How the Data Center Tracking Index is built
How we size each campus, weight it by build stage, turn its load into grid and gas demand, rate it, and estimate what it adds to large energy users’ bills.
What the index covers
Data center campuses of 100 MW or more in the United States and Canada that entered service since 2021, or are under construction, approved, announced or proposed. Crypto-mining sites converting to AI and high-performance computing are included because their grid load behaves the same way. The preview edition lists 84 campuses, most of them gigawatt-scale. The tier between 100 MW and 1 GW is added region by region.
From announcement to expected load
Normalize the size
Published megawatts mean different things: IT load, facility load, utility service, on-site generation nameplate or campus potential. Each is converted to facility load. IT load is multiplied by a PUE of 1.2; on-site generation nameplate by 0.8, because plants are built with spare units.
Phase it to 2030
Campuses up to 1 GW count in full. Campuses of 1 to 3 GW count at 60%, and larger programs at 30%, for the share realistically energized by 2030.
Weight it by build stage
Announced load is not built load. Each status carries a probability, calibrated to observed attrition: PJM accepted about 34 of roughly 60 GW of utility-submitted 2030 data center load; Bernstein rates about 35% of the pipeline credible; Sightline finds 30% to 50% of 2026 projects delayed or cancelled; and AEP Ohio’s large-load queue fell from about 30 GW to 13 GW once its tariff required commitments.
Turn load into energy
Expected load runs at a 75% average load factor, reflecting how evenly data centers draw power. Annual energy is that average load across 8,760 hours.
Split grid from on-site power
Grid-served load affects electric rates. On-site load bypasses the grid but burns gas locally. Hybrid campuses are split by the size of their on-site plant.
| Status | Probability | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Operating | 100% | In service, no further phases announced |
| Operating, expanding | 90% | Partly energized; later phases under construction |
| Under construction | 80% | Site work underway |
| Approved | 65% | Utility agreement, grid allocation or zoning approval in hand |
| Announced | 35% | Named developer and site, no construction |
| Proposed | 15% | Developer only, no named tenant, power plan unresolved |
Natural gas demand
Gas burn equals average load times 24 hours times the heat rate, divided by the heat content of gas (1,036 Btu per cubic foot). On-site turbines and engines use 9,500 Btu/kWh and on-site fuel cells 7,000. Grid-served load uses 7,500 Btu/kWh, the combined-cycle range in EIA data, applied to each region’s share of new supply from gas: from none in Québec to 90% in Alberta and 60% in PJM. Campuses served by plants built for them, such as Meta’s Hyperion campus in Louisiana, count at 100% gas. Peak-day figures in Dth/d use a 95% load factor, because pipeline limits bind on the coldest days. As a check, 1 GW running flat on gas at 6,000 Btu/kWh comes to about 139 MMcf/d, in line with Enverus’s estimate of 140.
Electric bill effects
Where a market monitor puts a number on the data center share of capacity cost, we use it. In PJM, the 2028/29 auction cleared at $325 per MW-day and the independent market monitor attributes 38% of its cost to data center load. For a large user that is $325 × 365 × 38% = about $45,078 per MW of peak load contribution per year, or about $7.35 per MWh at a 70% load factor. As a cross-check, the monitor puts the data center capacity effect at $11.11 per MWh of total wholesale cost in the first half of 2026.
Energy-only markets (ERCOT, Alberta) and vertically integrated utilities are calibrated region by region from resource plans, rate cases, transmission plans and large-load tariff terms. Until then the index shows expected load and tariff protection, not a dollar figure. Large-load tariffs are rated Strong, Partial or Under review for how much data center cost they keep off other customers’ bills.
Impact rating
Each campus gets a grid score from its grid-served load by 2030 (under 150, 150 to 400, 400 to 800, 800 MW or more) and a gas score from its peak-day draw (under 25,000, 25,000 to 60,000, 60,000 to 120,000, 120,000 Dth/d or more). Regional grid gas counts at half weight. The rating is the higher of the two. Read the full impact rating explanation.
Calibration checks
| Measure | Index | Benchmark | Benchmark source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected data center load by 2030, all campuses | 52.9 GW | 62 GW new, 2026–2030 | Enverus, July 2026 (Lower 48) |
| PJM expected load by 2030 | 16.0 GW | 35.1 GW, 2026–2031 | PJM 2026 load forecast (accepted large loads) |
| Added gas burn by 2030 | 4.8 Bcf/d | 3 to 10 Bcf/d | Analyst range (S&P Global, PwC and others) |
The preview sits inside these ranges while still missing the 100 MW to 1 GW tier. As that tier is added, totals are checked again and build-stage probabilities tightened if the index runs hot.
Limits of this edition
- Most rows come from secondary trackers that often disagree with each other. Conflicts are noted in the dataset and graded D until resolved.
- Coverage is weighted to gigawatt-scale projects; smaller campuses, especially in Northern Virginia, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta, Columbus and Chicago, are not yet complete.
- Bill-cost figures are published for PJM only. Other regions follow as they are calibrated.
- Canadian coverage is limited to Alberta. Québec and Ontario are added in a later pass.
Sources
- dcmap.us: Largest US data centers by reported power (Oct 2026). Project sizes and status.
- Electricchoice: U.S. data center tracker (updated Oct 20, 2026). Project sizes and status.
- Blackridge Research: upcoming US data centers (Oct 2026). Project sizes and status.
- Business Insider via AOL: biggest US projects being built (Oct 2026). Meta El Paso and Lebanon, Nebius, CloudBurst.
- Newsweek: where the biggest data centers are being built (Oct 2026). PORTS, Hyperion, Delta.
- Cleanview: behind-the-meter data centers. On-site generation, xAI turbines.
- Texas Tribune: Texas data center gas plants (July 2026). Stargate Abilene on-site gas.
- Latitude Media: Is gas really winning the AI race?. Homer City, Abilene turbines.
- S&P Global: gas and AI power (2025). Entergy plants for Meta Hyperion.
- Government of Alberta: Is Alberta's grid ready?. AESO requests and peak.
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: 2024 U.S. Data Center Energy Use report. National context.
- EIA Electric Power Annual, Table 8.2: tested heat rates. Heat rates.
- EIA: combined-cycle utilization and heat rates. New combined-cycle heat rate.
- Enverus: data center gas demand. 1 GW ≈ 140 MMcf/d.
- Enverus: Off the grid, on the gas (July 2026). Capacity additions to 2030.
- Modo Energy: PJM 2026 load forecast. Submitted vs accepted data center load.
- Environ Energy: PJM 2028/29 auction. $325/MW-day; data center share 38%.
- MyChesCo: PJM market monitor report. $11.11/MWh data center effect.
- Citizens Utility Board: PJM auction results. Capacity price history.
- Calpine Solutions: PJM 2027/28 auction special report. 2026/27 and 2027/28 prices.
- Voltus: PJM 2027/28 results for C&I facilities. 2025/26 price.
- TechRadar: utilities requiring proof of projects. Cancelled or delayed load.
- AI Weekly summary of the Financial Times: credible pipeline. Bernstein 35% credible pipeline.
- Latitude Media: Sightline data center outlook. 30–50% of 2026 projects delayed.
- ai2.work: states rewrite utility tariffs. AEP Ohio queue; PGE Schedule 96.
- LBNL: rate designs for large loads (Aug 2026). Large-load tariff design.
- EPRI regulatory update. Dominion GS-5 load factor.
Change log
October 28, 2026. Preview edition (Pass 1): 84 campuses, impact ratings, PJM bill-cost estimate.
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