Data Center Impact Rating
One to four lightning bolts for how hard a data center campus will push on the power grid or the natural gas system by 2030. One bolt is a local effect. Four bolts reshapes a region.
The scale
| Rating | Power grid: grid-served load by 2030 | Natural gas: peak-day draw | Examples from the index |
|---|---|---|---|
Gigawatt-class | 800 MW or moreReshapes regional planning: new transmission, new generation, and upward pressure on capacity prices. | 120,000 Dth/d or moreOn-site or dedicated plants serving 550 MW or more. Pipeline-expansion territory. | Meta Hyperion, LA · grid + gasHomer City Energy Campus, PA · gasAmazon Northeast Creek, VA · grid |
Regional | 400 to 800 MWAbout the output of a large power plant. Needs new transmission and shows up in the utility’s resource plan. | 60,000 to 120,000 Dth/dOn-site plant serving roughly 275 to 550 MW. May need a new pipeline lateral. | Microsoft Fairwater 1, WI · gridMeta Prometheus, OH · grid + gasVantage Frontier, TX · grid + gas |
Utility-scale | 150 to 400 MWA dedicated substation and new high-voltage lines. Noticeable in the local utility’s plans. | 25,000 to 60,000 Dth/dOn-site plant serving roughly 115 to 275 MW, or a large share of a regional plant. | Compass Red Oak DFW III, TX · gridJoliet Technology Center, IL · gridAdams Fork Energy Campus, WV · gas |
Local | Under 150 MWUsually served by expanding an existing substation. | Under 25,000 Dth/dUnder about 115 MW of on-site generation. | TransAlta Keephills, AB · gridThis tier fills as campuses of 100 MW to 1 GW are added region by region. |
Thresholds are Discovery Energy’s judgment of where effects change in kind, set out with every other assumption in the methodology. Regional grid gas counts at half weight because it burns at plants spread across the region; on-site gas and plants built for the campus count in full.
How a campus gets its bolts
Estimate the load running by 2030
Announced capacity is converted to facility load, phased to 2030 and weighted by build stage.
Score the grid
The share of that load served from the grid sets the grid score.
Score the gas
On-site and dedicated plant gas, plus half of the regional grid gas, set the gas score on a peak day.
Take the higher score
The rating is labelled Grid, Gas, or Grid + gas when the two tie.
Show certainty
Solid bolts for operating or under-construction campuses; outlined bolts for announced or proposed ones.
Solid Outlined
84 campuses rated so far
20 rated 430 rated 332 rated 22 rated 1
The preview leans to 3 and 4 bolts because it starts with the largest projects. Ratings of 1 and 2 fill in as campuses between 100 MW and 1 GW are added. See every rated campus
What comes next, and what the rating leaves out
The same campus can matter more in one place than another
As each region is calibrated, a campus gains a bolt when it would use more than a quarter of the remaining pipeline headroom in our metro gas rating, or more than 5% of its utility’s peak. It loses one where the utility documents spare capacity.
Strain on the system is not the same as cost on your bill
Whether costs reach other customers depends on the market and on the utility’s large-load tariff, which the index shows beside the rating. How we estimate bill effects
Questions about the rating
Why rate on expected 2030 load instead of announced size?
Announced figures often describe decades of buildout or projects that never break ground. Rating the load we expect to be running by 2030 keeps a speculative 9 GW proposal from outranking a 1 GW campus that is already under construction.
What does “driven by gas” mean?
The campus scores higher on gas than on grid, usually because it plans its own turbines or fuel cells. Its load bypasses the power grid but draws directly on the local pipeline system.
Will a campus’s rating change?
Yes. Ratings move as projects advance or stall, as figures are verified, and as we add a local context adjustment that compares each campus with the remaining capacity of its utility and its metro’s gas system.
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