no mention of a data center in the text of the four documents. ↩
63. Method for the winter-by-winter table: distinct events counted by Discovery Energy from the critical notices posted October 2023 to October 2026 (see note 14), where an event is one run of critical-day status. ↩
64. Method for the table of six runs: episodes of transport critical days that named the Parma-Sandusky or the Toledo-Alliance-Columbus-Dayton operating area, counted by Discovery Energy. Start and lift are the first and last gas days of the whole episode; Ohio-area gas days are those for which an Ohio area was named. ↩
65. Method for the weather table: heating degree days, November to March, as a share of the 1991-2020 normal, for the airport weather stations at each city; Akron and Canton-Massillon are not in this table, and the Akron-Canton Airport station is covered in the next subsection. Source: NOAA ACIS, computed. ↩
66. Method for the table of projects: gas-fired MW as stated on the OPSB case pages and news releases saved October 27, 2026; batteries are not counted. Totals by Discovery Energy. The stages of Socrates North and Socrates South are from the footnotes of Will-Power Pipeline's application to the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. ↩

Sources

1. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, critical notices, market area and operating area descriptions and locations report, TC eConnects, saved October 26, 2026 (manual browser downloads).
2. Ohio Power Siting Board, case pages and news releases. Link
3. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, Data centers and electricity. Link
4. National Fuel, news release, October 1, 2026. Link
5. NOAA Applied Climate Information System, monthly heating degree days. Link
6. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.

Sources: Discovery Energy compilation from public FERC-required pipeline operational notices, capacity reports, and Indexes of Customers postings as published by the interstate pipelines serving this metro, and from public gas-utility documents. Discovery Energy is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any pipeline, utility, or regulator named on this page. All trademarks and names remain the property of their respective owners. Counts, summaries, tables, and charts are original Discovery Energy compilations; readers should verify against the cited notices. Data current as of October 27, 2026. For information only and not a guarantee of future pipeline operations, capacity, or pricing.